Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

[zeehag]

from another weather site--these guys are radical weather followers--interesting folks----


Quote:
Interesting discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the scenarios for New England and Mid Atlantic states.

The Northeast U.S. scenario

If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.

The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario

Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

Jeff Masters
__________________

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by estarzinger

That effect is incorporated in these models - it's why the storm is forecast to recurve to the west. The other interaction effect (beyond recurving) is to make the storm area bigger, but it is in fact not forecast (by most models) to make it absolutely stronger than it is - only to prevent the normal decay in intensity that occurs as these storms get out of the tropics.

Here is a chart showing the forecast storm intensity in a couple models:

Attachment 48770

The forecasters all seem in general agreement about all of this. No, the storm won't get stronger, but it will get bigger, and come together over the east coast super cities. The last prediction I saw showed the storm coming in over New Jersey, putting that NE sector over NY and Boston.

It's really pounding Miami, and my fingers are crossed over the boat I've been working on all summer. It is in an established mooring field, with chafing and four pennants, but it's a crowded mooring field. If one boat breaks loose ...

[zeehag]

the forecast is for blizzards in rhode island--this storm is going to grow in size and intensity as it morphs with the flow into new england....cold, snowy,icy, miserable windy weather--with 6-7 ft storm surge--
much more disabling to cities than is a simple hurrycame.

that which i posted is a quote from a true weather guru who studies storms specifically. the site i use is a bunch of radical storm followers--very accurate and very intelligent souls,not what is mouthed over radio and television.

the east coast of florida is only receiving a light dose of this storm as a tropical storm warning. the storm is miles off the coast=minimal damages.
this is a hurrycame and is going to ravage north of north carolina as such.
new york and new england are in line for some hellacious nasty weather from nature.
Hurricane SANDY

[estarzinger]

Don't know if I believe it, but here is one forecast for snow on 10/31 (the red areas):

[mbuckely]

Originally Posted by Richard5

Is she rigged fore and aft with 27 masts?

We are hoping our Irish Rover has better luck then the IR of song!!

[mbianka]

Well, I'm at the tail end of a fall cruise after taking my boat up the North River to see some of the fall colors:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: WHY I GO CRUISING.
I'm a days sail from the homeport here on Long Island. Though the forecast for the winds tomorrow are for only about 5 knots so I suspect it will be more of an electro sail for the thirty miles. At least I should be back on the mooring a day ahead of the storm. Not sure if NOAA is playing the "sky is falling" card or not. But, this is Nor' Easter season in these parts after all. It was only last year that the twentieth anniversary of the "perfect storm" was observed:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: NOR' EASTER SEASON AND THE PERFECT STORM
Some of the forecasts make it sound like this storm will curve back around like that one did. I'll definitely be putting an extra line on the mooring. Luckily, I'm in the north mooring field somewhat protected from the northeast winds predicted by a barrier beach. But, those same winds will also be pushing water into the harbor for several days. So I do have some concern that the high astronomical tides might lift the mooring off the bottom. Going to be a couple of nervous days for me and many others in this area. But, I'm glad I at least got to see some of the fall leaves while they were still on the trees.

[sailorboy1]

This is just like last year when one knocked out Halloween up here.

The marinas are already sending out panic emails

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by mbianka

Well, I'm at the tail end of a fall cruise after taking my boat up the North River to see some of the fall colors:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: WHY I GO CRUISING.
I'm a days sail from the homeport here on Long Island. Though the forecast for the winds tomorrow are for only about 5 knots so I suspect it will be more of an electro sail for the thirty miles. At least I should be back on the mooring a day ahead of the storm. Not sure if NOAA is playing the "sky is falling" card or not. But, this is Nor' Easter season in these parts after all. It was only last year that the twentieth anniversary of the "perfect storm" was observed:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: NOR' EASTER SEASON AND THE PERFECT STORM
Some of the forecasts make it sound like this storm will curve back around like that one did. I'll definitely be putting an extra line on the mooring. Luckily, I'm in the north mooring field somewhat protected from the northeast winds predicted by a barrier beach. But, those same winds will also be pushing water into the harbor for several days. So I do have some concern that the high astronomical tides might lift the mooring off the bottom. Going to be a couple of nervous days for me and many others in this area. But, I'm glad I at least got to see some of the fall leaves while they were still on the trees.

I really don't think they're playing "The sky is falling." I think this is one to pay attention to.

[mbianka]

Originally Posted by Rakuflames

I really don't think they're playing "The sky is falling." I think this is one to pay attention to.

Believe me I do take these storms seriously. In some ways they are worse than hurricanes because they stay around for days and everything takes a pounding. My beef is that the folks at NOAA are already talking about a "historic" storm but, then hedge on it because the computers don't agree. Huh? I think the NOAA old timers who looked at the data and maps and had a knowledge of previous storms have retired but, they were able to make reasoned guesses and the new kids won't commit unless the computers all agree. Saying the storm will hit anywhere from Maine to DC is not what I call pinpoint accuracy. So I prepare for the worst and hope for the best no matter what.

