Chesapeake Folks - Worried About Earl ?

[Mimsy]

Cindy,

Aren't you due really soon? If so, I'd get a plan together for taking your little family inland just in case.

I've lived all my life in the Hurricane belt and have been through several- Alicia, TS Allison, Rita, Ike and had family in NOLA during Katrina and on Galveston Bay during Carla. We always prepare when there is any possibility of a hit in the 72 hour window. These storms are just too unpredicatable. We have never regretted being prepared and then having the storm miss us.

I'd book a hotel room as close as possible to the hospital or birth center you are planning on delivering. I'd also plan on extending my stay by another few days in case of power outages, etc. You will have your hands full enough with your son and the new baby, no need to deal with storm debris, lack of power (most hotels have generators) etc.

Let SchoonerDog and friends secure the boat, you take care of you!

I'd

[Pblais]

I'm watching and waiting.

For those in the area if you are not actively preparing it might be just the time to prepare on paper what you would do. It might not be this one but we are in the period where the most nasty storms brew up this way. If you choose to haul it's something that must be arranged well before a storm has been predicted to be a threat. By the time you hear about it you will be too far in the back of the line.

Making a checklist of things just can't hurt if you have to act fast it is easy to forget. For most storms you'll want to pull all the canvas off the boat mostly to save it and partly to reduce windage. In high winds it matters a lot. It takes me a good long time to do that so if you never have done it assume a good days work and it includes sails and cockpit canvas both.

We have never regretted being prepared and then having the storm miss us.

I've dodged the bullet more than not but never regretted being prepared. It takes as much time to undo it all as it does to prepare it, but it really isn't so bad if you don't get the storm. The disaster cleanup even if well prepared would be far worse.

[sabray]

HURRICANE EARL REMAINS THE CONCERN FOR COASTAL AREAS THRU END THE OF
from NWS . THE WORK WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE STORM /USING THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK/ WOULD LIMIT THEM TO THE COASTAL AREAS. SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC INLET /CLOSEST TO THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM/ ATTM HAVE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE PASSAGE.
SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY ON THE WATERS...FROM POST-FRONTAL
NWLY WINDS THAT WILL LAST OVER MUCH OF THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE SAT
good sailing could be in the works. the bow out is "using the current forecast".
From NWS
HURRICANE EARL REMAINS THE CONCERN FOR COASTAL AREAS THRU END THE OF
THE WORK WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE STORM /USING THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK/ WOULD LIMIT THEM TO THE COASTAL AREAS. SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC INLET /CLOSEST TO THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM/ ATTM HAVE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE PASSAGE.
SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY ON THE WATERS...FROM POST-FRONTAL
NWLY WINDS THAT WILL LAST OVER MUCH OF THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE SAT
Many boats here West river are showing there sun covers,dinghys on davits roller furlers with clews hanginging free. the dinghy storage will go air borne in a 60knot gust. No one here seems to concerned. Im dropping my bimini snugging the rollers with extra wraps. clearing the decks securing the solar panels. moving the dinghy. feeling lonely. no one else seems worried. Not worried really myself but prudent.

[Auspicious]

I'm with Chuck on this. I just don't see it for the Chesapeake. I think OBX will see some effects and maybe New England, but we'll get a pass this time.

The nice thing about NWS is that they show all the raw data and then give their conclusions. That gives us all the chance to make our own judgments and be responsible for ourselves.

I filled up with fuel and water, changed the oil in everything close to due, and expect yet another non-event.

[sabray]

Im inclined to agree. But what I see is a cat 4 hurricane that has tracked more west then anticipated a smudge. A difference of 50 to 100 miles could be dramatic. THe operational window for the chesapeake is now plus 24 hours. Im seeing sails left in ways I wouldn't leave mine on a normal week means folks arent worrying. Not much activity. Its a good community here so I imagine more activity here tomorrow. I don't like getting caught with my pants down. So Im doing a little house keeping now If things twist up a bit Ill be back. I think there will be good sailing on Saturday and Sunday though. seems a little complacent here.

