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Old 13-09-2013, 07:56   #1
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In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
WHILE THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
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Old 13-09-2013, 08:04   #2
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

Charlotte and I have been watching that thing for a couple of days now. It started at a 10-20%, moving north, ready to collide into the mainland before it started spinning and getting power.

There's another low on the Atlantic side that I'm hoping sucks it into the land and gets it off the water quick.

The "M" named Pacific cyclones are historically a bunch of bastards. The last name we used up was Lorena, so Manuel is next.
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Old 13-09-2013, 08:13   #3
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

Quote:
Originally Posted by rebel heart View Post
Charlotte and I have been watching that thing for a couple of days now. It started at a 10-20%, moving north, ready to collide into the mainland before it started spinning and getting power.

There's another low on the Atlantic side that I'm hoping sucks it into the land and gets it off the water quick.

The "M" named Pacific cyclones are historically a bunch of bastards. The last name we used up was Lorena, so Manuel is next.
Correct me if I'm Wrong.

But, don't systems trend north to northwest in your part of the world? If the system in the Bay of Campche has any effect, won't it be to possibly reduce the westward component, but not necessarily enough to draw it over land? This suggests the system that concerns you may not pass westward from Baja?

Hope you're right. But.
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Old 13-09-2013, 08:20   #4
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

the bay of campeche storming problems have minimal impact on west coast of mexio--in other words--those in golfo de california aka sea of cortez do not have to worry about them. is the ones in pacific that we need concern ourselves with
the eastern mexico storms will go to brownsville teejass and rain on them.
we only need concern ourselves with east mexico storms when they are still at tehuantepec.
should a east mexico storm travel across mexico at any point, that storm will be only scattered tboomers and rain.
fist summer in mexico teaches you this, unless you are a weather watcher, and geology afficionado, in which case it will be obvious and understood.

we have another formation trying to become letter m -- we see what it brings as develops.
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Old 13-09-2013, 08:49   #5
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wrong View Post
Correct me if I'm Wrong.

But, don't systems trend north to northwest in your part of the world? If the system in the Bay of Campche has any effect, won't it be to possibly reduce the westward component, but not necessarily enough to draw it over land? This suggests the system that concerns you may not pass westward from Baja?

Hope you're right. But.
Well if you look at it, it's currently sitting directly south under the mainland. So if it tracks north, it goes up into land and loses heat-moisture. If it peels west or stays off the coast nw, it will stay over water and build.

The interaction with the Bay of Campche low was from NOAA's forecast discussion; they were the ones commenting on it being drawn towards the low. In fact the current advisory is still issuing warnings for southern and eastern Mexico.

What I've noticed from watching these guys, especially when looking at the larger weather charts, is that they are heavily influenced by low pressure troughs, wind shear, and the jet stream. Just looking at a cyclone's track it seems like they're a drunk staggering through an alleyway, but if you look at the surrounding pressure systems and wind shear the movement becomes more predictable.
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Old 13-09-2013, 09:28   #6
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

There you go, nnw bound track, headed towards the low.

edit: "influenced by" the low is much more appropriate

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Old 13-09-2013, 11:25   #7
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

Quote:
Originally Posted by rebel heart View Post
There you go, nnw bound track, headed towards the low.

edit: "influenced by" the low is much more appropriate

Attachment 67147
Looks good. Hopefully it continues the trend overland and once weakened doesn't reform.
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Old 13-09-2013, 17:45   #8
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

we here in barra de navidad hope for no further north westward movement of this system prior to heading inland--it is good where is it--south of port of lazaro cardenas and north of zihuatenejo/ixtapa.
barra de navidad is 20 miles north of manzanillo.

rh's "cone of death" does not include us here in barra, but the one nhc posted does......

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3...track#contents

storm 2k:
Quote:
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BALL OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE ABOUT 35 KT...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
WHILE THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS SMALL...THE
CIRCULATION OF MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC
GYRE THAT CONTAINS LOTS OF STRONG WINDS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS STRUCTURE MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST
TRICKY SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
FROM ASCAT...MANUEL SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND
THE NHC PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT THE UPPER END
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

INSTEAD OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING...IT SEEMS
LIKE MANUEL IS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/5. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE STORM SHOULD TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN
RELATIVELY SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS GROWN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE
NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISING
IF FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
mpre from storm 2k---
Quote:
I would give this a 25% chance of becoming a hurricane, because the official NHC forecast calls for some fairly quick deepening right up until landfall. The forecasted peak of 60 mph, even if it doesn't go above that, is just 14 mph away from hurricane strength, so we definitely can't rule out a hurricane. I also find it very unique that this has winds of 40 mph, yet a pressure of 998 mbar, more consistent with a 60 mph storm. When it reaches 60 mph, we may see it with a pressure of 990 mbar or less! :crazyeyes:
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Old 13-09-2013, 18:02   #9
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

North Central Texas can use a hurricane to replenish its reservoirs and lakes. Lake Grapevine's (near Dallas/Fort Worth) water level is down by 8 feet, thus reducing sailing activities; many boat ramps are closed.

Zee, blow some wind this way! Texas will thank you for it!

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Old 13-09-2013, 18:25   #10
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

Hopefully the wind stays in the < 50 knot range, and there's not more than 1 foot of rain in a day. Anything more than that and it's just a real beast to deal with.

When are the outer bands supposed to start making contact? Tomorrow?
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Old 13-09-2013, 18:43   #11
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

we already have weather from it-as usual. our winds are coming from an entirely different direction than usual, even for tormentas.
my current views--we are at the border of jalisco and colima estados, 20 miles north of manzanillo.
south


west of us---


east
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Old 13-09-2013, 18:51   #12
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

Well good luck with it and hopefully it's not one of the big suckers that really does some damage. I think Mexico (western, anyway) has been pretty lucky this year. Ivo took out some homes around here, knocked out the road for a week, and other such non-life-threatening events.

I was reading up on Kenna the other day. I was in San Blas in the spring and it was amazing seeing how much has been rebuilt. San Blas was literally wiped off the map.

Hurricane Kenna - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 13-09-2013, 19:03   #13
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

we shouldnt have a problem, but i am hoping zihuatenejo and ixtapa come through ok..
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Old 13-09-2013, 19:14   #14
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

Gee Zee! Your photos of the marina are surprising...where have all the boats gone!?
The place was packed when I went through there last year!
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Old 13-09-2013, 19:24   #15
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Re: In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

there is no one here--only 3 living aboard their boats--lol---was very expensive until now --summer happened and everyone disappeared--i love it!!!
for storms we get more boats, but there is no one here this year.
there were folks staying in ixtapa and acapulco and manzanillo this year, i understand from grapevine network 3...some souls straggle in early and some wait until end december to come in. i will return to the lagoon in as soon as these storms cease and desist---i am almost mobile!
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