Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 22-03-2014, 13:12   #46
Registered User
 
ka4wja's Avatar

Join Date: May 2007
Location: Florida
Boat: Catalina 470
Posts: 2,033
Re: First time offshore

Mike,
I'm sure these friends that you've known for 20 years are good friends and are good sailors as well...so, no worries there...


But...when you write something like this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by irishmike View Post
they are well known as top class sailors here in Newport, so no worries there.
Alarms bells go off in my head!!




Chuck beat me to this here...
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckr View Post
-- great sailors in newport? not sure what that means -- we met a lot of great sailors in the annapolis who could get around cans but could for the life of them not find their way out of the chesapeake -- and let's not even talk about a night sail -- just found your comment on that interesting
I have also met my share of "top class sailors" who can't chart a course, don't know what magnetic variation is, think lines of long are the same distance from each other everywhere, etc. as well as have never sailed at night, nor anything longer than to/from Block Island...
(I grew up in S. Florida, and cruising the Bahamas, Caribbean, Atlantic and Med....but went to college up there and I met a lot of "top class sailors" who I wouldn't trust to park my car!!
And, even recently, I met a couple in the Bahamas that were apparently well-known in the Newport sailing community, who were bragging that they were able to get all the way from RI to the Bahamas and never needed to sail at night!! Seriously, that's a true story!!!)



So, while I can't speak for Chuck, my point here is that there is a BIG difference between "top class sailors" in Newport and those capable, competent, and experienced for an offshore delivery in the N. Atlantic!!

Again, I'm sure you're friends are great guys, but just being "top class sailors" in Newport is a fairly moot point for most offshore sailing...
(ever read his comments, or seen the old videos, of Dennis Conner attempting a Whitbread or Volvo leg??? Nuff said!)



Mike, Fair winds, and have a great trip!!!

John
s/v Annie Laurie


P.S. Chuck, I think you are the better writer...
__________________

__________________
ka4wja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22-03-2014, 13:17   #47
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Newport RI
Boat: Pearson 303
Posts: 19
Re: First time offshore

Chuckr. I should have said that these guys were charter captains in the Caribbean for years, and have crossed the Atlantic several times, but that they are well known locally.......and yes, no alcohol is allowed.
__________________

__________________
irishmike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22-03-2014, 13:23   #48
Senior Cruiser
 
tartansail's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Tiverton, RI, USA
Boat: ex-Tartan 40
Posts: 614
Images: 1
Re: First time offshore

While it's fair to question anyone's qualifications, not all the races out of Newport are around the buoys. Newport to Bermuda will expose boats to the joys of crossing the Gulf Stream which can be a piece of cake or pretty gnarly depending on the winds. I have a hard time imagining the owner of a Hinckley 52 handing his boat over to an inexperienced captain for an early Spring passage.

I'd be more concerned about Skipmac's weather forecast. That's not at all unusual between now and mid-May. Fortunately, Bermuda is well-placed to lay over if the weather is unfavorable for crossing the Stream.
__________________
- David
S/V Sapphire Tartan 40 #71

tartansail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 08:37   #49
Senior Cruiser
 
tartansail's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Tiverton, RI, USA
Boat: ex-Tartan 40
Posts: 614
Images: 1
Re: First time offshore

For those who might wonder why some of us want good weather info in this part of the Atlantic this time of year, take a look at today's map:

This doesn't show that it's 28 degrees F and spitting some frozen water crap here in southern New England. A good day to hole up somewhere with a Dark 'n' Stormy and wait for a better day.
__________________
- David
S/V Sapphire Tartan 40 #71

tartansail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 09:02   #50
Senior Cruiser
 
skipmac's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: 29 49.16 N 82 25.82 W
Boat: Pearson 422
Posts: 12,374
Re: First time offshore

Seems like NOAA forecast was on the money.

