Hurricane Frances next ...

**GordMay** · 30-08-2004, 03:19

Hurricane Frances

In the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane “Frances” had sustained winds of 135 mph about 550 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the southeastern Caribbean .

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Following Leeward Islands By Their Governments...Antigua...Barbuda...St Maarten... Anguilla...Nevis...St Kitts...St Eustatius And Saba. St Martin And St Barthelemy May Also Be Threatened. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Some Of These Islands Later Today.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For The British And Northern U.S. Virgin Islands Including St Thomas...St John And Surrounding Islands...Also For The Islands Of Culebra And Vieques. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 36 Hours. A Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Puerto Rico Later Today.

Monday, August 5, At 5 AM Ast. (0900 zulu)
The Center Of Hurricane Frances Was Located Near
Latitude 19.0 North x Longitude 57.3 West
Or About 385 Miles(620 Km)East Of The Northern Leeward Islands.

Frances Is Moving Toward The West Near 10 Mph (17 Km/Hr) And This Motion Is Expected To Continue With Some Increase In Forward Speed Today. Possible landfall in continental USA by Labour Day Weekend.

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 120 Mph (195 Km/Hr) With Higher Gusts. However...Some Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles (140 Km) From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles (205 Km).

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By The Hurricane Hunter Is 958 Mb (28.29 Inches).

Hurricane Frances Advisiories &Tracking Maps:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/251432.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap.../300853.shtml?
http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/trackwind.html

“Gaston” - the hurricane season's seventh named storm -- had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph when it hit land (S.C.) but was down to 45 mph by early Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102004
0900Z MON AUG 30 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR
20.1N x 124.0W (AT 0900Z)
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 282 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 124.0W

exposure · 31-08-2004, 12:40

I have figured out that there is a zero percent chance that I will be hit by Frances...

How many times have they been exactly correct with the 5 day position forecast??? 0%...

Currently the 5 day forecast puts the hurricane exactly on my house at 8AM on Sunday...

Therefore there is a zero percent chance of this hurricane hitting my house (and boat).

Woody

Alan Wheeler · 31-08-2004, 14:10

Isn't it a direct result of whether yopu have insurance or not. If you have insurance, it won't hit, if you don't have insurance, it will hit. I believe the insurance comopany is owned by a guy called Murphy

BC Mike · 31-08-2004, 15:35

Another Tanzer owner just lost his house and the T22 is badly damaged. It was his first boat. Flying wood punched holes in the hull. The rig is toast along with the railings and motor. BC Mike C

Amphibian · 02-09-2004, 04:17

"Your" hurricanes always make the daily news here, probably because there are quite a number of Norwegians living or vacationing in FLA.

I occasionally take a look at the satellite image loop, and the speed by which these critters grow and travel, is unbelievable. Everything is big in the US of A!

At least this one has a proper (female) name. If she starts making sudden and unexplicable changes in course and temper, she'll live up to it...

Do hope our friends over there on the east coast will not see too much damage. Good luck to ya all!

**GordMay** · 02-09-2004, 04:44

Woody asks (comments):
”... How many times have they been exactly correct with the 5 day position forecast??? 0% ...”

From the NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

”... NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information. ...”

Note that the 60-70% accuracy clain is fore the outer UNCERTAINTY area.

CSY Man · 02-09-2004, 04:47

Aye mates.

Frances is sure coming this way.
I am going to be busy all day securing boats: Last minute we string lines across the canals to keep the boats from being crushed into the seawalls or docks.

Proper female name?
Indeed, they should never have started to give 'canes male names in the name of politically correctnes: When fury and hell is a-coming, its got to be a female involved...

Harriet · 02-09-2004, 04:56

Just want to wish everyone on Florida's east coast good luck. And for those of you in the Ft. Lauderdale, Ft. Pierce, Palm Beach, Vero Beach areas - GET OUT NOW. Boats are replaceable, you are not.

Vasco · 02-09-2004, 06:24

My brand new boat is in Jacksonville. Latest reports indicate a more southerly landfall than originally forecast. Of course nobody really knows where it will hit land but with hurricane force winds out 80 miles from the center and tropical storm winds 185 miles from the center this is one mother of a storm that I fear will affect the area no matter where the landfall is. Our best bet is that it cuts straight across the peninsula and out into the gulf. Everyone hopes it'll hit somwhere else. I was down there a few weeks ago and Charley started coming our way, luckily for us it took a sharp turn and went through Daytona rather than Jacksonville and we didn't get anything over 20 knots but that was a very small hurricane.

