2013 hurricane season forecast

[atoll]

"A wild season is on the way, and the "major hit drought" on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadal signal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s."

link
2013 Hurricane Season Forecast


weather club anybody?

[boatman61]

Should have some interesting stories from the 'Pond Life' travelling via Bermuda to Europe in a few weeks then...

[atoll]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Should have some interesting stories from the 'Pond Life' travelling via Bermuda to Europe in a few weeks then...

yup looks like the azores high is a thing of the past!

currently should be called the azores low,and the greenland low the greenland high!

[boatman61]

Been cold and exceedingly wet here.. they've closed most of the Douro to boats because the levels are dangerously high and the lowlands are giant paddling pools..
Wondering if the 'Tilt' has happened already and 'They' are not telling us...

[RedHerring]

Is there any reason to take this forecast seriously?

Not saying there isn't, but the history of long range forecasting is full of quack science and bona fide researchers mistaking accidental correlations in the historic sample for the real deal.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Been cold and exceedingly wet here.. they've closed most of the Douro to boats because the levels are dangerously high and the lowlands are giant paddling pools..
Wondering if the 'Tilt' has happened already and 'They' are not telling us...

nw scotland and west coast islands are having wild fire's from drought wtf is going on there

[atoll]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

Is there any reason to take this forecast seriously?

Not saying there isn't, but the history of long range forecasting is full of quack science and bona fide researchers mistaking accidental correlations in the historic sample for the real deal.

this prediction was in march,so hardly long range

[mbianka]

Well I've got my new 500 lb mooring ready to go:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: THAT WAS QUICK

As well as some new knowledge after surviving Hunrricane Sandy:
http://biankablog.blogspot.com/2012/...ane-sandy.html
Along with some new plans of action if another storm approaches.

[Hudson Force]

I call the forecast "long range" as it's for the season ahead that has yet to begin. I have little interest in these overall forecasts because it's the single storm that is heading for me that holds my attention. I can be the target for the only storm in a light season or be widely missed by all in a record season of hurricanes.

[RedHerring]

Per my (outdated by more than a decade and limited) understanding of how equations work in atmospheric physics, any statement about future weather that looks forward longer than ~4 days is long range, and highly inaccurate. For several months in advance, things like "July will be about as warm as it was for the last 100 years" is about as much as they can predict with any decent accuracy. Or so I discovered the last time I looked into the actual physics behind meteorology. Had anything changed since?

[atoll]

Originally Posted by CaptForce

I call the forecast "long range" as it's for the season ahead that has yet to begin. I have little interest in these overall forecasts because it's the single storm that is heading for me that holds my attention. I can be the target for the only storm in a light season or be widely missed by all in a record season of hurricanes.

quite right,living in hurricane ally as you do
,this is more of a guide for people trying to plan where to leave their boats in the carib,or those considering crossing to europe,and the premium adjustements that insurance companies will levie using the data.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

Per my (outdated by more than a decade and limited) understanding of how equations work in atmospheric physics, any statement about future weather that looks forward longer than ~4 days is long range, and highly inaccurate. For several months in advance, things like "July will be about as warm as it was for the last 100 years" is about as much as they can predict with any decent accuracy. Or so I discovered the last time I looked into the actual physics behind meteorology. Had anything changed since?

it is a proven fact that el nino create's abnormal weather,why should this be any different?

note should be taken by the abnormally cold temprature of the north atlantic leading to severe summer storms in the north atlantic.

and the abnormmaly large amount of warm atlantic south of 20 north that will satistically generate more than average hurricane activity.

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

Is there any reason to take this forecast seriously?

Not saying there isn't, but the history of long range forecasting is full of quack science and bona fide researchers mistaking accidental correlations in the historic sample for the real deal.

This is a macro forecast of increased probability and is based on historical data. There is plenty of precedent of these sorts of forecasts having some general accuracy. It's worth paying attention to as an indication of potential future storm activity, particularly up the coast to the northeast and it's valuable information for those with boats in this area in terms of planning for the season. Does it mean that we're going to get hit with multiple hurricanes here on the Chesapeake? Maybe, maybe not. But knowing that there is increased probability is worth paying attention to.

[Miniyot]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

Per my (outdated by more than a decade and limited) understanding of how equations work in atmospheric physics, any statement about future weather that looks forward longer than ~4 days is long range, and highly inaccurate. For several months in advance, things like "July will be about as warm as it was for the last 100 years" is about as much as they can predict with any decent accuracy. Or so I discovered the last time I looked into the actual physics behind meteorology. Had anything changed since?

Hurricane season forecasting is not the same as a regular weather forecast, when it is only used in the way this forecast is done. There are other variables used that affect other areas of the world that will ultimately result in a higher than average or lower than average amount of hurricanes. It is no different than a meteorologist in Oregon giving a long range forecast for fog to happen. He doesn't say when and he doesn't say where it will make landfall.

[Group9]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

Is there any reason to take this forecast seriously?

Not saying there isn't, but the history of long range forecasting is full of quack science and bona fide researchers mistaking accidental correlations in the historic sample for the real deal.

I was thinking the same thing.

I have lived on the gulf coast, or florida east coast, most of my adult life, and we always laugh at these predictions.

They are wrong more often than they are right from my personal memory and experience. And, they never predict something like Katrina, or Andrew. One of those is worse than fifteen Cat 1's.