Bermuda Passage in Hurricane Season

[3reefs]

Hi, we're hoping to sail to Bermuda and back from New York this June/July. Given hurricane season, does anyone think this is not sound?

We have a Valiant 40. We'd be leaving about June 20, budgeting say a 6 day passage. Staying in Bermuda a week or 10 days, then heading back. With delays at sea or on land, I could foresee the return trip as late as July 7 to 15.

That would put us firmly in official hurricane season, even if they appear to be rare up there until quite a bit later. The Newport-Bermuda race leaves on June 15, so they must think it's a safe enough time. Does a week or so make much difference? We'd be leaving and returning a good week after the race schedule.

Ultimately the main question must be whether the seven-day forecasts tracking storms to the south are reliable enough?

Related question for those who have done this passage, what are the sites you recommend for studying the gulf stream position?

thanks very much in advance. Not that the boat is anywhere near being ready to launch, but it's fun at least to start thinking of things other than maintenance!

[Hud3]

You should be fine that time of year. Just keep your eye on the tropical long range forecasts. They're good enough to give you plenty of warning.

Tropical storms can track through that area of the Atlantic in June or July, but they're relatively rare. We made the trip, leaving Hampton Roads in mid-June and returning July4th. The passages both ways were extremely rough, but due to stalled frontal systems, not tropical storms.

Some Gulf Stream links...

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM...currents.shtml

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/Gul..._compare.shtml

http://www.bermudarace.com/DefaultPe...2/Default.aspx

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewe...rundate=latest

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/gfs.html

[denverd0n]

How married are you to your schedule? The answer should be, not at all. Otherwise you're asking for trouble.

[Blue Stocking]

Some years ago we had a hurricane on June 1st, but something to worry about that early is very, very rare. Middle August on, I would be concerned.

[3reefs]

thanks for the replies everyone. We are not that married to the schedule, at least not to the day. If you set aside 12 days for two passages and a week stay in Bermuda at minimum that makes 19 days. We have that plus about 10 more days of wiggle room. The real question is how unstable the weather is once you're into first half of July and whether you can get a 'surprise' tropical storm within a few days. Seems from what I gather here and elsewhere that the risks are pretty reasonable. Otherwise, I suppose the annual races wouldn't start in mid-June. cheers

[F15EWSO]

I'd stick to your dates and be prepared to "knock it off" if a storm or disturbance starts to appear. Yes you may lose some money or have to change your plans but such is life (better than death). I booked two summer cruises to the BVI, one in August, one in July and knew the risks, both worked out. Point is there is a hurricane season, respect it, plan for it and see what happens.