CSY Man · 02-09-2004, 18:50

Quote:

GET OUT NOW. Boats are replaceable, you are not.

Negative....Ain't getting out.

Need to look after my boat....

Been busy all day preparing 6 boats for the storm.

Almost donem sleeping good tonight.

Amphibian · 03-09-2004, 05:31

Look at this full-bodied fury:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA...-ir4-loop.html

Although I'd never fear for the old salt from Norway.

Edited 20:35: Holy s**, man. It's hitting, big time! Yikes! Best of luck.

CSY Man · 03-09-2004, 16:09

No Hon, it did not hit my necks of the wood, although we'd been busy preparing for a possible direct hit.

Now the thing is slightly North and 200 East of us.

Lucky again.

BC Mike · 03-09-2004, 16:19

We had 26000 folks evacuated here in Kelowna during the great fire of 004 but that is a bit short of 2.5 million. Must be an incredible sight to see. Hope everyone survives okay. BC Mike C

exposure · 03-09-2004, 18:46

It's been pointing straight at us for the last couple of days. It should make a turn inland and pass south of us. The waves out our back window here are looking pretty big, and it's still 400 miles away. I have the boat well tied and some hurricane panels on the house just in case.

Amphibian · 07-09-2004, 02:48

If she didn't tear the wig from your head and the sails from your boat, she sure made a nice try at drowning you. Whew.

30-08-2004, 03:19	#1
GordMay Administrator Site Administrator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W Boat: C.L.O.D. (Cruiser Living On Dirt) Posts: 9,307 Images: 230	Hurricane Frances next ... Hurricane Frances In the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane “Frances” had sustained winds of 135 mph about 550 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the southeastern Caribbean . A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Following Leeward Islands By Their Governments...Antigua...Barbuda...St Maarten... Anguilla...Nevis...St Kitts...St Eustatius And Saba. St Martin And St Barthelemy May Also Be Threatened. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Some Of These Islands Later Today. A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For The British And Northern U.S. Virgin Islands Including St Thomas...St John And Surrounding Islands...Also For The Islands Of Culebra And Vieques. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 36 Hours. A Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Puerto Rico Later Today. Monday, August 5, At 5 AM Ast. (0900 zulu) The Center Of Hurricane Frances Was Located Near Latitude 19.0 North x Longitude 57.3 West Or About 385 Miles(620 Km)East Of The Northern Leeward Islands. Frances Is Moving Toward The West Near 10 Mph (17 Km/Hr) And This Motion Is Expected To Continue With Some Increase In Forward Speed Today. Possible landfall in continental USA by Labour Day Weekend. Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 120 Mph (195 Km/Hr) With Higher Gusts. However...Some Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 24 Hours. Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles (140 Km) From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles (205 Km). The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By The Hurricane Hunter Is 958 Mb (28.29 Inches). Hurricane Frances Advisiories &Tracking Maps: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/251432.shtml http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap.../300853.shtml? http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/trackwind.html “Gaston” - the hurricane season's seventh named storm -- had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph when it hit land (S.C.) but was down to 45 mph by early Sunday afternoon. *Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific:* TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102004 0900Z MON AUG 30 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N x 124.0W (AT 0900Z) POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 282 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 124.0W __________________ Gord May ~~_/)_~~ (Gord & Maggie - "Southbound") "If you didn't have time/$ to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"

31-08-2004, 12:40	#2
exposure Registered User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Fernandina Beach, Fl Boat: Prout 37 Snowgoose Elite Posts: 367 Images: 11	I have figured out that there is a zero percent chance that I will be hit by Frances... How many times have they been exactly correct with the 5 day position forecast??? 0%... Currently the 5 day forecast puts the hurricane exactly on my house at 8AM on Sunday... Therefore there is a zero percent chance of this hurricane hitting my house (and boat). Woody __________________ S/V Exposure, Prout Snowgoose Elite 37 Last edited by exposure; 31-08-2004 at 18:28.

31-08-2004, 14:10	#3
Alan Wheeler Registered User Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Marlborough Sounds. New Zealand Boat: Hartley Tahitian 45ft. Leisure Lady Posts: 8,044 Images: 102	Isn't it a direct result of whether yopu have insurance or not. If you have insurance, it won't hit, if you don't have insurance, it will hit. I believe the insurance comopany is owned by a guy called Murphy __________________ Wheels For God so loved the world..........He didn't send a committee.