[Mark Zarley]

Here at town Point marina, we are filling up our water tanks ( in case of a power outage, we are at the end of the line and we are the last to get our power restored). Usually we would head for our favorite hurricane hole, just to get away from the dock side issues. Unfortunatly it will be just another day sanding , painting or varnishing. If the humidty rises enough we may take a day off. Can anyone say hurricane party?

[SeaKing]

Originally Posted by Waterwayguy

All of the forecasts here in the Baltimore Annapolis area are adamant that the Baltimore area will see no affects from Earl. The NWS forecasts partly sunny and low 80s for Friday and Saturday. The Upper Chesapeake Bay Marine forecast for Friday and Saturday is,
FRI
N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

FRI NIGHT
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

SAT
W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.

SAT NIGHT
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.

So it looks like Saturday will be a good day to go sailing. Chuck

That is exactly what I told my wife, Saturday should be the best day to go sailing.

[Pblais]

That is exactly what I told my wife, Saturday should be the best day to go sailing.

Usually is. We had the best sail the day after Ernesto. Almost the same deal. Friday before Labor Day. But it was a perfect weekend after. You just have to be tied down and buttoned up Friday so you can undo it all on Staurday. Once she blows through it dominates the weather for a few days.

I've also been burned on those deals too. Laster in the season isn't sdo easy. Caught a great sail to the eastern shore (27nm) only to be pinned down for three days with 25 knots gusting to 35 in the wrong direction with lots of rain most of the time. You really only have one good day to bank on.

[sabray]

Thats what Im thinking we'll sail out friday evening or saturday early. In the meantime a cat4 hurricane needs to get pushed East by a low in the Ohio or great lakes region. Id love to go north to Worton creek but may go the other way and get up into the St Marys river. Until then My bimini is down the jibs have extra wraps and later tomorrow I may decide to come back to do more well see.

[Pblais]

St Mary's is nice. We were there back in June. Then across to the Wicomico.

[sabray]

Paul your going off topic. The crick above St george's cant recall the name we love to anchor off the marina. Nicest folk and the kids love the pool. If it weren't for the nettles. Urbana could be a close tie though I love that place. Turn earl turn

[schoonerdog]

yep, I am due in about 2 weeks... in other words any time -- tick tock.

we doubled up lines and cleared the decks, mainsail was off anyhow for repairs. we're expecting northerlies and low water, and we're in a very protected slip in already shallow water (since we only draw 3 feet). So we're expecting to end up on our keels which is just fine.

waiting and watching like everyone else!
(Cindy - schoonerdog's wife)

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by Pblais

I'm watching and waiting.

For those in the area if you are not actively preparing it might be just the time to prepare on paper what you would do. It might not be this one but we are in the period where the most nasty storms brew up this way. If you choose to haul it's something that must be arranged well before a storm has been predicted to be a threat. By the time you hear about it you will be too far in the back of the line.

Making a checklist of things just can't hurt if you have to act fast it is easy to forget. For most storms you'll want to pull all the canvas off the boat mostly to save it and partly to reduce windage. In high winds it matters a lot. It takes me a good long time to do that so if you never have done it assume a good days work and it includes sails and cockpit canvas both.



I've dodged the bullet more than not but never regretted being prepared. It takes as much time to undo it all as it does to prepare it, but it really isn't so bad if you don't get the storm. The disaster cleanup even if well prepared would be far worse.

Agreed. We have a good opportunity to make a dry run.

[sandy daugherty]

I lost Tango Too in Isabel. The technical data available up till the day before was reasonably benign, with a predicted surge of 3 feet. We got 9.5 feet on Glebe Bay in the South River, all funnel effect. Tango two settled on top of two pilings and got hammered until they broke through the stout West system hull next to the keel. After the crest she settled, impaled on the pilings. Wave action tore a 5 X 8 foot panel out of the side of the boat. A catamaran, she remained afloat. A write off.