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Old 24-10-2012, 06:33   #1
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Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

Its nearing the start of the annual east coast migration south, and the weather situation is complex.

We have Sandy coming up the Atlantic coast. Its track is uncertain right now - with some models saying it will go out to Bermuda and others saying it will hit long island. The uncertainty reminds me a bit of TS Sean last year. In any case it will drve 30kt winds during at least the 10/27 to 10/31 period along the coast.

Here is the latest gfs model (one of the models forecasting it will go out to Bermuda) for 10/30: Click image for larger version

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Then, after Sandy (which is a long way away with limited forecast accuracy), most of the models have another low coming off the mainland. Here is the GFS for 11/1: Click image for larger version

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So, it will be worthwhile keeping a close eye on the weather. The range of outcomes is wider than normal.
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Old 24-10-2012, 06:38   #2
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

well far as I'm concerned I'm hoping it is just their normal forecast fear moguling to get us all worked up
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Old 24-10-2012, 06:43   #3
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

+1 i see the picton castle has delayed her departure from lunenberg due to weather concerns......not good if running on a schedule with paying passengers

https://www.facebook.com/picton.castle?fref=ts
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Old 24-10-2012, 13:20   #4
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

Caribbean1500/ARC Bahamas is scheduled to depart Hampton VA 11/4. Irish Rover will be participating on the Green Turtle Cay leg. I suspect there will be a lot of anxious eyes on this developing forecast.
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Old 24-10-2012, 13:45   #5
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

The Salty Dawg is due to leave Hampton on the 4th as well. Both delayed untilt he 10th and 11th last year, may be the same this year.
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Old 24-10-2012, 13:56   #6
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

schedules + cruisers = problems!
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Old 24-10-2012, 14:02   #7
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

East Coasters need to keep an eye on this one. Some predictions have the eye coming ashore around New Jersey.
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Old 24-10-2012, 14:29   #8
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

Yes, I was just looking at 500MB charts versus H Sandy's forecast route. Great example of the dramatic effect upper level winds/features can have on steering surface weather.
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Old 24-10-2012, 14:36   #9
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

Latest GFS model run:

10/29 closer CPA to the Ches Bay:

Click image for larger version

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10/31 recurve and hit the coast along Maine/Canadian border

Click image for larger version

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That keeps it windy along the coast thru 11/2

Click image for larger version

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11/5 Then small low forecast to move off the coast - but this is way out in forecast accuracy and not to be too worried about yet.

Click image for larger version

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Old 24-10-2012, 14:43   #10
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

best to get south of the chesapeake now and stay in the ICW
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Old 24-10-2012, 14:46   #11
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

with the azores high being replaced by the azores low!!!!! i can't see a significant change untill seawater temps drop mid atlantic will probably still be getting hurricanes in dec- january with the current weather model!

madagasgar had its first cyclone 2weeks ago,a full 2 months before cyclone season is due to start!
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Old 24-10-2012, 15:10   #12
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

seems like greenland is getting traditional azores weather at the moment!!!!

sailing europe atlantic (north) surface pressure (gfs) + 0 utc loop
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Old 24-10-2012, 15:20   #13
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

SANDY Spaghetti Models - still a few showing it going out to sea, but many of the models now showing east coast hits at various locations north of the Ches Bay (the most forecast southern track going right up the bay).

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Old 24-10-2012, 15:20   #14
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

we only die to schedules--do not ever sail to a schedule. bad stuff happens. be safe and leave when weather clears. or choose a different route--back east, you guys have icw and you have ocean. choose the least dangerous to begin and change after weather departs. have fun and be safe.
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Old 24-10-2012, 15:25   #15
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
we only die to schedules--do not ever sail to a schedule. bad stuff happens. be safe and leave when weather clears. or choose a different route--back east, you guys have icw and you have ocean. choose the least dangerous to begin and change after weather departs. have fun and be safe.
i hope vic has got his solar panels well fixed down.....
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