Have not heard from the OP lately. I do hope he makes the trip but at the same time, if he does I hope the captains will be willing to hang in Bermuda or detour to the US coast if the weather isn't good for the last half.
__________________
The water is always bluer on the other side of the ocean.
skipmac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 10:08   #51
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Newport RI
Boat: Pearson 303
Posts: 19
Re: First time offshore

OMG, I have been watching this develop so quickly. If we had been offshore a couple of hundred miles, there would have been no way to avoid it methinks. Thoughts? Douse sails and heave to? I am just an extra pair of hands and eyes so have to trust whatever Captain says or wants...
__________________
irishmike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 11:34   #52
Senior Cruiser
 
skipmac's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: 29 49.16 N 82 25.82 W
Boat: Pearson 422
Posts: 12,374
Re: First time offshore

Quote:
Originally Posted by irishmike View Post
OMG, I have been watching this develop so quickly. If we had been offshore a couple of hundred miles, there would have been no way to avoid it methinks. Thoughts? Douse sails and heave to? I am just an extra pair of hands and eyes so have to trust whatever Captain says or wants...
Depending on the boat, how it handles (some do well running, some do better bow to) there are a lot of options for storm tactics. I would hope that the captains are experienced in the various options and which one to adopt with this boat and the conditions at the time.

I read your report on their sailing experience and maybe I'm drawing conclusions based on an incomplete understanding of their trip planning but it sounded like they were not really concerned about weather for this trip. That to me is a big red flag. This time of year in general and especially this winter, a very, very close watch on the weather in particular on the northern end of this trip is critical.

Unless this caught you in the middle of the Gulf Stream it doesn't look like a survival storm, just very uncomfortable. However, these winds from the north against the north flowing Gulf Stream could generate very large, steep, breaking waves. Not a place I would want to be in any boat.

This could be the last gasp for this winter's storms and this could end up a fantastic trip so you shouldn't cancel unless you have serious doubts about the captains plans for weather watch. But if it was me I would make 100% certain that they were ready to lay over, detour or even abort if there was a chance of another Nor'easter blowing through before you reached RI.

Good luck and do let us know how it works out.
__________________
The water is always bluer on the other side of the ocean.
skipmac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 11:34   #53
Senior Cruiser
 
tartansail's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Tiverton, RI, USA
Boat: ex-Tartan 40
Posts: 614
Images: 1
Re: First time offshore

Quote:
Originally Posted by irishmike View Post
OMG, I have been watching this develop so quickly. If we had been offshore a couple of hundred miles, there would have been no way to avoid it methinks. Thoughts? Douse sails and heave to? I am just an extra pair of hands and eyes so have to trust whatever Captain says or wants...
Lots has been written about the options for surviving weather like this without there being a single answer for all boats and conditions. That said, avoiding being out there is your best bet.

The intensity of this storm is a bit more than anticipated, but not the storm itself. The reason several of us were reassured by your captains' willingness to go into Bermuda (you can see the dot just east of 65 deg W at about 32 deg N) is that it allows you to avoid almost all the bad weather by picking your window safely. You will have a very good read on a three day forecast with decreasing certainty beyond that. Three days will easily get you north of the Gulf Stream and could have you all the way home on a Hinckley 52.

About ten years ago I helped deliver a friend's boat south on this route. The captain/owner was an airline pilot and a good weather router and skipper. We waited four days after our projected departure in late October because of gales in the same area as today's storm. When the bad weather moved East we headed out and had a spectacular sail. Huge, but benign, seas from the weather to our East and great reaching westerlies had us flying. With a favorable eddy from the Gulf Stream, we had a couple of daily runs over 200 miles on a 46 foot monohull. When we tied up on the wall at St George's there was a tired looking sloop on the wall and a lot of stuff spread out on the grass. It turned out the boat had come down single-handed from Rockland, ME and had sailed right into the bad weather we had waited out. The sailor had come in a day before us and still looked like he had seen ghosts. His masthead light had gone out when it had buried in a wave during a knockdown. He had shipped enough water that nothing on board was dry and a lot was no longer identifiable. Fortunately, his boat was solid and he had made it through. His trip would have been a lot different if he had just waited and left 72 hours later.
__________________
- David
S/V Sapphire Tartan 40 #71

tartansail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 11:42   #54
Senior Cruiser
 
tartansail's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Tiverton, RI, USA
Boat: ex-Tartan 40
Posts: 614
Images: 1
Re: First time offshore