31-08-2004, 15:35	#4
BC Mike Registered User Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Kelowna BC Boat: Tanzer 8.5m Tanzer 22 Posts: 1,029 Images: 5	Hurricane Another Tanzer owner just lost his house and the T22 is badly damaged. It was his first boat. Flying wood punched holes in the hull. The rig is toast along with the railings and motor. BC Mike C

02-09-2004, 04:44	#6
GordMay Administrator Site Administrator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W Boat: C.L.O.D. (Cruiser Living On Dirt) Posts: 9,307 Images: 230	Woody asks (comments): ”... How many times have they been exactly correct with the 5 day position forecast??? 0% ...” From the NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ”... NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information. ...” Note that the 60-70% accuracy clain is fore the outer UNCERTAINTY area. __________________ Gord May ~~_/)_~~ (Gord & Maggie - "Southbound") "If you didn't have time/$ to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"

02-09-2004, 04:17	#5
Amphibian Captain Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Norway Posts: 57	"Your" hurricanes always make the daily news here, probably because there are quite a number of Norwegians living or vacationing in FLA. I occasionally take a look at the satellite image loop, and the speed by which these critters grow and travel, is unbelievable. Everything is big in the US of A! At least this one has a proper (female) name. If she starts making sudden and unexplicable changes in course and temper, she'll live up to it... Do hope our friends over there on the east coast will not see too much damage. Good luck to ya all!

02-09-2004, 04:47	#7
CSY Man Registered User Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Ft. Lauderdale Boat: CSY 33 Cutter, "Rhapsody" Posts: 1,744 Images: 45	Aye mates. Frances is sure coming this way. I am going to be busy all day securing boats: Last minute we string lines across the canals to keep the boats from being crushed into the seawalls or docks. Proper female name? Indeed, they should never have started to give 'canes male names in the name of politically correctnes: When fury and hell is a-coming, its got to be a female involved...

02-09-2004, 04:56	#8
Harriet Registered User Join Date: May 2003 Location: Caribbean Boat: 2004 Manta 42 - Perseverance Posts: 281	Just want to wish everyone on Florida's east coast good luck. And for those of you in the Ft. Lauderdale, Ft. Pierce, Palm Beach, Vero Beach areas - GET OUT NOW. Boats are replaceable, you are not.

02-09-2004, 06:24	#9
Vasco Registered User Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Toronto in summer, further south in winter. Boat: CS36Merlin, "La Belle Aurore" Ben393 "Breathless" Posts: 1,797 Images: 34	Jacksonville My brand new boat is in Jacksonville. Latest reports indicate a more southerly landfall than originally forecast. Of course nobody really knows where it will hit land but with hurricane force winds out 80 miles from the center and tropical storm winds 185 miles from the center this is one mother of a storm that I fear will affect the area no matter where the landfall is. Our best bet is that it cuts straight across the peninsula and out into the gulf. Everyone hopes it'll hit somwhere else. I was down there a few weeks ago and Charley started coming our way, luckily for us it took a sharp turn and went through Daytona rather than Jacksonville and we didn't get anything over 20 knots but that was a very small hurricane. __________________ Rick I Toronto

03-09-2004, 05:31	#11
Amphibian Captain Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Norway Posts: 57	Look at this full-bodied fury: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA...-ir4-loop.html Although I'd never fear for the old salt from Norway. Edited 20:35: Holy s**, man. It's hitting, big time! Yikes! Best of luck.

03-09-2004, 16:09	#12
CSY Man Registered User Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Ft. Lauderdale Boat: CSY 33 Cutter, "Rhapsody" Posts: 1,744 Images: 45	No Hon, it did not hit my necks of the wood, although we'd been busy preparing for a possible direct hit. Now the thing is slightly North and 200 East of us. Lucky again.

03-09-2004, 16:19	#13
BC Mike Registered User Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Kelowna BC Boat: Tanzer 8.5m Tanzer 22 Posts: 1,029 Images: 5	Evactuation We had 26000 folks evacuated here in Kelowna during the great fire of 004 but that is a bit short of 2.5 million. Must be an incredible sight to see. Hope everyone survives okay. BC Mike C

03-09-2004, 18:46	#14
exposure Registered User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Fernandina Beach, Fl Boat: Prout 37 Snowgoose Elite Posts: 367 Images: 11	It's been pointing straight at us for the last couple of days. It should make a turn inland and pass south of us. The waves out our back window here are looking pretty big, and it's still 400 miles away. I have the boat well tied and some hurricane panels on the house just in case. __________________ S/V Exposure, Prout Snowgoose Elite 37

07-09-2004, 02:48	#15
Amphibian Captain Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Norway Posts: 57	Never say never about anything with a female name. If she didn't tear the wig from your head and the sails from your boat, she sure made a nice try at drowning you. Whew.

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