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Old 11-04-2008, 12:33   #16
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I think the best advice is just "expect the worst, hope for the best."
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Old 11-04-2008, 12:54   #17
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Originally Posted by Artful Dodger View Post
If the chaps didn't provide the information or possible forcast of the season ahead, what would be our comments if without early warning a storm was to wipe out the eastern seaboard. I wonder would there be crys of what could have we done to be better prepared. I would rather be informed, right or wrong so I might have a chance to make a decision about my safety.
That fact is that even with this information the ability to predict landfall of a storm anywhere is near impossible until it actually hits land. We as relatively intelligent humans know that hurricanes develop at certain times of the year in certain areas. The ability to determine that a storm is out there and the general track, even questionable, is about all we can ask for. The rest is just a variation of the WAG forecast method now in use. WAG = Wild Ass Guess
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Old 11-04-2008, 14:14   #18
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My feeling about pre-season hurricane forecasts is, "Who cares?"

You know there will be hurricanes, so you'd better be prepared for the possibility that one of them will come close to your location. Once you're prepared, what difference does it make if the forecast is for a few more odd storms in the entire North Atlantic Basin?

The only thing I care about is the realtime information available on the Internet to see potential tropical storms as they begin to develop and move westward. During the season, I probably look at a dozen sources every morning to see what's brewing out there.

Pre-season forecasts are of no use whatsoever, even if they were accurate.
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Old 11-04-2008, 14:20   #19
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I think that has been pretty much been my point.
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Old 09-08-2008, 04:45   #20
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UPDATE:

In the August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center increased the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season and raised the total number of named storms and hurricanes that may form.

NOAA now projects an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season — up from 65 percent in May. The updated outlook includes a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms, of which seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

These ranges encompass the entire season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the five named storms* that have formed thus far.

* Tropical Storm Arthur, Hurricane Bertha, Tropical Storm Cristobal, Hurricane Dolly,
Dolly, and Tropical Storm Edouard.

Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update
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Old 09-08-2008, 05:09   #21
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I agree with Strong Start Increases NOAA’s Confidence for Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

p.s. I am leaving in 2 weeks for a 3 week sail around the BVI/USVI and Antigua and hope that all these boffins are wrong.
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Old 09-08-2008, 07:06   #22
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Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide is a pretty good site.

(I work for one of the sponsors)
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Old 09-08-2008, 07:43   #23
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I refuse to ad to the hurricane hype. They've been coming long before we got here and will be coming long after we're gone. Though as sailors, hurricanes are something to be aware of, the only people I ever see benifiting from these new "the sky is falling" dire forecasts are Home Depot, the insurance companies, and Chicken Little.
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Old 09-08-2008, 07:53   #24
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This is a quote by Gord from another thread and I think it would fit here real nice:

There are also anecdotes claiming that the checque is in the mail, and describing honest politicians, alien abduction, and Bigfoot (sasquatch) encounters.
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Old 09-08-2008, 13:33   #25
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This is a quote by Gord from another thread and I think it would fit here real nice:
There are also anecdotes claiming that the checque is in the mail, and describing honest politicians, alien abduction, and Bigfoot (sasquatch) encounters.
Hoist on my own petar (petard)!

By all means, don’t believe the so-called experts - those pedantic academics, who insist on such foolishness as: right angles are separated by 90 degrees, and other such “conventional” wisdoms.

Perhaps not "exact", these remain among the best predictions available.

I predict that over 90% of the present CruisersForum membership will have died by the year 2099.
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