Quote:
Originally Posted by skipmac View Post
Unless this caught you in the middle of the Gulf Stream it doesn't look like a survival storm, just very uncomfortable. However, these winds from the north against the north flowing Gulf Stream could generate very large, steep, breaking waves. Not a place I would want to be in any boat.
.
I read that NOAA chart as 70-85 knot winds near the center with seas up to 50 feet (remembering that is the average height of the tallest 1/3 of seas so many will be higher). That's hurricane conditions with air temps likely around freezing. For me, that's a lot closer to survival conditions than I have any interest in experiencing.
__________________
- David
S/V Sapphire Tartan 40 #71

tartansail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 11:43   #55
Registered User
 
ka4wja's Avatar

Join Date: May 2007
Location: Florida
Boat: Catalina 470
Posts: 2,033
Re: First time offshore

Mike,
The main idea is to get a forecast enough in advance to avoid being in the wrong place at the wrong time...
Quote:
Originally Posted by irishmike View Post
OMG, I have been watching this develop so quickly. If we had been offshore a couple of hundred miles, there would have been no way to avoid it methinks. Thoughts? Douse sails and heave to? I am just an extra pair of hands and eyes so have to trust whatever Captain says or wants...
And, this time of year listening to the weather forecasts at least once daily is the minimum that's usually done....and 2 - 3 times, daily is always what I recommend...

{Maybe now more sailors will believe me, when I give recommendations / advice for Atlantic crossings and I write of the Lows coming off the continent (that can really kick you in the butt), as being more of an issue than "tropical" weather (which has better predictability and generally moves much slower)!!}




And, for further clarification, when I wrote this here, I was making the assumption that the captain would be listening to / looking at, the weather forecasts a couple times a day, for a few days (to a week) before departure, AND a few times per day while at sea...(and sail a course that would allow plenty of searoom to heave-to, and/or allow putting into a safe harbor if needed (Bermuda?)....
Quote:
Originally Posted by ka4wja View Post
The USCG HF VOICE Weather Broadcasts, 4 times a day on multiple freqs, is all that is really needed....
Listen to the morning and evening forecasts for a day or two BEFORE departing, and then once or twice a day when enroute....
And, you're good-to-go!!

USCG HF Voice

And, in reality, you don't NEED the radio or Voice weather broadcasts.....that SW-52 will get you to Newport in great shape and in fine style!!!
And, even if you did get caught in the ****, the SW-52 will survive and get 'ya home....



Just to give you an idea of what the HF Voice weather forecasts would be like.....here are the transcripts from this morning...
Quote:
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC WED MAR 26 2014
CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
PAN PAN
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MAR 26
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MAR 27
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MAR 28
.WARNINGS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 40N67W 961 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. BETWEEN 60 AND 180 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS
WINDS 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM
N...240 NM W...420 NM S AND 300 NM SE QUADRANTS...AND FROM 37N
TO 42N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W...WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30
FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 75W AND A LINE FROM
46N60W TO 40N51W TO 31N56W...WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N65W 951 MB. BETWEEN 60 AND 180 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 65 TO 90 KT. SEAS 24 TO 36 FT W AND 30 TO 45 FT
S QUADRANTS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N59W 958 MB WITH FRONT FROM 53N56W TO
41N38W. WITHIN 420 NM S AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55
FT. SEAS 30 TO 45 FT...EXCEPT 18 TO 36 FT W OF 60W. WITHIN 300
NM N OF THE FRONT SE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM W...1080 NM S...900 NM E...AND 720 NM NE
QUADRANTS...WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT...EXCEPT 26 TO
42 FT S QUADRANT N OF 35N AND 8 TO 16 FT IN THE E AND NE
QUADRANTS. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N54W 979 MB WITH FRONT FROM
59N44W TO 53N35W. FROM 59N TO 61N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W E WINDS 50
TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. FROM 59N TO 61N W OF 52W...WINDS 35
TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND NE OF
THE FRONT...BETWEEN 120 AND 300 NM N QUADRANT AND 420 NM N OF A
LINE FROM 39N38W TO 46N57W...WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26
FT. ELSEWHERE OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS N OF A LINE 43N60W
TO 34N43W TO 38N35W...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
.LOW 63N39W 973 MB MOVING NE 20 KT AND SLOWING. OVER ICE FREE
FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 180 AND 300 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 70
KT. SEAS 22 TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. ALSO WITHIN 420 NM SW AND
960 NM S QUADRANTS AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER W OF
35W...WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT...EXCEPT 8 TO 12 FT W
OF 50W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 65N35W 1005 MB. FROM 58N TO 60N E OF 43W
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
.MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS
N AND W OF A LINE FROM 60N46W TO 58N57W TO 51N48W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY N OF A LINE
FROM 60N45W TO 56N57W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF A LINE
FROM 62N55W TO 57N58W.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.48 HOUR FORECAST AREA W OF A LINE FROM 43N66W TO 31N79W S WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.HIGH 43N42W 1039 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N76W 1032 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N62W 1035 MB.
.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED MAR 26.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU MAR 27.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI MAR 28.
.WARNINGS.

ATLC GALE WARNING
.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO 26N70W TO 27N71W TO 25N80W. N OF
29N E OF FRONT TO 61W S TO SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20
FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 74W NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 13 TO 20 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST N OF 29N. ELSEWHERE W OF
FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT N AND NE OF
BAHAMAS...EXCEPT 12 TO 17 FT E OF 79W. N OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND
COLD FRONT S TO SW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT...HIGHEST
N OF 29N.

12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N59W TO 25N65W
THEN
WEAKENING TO 22N77W. N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM
31N75W TO 27N73W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT
N OF 29N. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 27N W OF
FRONT TO BAHAMAS...AND N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 79W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW TO N SWELL...HIGHEST BETWEEN FRONT
AND 75W.

24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N53W TO 24N61W
THEN
DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 21N76W. N OF 29N WITHIN 150 NM E OF
FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 65W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT IN NW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N AND NE OF BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 78W AND A LINE FROM 21N71W TO 31N51W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT WEAKENING FROM 31N44W TO 24N57W
24N57W...THEN FRONTAL TROUGH TO 20N72W. WITHIN 240 NM NW OF
FRONT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL...HIGHEST NE PART. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM
31N70W TO 27N76W TO 21N76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
IN MIXED N TO NE SWELL...HIGHEST NE OF BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 KT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 12 FT FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 67W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC FROM 19N TO 26N E OF 41W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NE SWELL.

24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W
AND ALSO
FROM 20N TO 28N E OF 42W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W AND ALSO S
OF 22N BETWEEN 62W AND NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13
FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT. N OF 21N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST BETWEEN 86W AND 94W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. N OF 22N W OF 94W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 10 FT. S OF 25N E OF 86W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W SE TO S WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT...EXCEPT TO 8 FT FROM 22N TO 26N.
N OF 26N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Quote:
Hazardous marine condition(s):
Hurricane Force Wind Warning

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. ANZ089-270330- 1044 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLC COAST LATER TODAY...THEN PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT. DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SUN. $$ SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. ANZ094-270330- BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE HAGUE LINE SOUTH OF 1000 FM- 1044 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014 HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

ANZ094-270330-
BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE HAGUE LINE SOUTH OF 1000 FM-
1044 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING


TODAY
W OF 70W...NW WINDS 45 TO 60 KT...SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. E OF
70W...W TO NW WINDS 70 TO 90 KT...SEAS 20 TO 30 FT...BUILDING TO
26 TO 42 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TONIGHT
W OF 70W...NW WINDS 35 TO 45 KT...SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. E
OF 70W...W TO NW WINDS 55 TO 70 KT...BECOMING NW 35 TO 50 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 29 TO 44 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THU
W OF 70W...NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...BECOMING W 5 TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 11 TO 18 FT...SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF 70W...NW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...BECOMING W TO NW 15
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 17 TO 27 FT...SUBSIDING TO 13 TO
20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.

THU NIGHT
W TO SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. W OF 70W...SEAS 5 TO 9
FT. E OF 70W...SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

FRI
S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

SAT
S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

SUN
S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT.
As you can see, these Lows do move fast....and in just 24 - 36 hours, the weather is back to almost normal...



If you wish to see how the words above, translate to the weather charts, have a look here....























I hope this helps show how the Lows coming off the continent can be a really problem this time of year!!


Fair winds.

John
s/v Annie Laurie
__________________
ka4wja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 12:40   #56
Registered User
 
ka4wja's Avatar

Join Date: May 2007
Location: Florida
Boat: Catalina 470
Posts: 2,033
Re: First time offshore

Okay, I probably should've put all of this in one posting....but didn't have enough time...so here's the rest of the story...

If you look here you can see how much more benign conditions are in the lower latitudes of the SW N Alt...

Quote:
AMZ101-270315-
ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH-

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014


.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N65W SW TO 27N71W TO 25N80W
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 24N65W TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY THIS EVENING...AND TO THE FAR SE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. STRONG
HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE FRI AND
WEAKEN. LARGE SWELLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. ON
SAT AND EMERGE OVER THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$




SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



AMZ125-270315-
ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
TRENCH-
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014


THIS AFTERNOON
S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

TONIGHT
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 15 TO 20 KT LATE.
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

THU
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
LATE. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.

THU NIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

FRI
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL.

SAT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

SUN
E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL.
Quote:
AMZ101-270315-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014


.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N65W SW TO 27N71W TO 25N80W
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 24N65W TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY THIS EVENING...AND TO THE FAR SE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. STRONG
HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE FRI AND
WEAKEN. LARGE SWELLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. ON
SAT AND EMERGE OVER THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$




SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



AMZ121-270315-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014


THIS AFTERNOON
SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF FRONT.

TONIGHT
NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL S
OF 25N...AND 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 25N.

THU
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT S OF 25N...AND 10 TO
13 FT N OF 25N.

THU NIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT IN NW
SWELL.

FRI
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.

SAT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW
SWELL.

SUN
SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL.
Quote:
AMZ101-270315-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014


.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N65W SW TO 27N71W TO 25N80W
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 24N65W TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY THIS EVENING...AND TO THE FAR SE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. STRONG
HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE FRI AND
WEAKEN. LARGE SWELLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. ON
SAT AND EMERGE OVER THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$




SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



AMZ115-270315-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-

1113 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

GALE WARNING N OF 29N


THIS AFTERNOON
S OF 29N...W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...BECOMING
W TO NW 20 TO 30 KT LATE. N OF 29N...W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...DIMINISHING
TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT S OF 29N...AND 15 TO 20 FT
IN NW SWELL N OF 29N.

TONIGHT
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL S
OF 29N...AND 15 TO 20 FT N OF 29N.

THU
N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT LATE.
SEAS 12 TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL S OF 29N...AND 14 TO 19 FT IN NW
SWELL N OF 29N.

THU NIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT IN N
SWELL.

FRI
E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N SWELL.

SAT
E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

SUN
S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
Quote:
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED MAR 26 2014
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
SECURITE
ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED MAR 26.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU MAR 27.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI MAR 28.
.WARNINGS.

ATLC GALE WARNING
.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO 26N70W TO 27N71W TO 25N80W. N OF
29N E OF FRONT TO 61W S TO SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20
FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 74W NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 13 TO 20 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST N OF 29N. ELSEWHERE W OF
FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT N AND NE OF
BAHAMAS...EXCEPT 12 TO 17 FT E OF 79W. N OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND
COLD FRONT S TO SW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT...HIGHEST
N OF 29N.

12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N59W TO 25N65W
THEN
WEAKENING TO 22N77W. N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM
31N75W TO 27N73W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT
N OF 29N. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 27N W OF
FRONT TO BAHAMAS...AND N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 79W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW TO N SWELL...HIGHEST BETWEEN FRONT
AND 75W.

24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N53W TO 24N61W
THEN
DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 21N76W. N OF 29N WITHIN 150 NM E OF
FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 65W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT IN NW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N AND NE OF BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 78W AND A LINE FROM 21N71W TO 31N51W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT WEAKENING FROM 31N44W TO 24N57W
24N57W...THEN FRONTAL TROUGH TO 20N72W. WITHIN 240 NM NW OF
FRONT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL...HIGHEST NE PART. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM
31N70W TO 27N76W TO 21N76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
IN MIXED N TO NE SWELL...HIGHEST NE OF BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 KT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 12 FT FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 67W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC FROM 19N TO 26N E OF 41W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NE SWELL.

24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W
AND ALSO
FROM 20N TO 28N E OF 42W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W AND ALSO S
OF 22N BETWEEN 62W AND NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13
FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT. N OF 21N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST BETWEEN 86W AND 94W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. N OF 22N W OF 94W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 10 FT. S OF 25N E OF 86W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W SE TO S WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT...EXCEPT TO 8 FT FROM 22N TO 26N.
N OF 26N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



And, here are the weather charts, for the SW N Alt, Trop N Atl, Carb Sea, and Gulf of Mexico....




















I hope this helps clarify the differences in weather along this passage....


Fair winds...

John
s/v Annie Laurie
__________________
ka4wja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 13:14   #57
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Newport RI
Boat: Pearson 303
Posts: 19
Re: First time offshore

Thanks again John for this info. Let me ask you is UTC Eastern daylight savings time?
__________________
irishmike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 13:19   #58
Senior Cruiser
 
skipmac's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: 29 49.16 N 82 25.82 W
Boat: Pearson 422
Posts: 12,374
Re: First time offshore

Quote:
Originally Posted by irishmike View Post
Thanks again John for this info. Let me ask you is UTC Eastern daylight savings time?
UTC. Universal Coordinated Time (or I guess Universal Time Coordinated?) or what used to be GMT or Zulu time for the military guys.
__________________
The water is always bluer on the other side of the ocean.
skipmac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 13:24   #59
Senior Cruiser
 
skipmac's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: 29 49.16 N 82 25.82 W
Boat: Pearson 422
Posts: 12,374
Re: First time offshore

Quote:
Originally Posted by tartansail View Post
I read that NOAA chart as 70-85 knot winds near the center with seas up to 50 feet (remembering that is the average height of the tallest 1/3 of seas so many will be higher). That's hurricane conditions with air temps likely around freezing. For me, that's a lot closer to survival conditions than I have any interest in experiencing.
Agreed. The center would be reaching what I would consider a survival storm and max wave heights a lot higher than the average plus good conditions for a freak waver.

I was looking more at the southern side of the system and trying to be a bit optimistic.
__________________
The water is always bluer on the other side of the ocean.
skipmac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-03-2014, 15:15   #60
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Newport RI
Boat: Pearson 303
Posts: 19
Re: First time offshore

Skipmac, GMT would be in Greenwich England, same time zone as Ireland, which is 4 to 5 hours ahead (they have not sprung forward yet so its 4 right now) of us on the East Coast. Correct?
__________________

__________________
irishmike is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
offshore

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Long Time Lurker, First Time Poster kgreenlaw Meets & Greets 8 23-02-2014 13:16
Long Time Lurker, First Time Poster - hello to all jinbtown Meets & Greets 14 26-09-2013 22:32
Hello! Long time lurker, first time poster. Zomgie Meets & Greets 6 01-08-2013 00:30
Long-Time Listener, First-Time Caller irvus Meets & Greets 10 15-07-2011 20:37
First time poster, long time sailer. Richkd Meets & Greets 16 31-08-2008 07:18



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 22:19.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.