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by mbianka

Believe me I do take these storms seriously. In some ways they are worse than hurricanes because they stay around for days and everything takes a pounding. My beef is that the folks at NOAA are already talking about a "historic" storm but, then hedge on it because the computers don't agree. Huh? I think the NOAA old timers who looked at the data and maps and had a knowledge of previous storms have retired but, they were able to make reasoned guesses and the new kids won't commit unless the computers all agree. Saying the storm will hit anywhere from Maine to DC is not what I call pinpoint accuracy. So I prepare for the worst and hope for the best no matter what.

Well, I think that's what they're encouraging us to do ... prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. I'm on the west coast of Fl, and all we're getting from this storm is a SMALL amount of wind. But I stepped out of my boat tonight, and someone's headsail was partly unfurled. It was really flapping around. A neighbor and I got on his boat, and rolled it back in, and then put another line around it the opposite way. I've only seen one other owner come down to check on their boat.

[zeehag]

ok. from hudson river valley area--
Hudson Valley Weather

To be blunt and to hopefully clear up what has certainly been an information download of a day. This storm is very serious, and although there is time for things to change it is important to know that this storm will likely be larger then Irene is size, more powerful then Irene and move slower then Irene, it is a completely different monster and should not be taken lightly. As far as who in what area can expect to see an impact? The storm is currently 1600 miles across and everybody will fell its effects. What we should all be doing is utilizing the fact that not only was this storm mentioned here on Sunday,but now we still have 5 days to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If you end up with some extra candles and batteries then so be it, but to not take advantage of having advanced knowledge of what may be a very serious storm is not something that is recommended. For the first time in history all National Weather Stations are launching extra weather balloons, the storm is striking on a full moon which will lead to worse coastal flooding. It has the potential to dump 6-12 inches of rain over a 24 hour period with and even longer period of damaging winds possible. So to sum it up it does not matter where you live, if you are in the Hudson Valley you should be aware of this threat and have a plan in place if the worst is to happen.

considering that this is not a storm that is touching any part of florida, and is expected to hit new york city and philadelphia strongly, perhaps these locations would like to hear what is going on and predicted to hit them.
i would also concern myself with the folks on the islands off eastern florida, in sandy's path.
sandys path is quit wide and quite nasty. hide--if on long island--please please find a good hiding place. you are in wrong place this time. sunday is due...call in sick and move boats.....

[s/vfootloose]

Rakuflames, don't stress to much about S. Fl. The news media love to blow these things up. Its blowing when a band comes thru but its only 20/30 mph with the highest gust at 50 mph. The NE looks to be a lot different. A more perfect storm as it were. They have hurricanes down fairly well. They are saying we have never seen this before and don't have any computer models to make a prediction so we really don't know how bad it will be.

[estarzinger]

No major change overnight.

Ht somewhere between Delaware and long island. The models that have been more consistent have leaned toward the southern side of this range.

Big enough storm that it will be windy over a wide area no matter where the precise hit is.

The snow forecast has been backed off a bit, not reaching the Ches Bay now.

Still looks like things clear up after 2/11 and possible departure south. The gulf stream may be a bit bumpy with the left over sea state.

[mbianka]

Originally Posted by estarzinger

No major change overnight.

Ht somewhere between Delaware and long island. The models that have been more consistent have leaned toward the southern side of this range.

Big enough storm that it will be windy over a wide area no matter where the precise hit is.

The snow forecast has been backed off a bit, not reaching the Ches Bay now.

Still looks like things clear up after 2/11 and possible departure south. The gulf stream may be a bit bumpy with the left over sea state.

Attachment 48805

Calling for 20 to 25 knots here on Long Island. Not so bad except it may be for three days! More worried about the coastal flooding as the NE winds keep the water piled up in the harbor and with a full moon on Monday that's not good. Not much you can do when the boat picks up your mooring and decides to move. Hope that does not happen.

[estarzinger]

Basic track unchanged overnight. Perhaps a bit more consensus on a landfall just north of the delaware bay.

Primary models forecast for deltaville is also pretty much the same . . . WInd building starting Saturday night and into Sunday (NE going to N), peak around 2am Monday (N 30kts gusting to 45kts), then declining thru Tuesday (NW to W).

However, with some of the more northerly possible tracks, there is a possibility of decent SW winds on the 30th (Tuesday), so I would hope to have an anchorage with primary protection from N/NW but also decent protection from W/SW.


10/30:


Weather still forecast to clear off by 11/2


11/2:


And, while this is too far a way to be accurate, the next (weak) system is forecast to come thru on 11/6. SO, potential departure window between 11/2 - 11/6, and 11/3 would be my initial thought - to let the sea state over teh gulf stream settle but also get me as far out to sea as possible before the next system. But that's all very tentative given we still don't know where Sandy will come to shore.


11/6: