In or out of the EU, how will it effect the boating community.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by K_V_B

The German people are not winning. I see it every day I go to Germany, like today. Standards of living are slipping. Indeed, they pay with one hand and then get orders for all kinds of stuff in return. That is another way of saying that the rest of Europe gets trains, machines and industrial products for free, products that German workers who see their standard of living drop are producing.
How long do you think they will take that?
..

I don't see that in Germany and I go there every year. This is the evolution of GDP per capita and even with the crisis it id growing steadily on the last years:

The truth s that all Europe had dominated for centuries a large part of the world resources and that has been decreasing on the last decades. The result of that will be obviously a decreasing on the European global richness.

Many countries, including France, Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, UK, Ireland and Greece have experienced difficulties in adapting to the new reality. Germany has done remarkably well in what regards that.

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by Polux

I don't see that in Germany and I go there every year.

Maybe you need to go more than once a year then.

I am in Germany at least once a month. I have a lot of German friends. I read the German press. Frustration with the EU is on the rise.

Germany is running a huge trade surplus. That is often touted as a good thing, but really it isn't. It means that the Germans don't get to consume as much as they produce.
It for example means that Germany is giving nice shiny trains to Spain in exchange for IUO's that will soon be worthless, while the German train system is falling appart.

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by K_V_B

Germany is running a huge trade surplus. That is often touted as a good thing, but really it isn't. It means that the Germans don't get to consume as much as they produce.

I don't see how the surplus is anything but good. A lot of the surplus will be for goods exported to outside of the Euro zone and this is helped greatly by Germany being part of the Eurozone with the poorer countries holding down the value of the Euro making German goods cheaper than if they were still using the Deutschmark.

What's going to hurt Germany financially and socially is the massive misjudgement Merkel has made over the past year or two in domestic policies.

[valhalla360]

In the short term, Germany is profiting wildly by the trade imbalance and the PIIGS holding down the Euro has only added to that. The fact they have been stockpiling cash while the PIIGS are digging deep debt holes is only good for Germans.


The concern is it's not a good long term solution. If the EU breaks up, the German economy will be decimated. The new Euro (or Mark) will skyrocket in value easily 20-30% maybe much more. Suddenly the export economy collapses in catastrophic fashion as German products are outrageously expensive. The PIIGS and other debtors outside Germany are likely to tell them they will pay their debt with their new local currency, so the German savings may be undercut as the PIIGS go thru major inflation.


Long term the PIIGS are caught in a never ending cycle that the Germans (and a couple other countries) have pushed. That's not to say the PIIGS didn't bring a lot of it on themselves but the Germans knew exactly what was happening and not only did they not fight it when the problem was small they intentionally profited from those mistakes. They didn't do anything for the last 15-20yrs and are only concerned now that it looks like the short term benefits might be coming to an end.


I'm sure a lot of Germans are concerned about the long term outcome situation. There will be no cheap and easy way out. Either the EU comes closer together and the rich countries help the poor countries at significant cost (and if they are smart implement systems to stop it happening in the future) or the whole thing blows up and they still have to endure major pain as the whole Euro zone undergoes massive financial upheaval. It's just a question of how long they can keep kicking the can down the road.

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by hoppy

I don't see how the surplus is anything but good.

It all depends on what you get in return.

Compare it with your personal situation. You earn X per month, but spend (import) Y per month with Y < X. You thus save X-Y. That is good.
Until your savings suddenly evaporate, in which case you've worked for free part of your time...

That is the EU: Germany lends money to Greece. Greece uses that money to build a railway, with equipment bought in Germany. Then Germany lends money to Greece again so that Greece can now demolish that railway again (yes, this really happened!).
Then Greece decides they are not going to pay the loans back. The IOU's Germany collected in exchange for its exports are now worthless.
In the end German workers have provided labor, but neither Germany, nor Greece actually have ended up any better because of it.

I see it every time I go to Germany. You'd expect the EU to make Italy more like Germany, but the opposite is happening. In Germany prices are half what they are in Switzerland for most things. Such a price difference is unnatural for economies that are actually quite similar, and it wasn't like that at all before the introduction of the EURO.

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

In the short term, Germany is profiting wildly by the trade imbalance and the PIIGS holding down the Euro has only added to that. The fact they have been stockpiling cash while the PIIGS are digging deep debt holes is only good for Germans.

No, that is the issue here. The Germans have not been stockpiling cash. They have been stockpiling promises that will probably end up worthless.

The concern is it's not a good long term solution. If the EU breaks up, the German economy will be decimated. The new Euro (or Mark) will skyrocket in value easily 20-30% maybe much more.

The Swiss Franc went up 20% in a single day last year... It didn't decimate the economy. It did make life better for the Swiss though.

The purpose of life is not to produce, but to consume :-). Switzerland had a trade surplus of 17%. That basically is another way of saying that the Swiss weren't enjoying life enough. With the Franc up we are still having a trade surplus. But we are also enjoying lower prices for imported goods.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by K_V_B

No, that is the issue here. The Germans have not been stockpiling cash. They have been stockpiling promises that will probably end up worthless.



The Swiss Franc went up 20% in a single day last year... It didn't decimate the economy. It did make life better for the Swiss though.

The purpose of life is not to produce, but to consume :-). Switzerland had a trade surplus of 17%. That basically is another way of saying that the Swiss weren't enjoying life enough. With the Franc up we are still having a trade surplus. But we are also enjoying lower prices for imported goods.

You are saying the same thing in a different way. Right now, on the books they have a lot of wealth. As long as they keep kicking the can down the road...they have a lot of wealth (ie: the short term situation). When the system collapses, all those IOUs become scrap paper but there is more to it as it compounds with multiple issues all bad for the German economy all working against them (ie: the long term situation).

Switzerland is playing on the edges. They are a small player and a lot of their transactions are denominated in Euro anyway. The 17% jump was because they were artificially holding the Franc down and finally eased up. It was expected and already priced in. More importantly, it really had only a small impact on the overall economy of Europe. Probably a bigger issue, is their major trade partners are still limping along (ie: EU countries).

If the EU breaks up, not only will you see the new Euro jump by a large margin, other thing happen. The local currencies in the PIIGS will drop like a rock (that 20-30% change should easily become 50-100% shift maybe more). So not only can the PIIGS no longer afford German goods, PIIGS produced goods start to steal market share from Germany in other countries. All those IOUs stop getting paid (or get paid in the new local currency), this drives German companies quickly into bankruptcy while PIIGS companies are expanding and hiring.

Of course if the German economy nose dives, you may see wild fluctuations the value of the Euro. After an initial jump, it may go thru an even large drop and it may repeat this for a while before settling in.

This isn't to say Germany won't eventually recover but it will be multiple years and a lot of pain. It will also be multiple years and a lot of pain for the PIIGS as their reduced value currency cuts into their ability to buy stuff but as things settle the PIIGS new currency is likely to increase in value in value relatively quickly bringing back a decent portion of their buying power. German buying power is likely to be hurt for a longer period.

This all assumes a peaceful democratic transition. If things get ugly, all bets are off.

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

You are saying the same thing in a different way. Right now, on the books they have a lot of wealth. As long as they keep kicking the can down the road..

But as long as you keep kicking the can down the road you can't enjoy its contents. But you can't anyway, because it's empty. Kicking the can down the road because it is empty, hoping that it somehow magically will become non empty is crazy.

What I am basically saying is that Germany could be a lot better of. It isn't, and ordinary Germans are starting to feel it. And that is a bit troubling.
Mind you. It won't lead to war. Europe doesn't have enough young men for that...

[Polux]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

In the short term, Germany is profiting wildly by the trade imbalance and the PIIGS holding down the Euro has only added to that. The fact they have been stockpiling cash while the PIIGS are digging deep debt holes is only good for Germans.
...
Long term the PIIGS are caught in a never ending cycle that the Germans (and a couple other countries) have pushed. That's not to say the PIIGS didn't bring a lot of it on themselves but the Germans knew exactly what was happening and not only did they not fight it when the problem was small they intentionally profited from those mistakes. They didn't do anything for the last 15-20yrs and are only concerned now that it looks like the short term benefits might be coming to an end.
..

Data does not support your idea that PIIGS are digging depth holes. All Southern European countries, with a help of EU (and Merkel) are managing to put their economies in balance and have seen their GDP per capita increasing on the last years and have been decreasing their deficit in a controllable way, most of them having it now on 3% or close to it. Even Greece, that is the slower one, have been showing improvements on the last years.

The Process as been slow but steady in what regards economy recover.

[valhalla360]

So what you are saying is the citizens of the PIIGS should be happy they took a 30% pay cut and now it's only a 27% pay cut.

Sorry but unemployment is still high and Per Capita GDP is still way down...even worse if you account for inflation and there really is no sign of them climbing out.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

So what you are saying is the citizens of the PIIGS should be happy they took a 30% pay cut and now it's only a 27% pay cut.

Sorry but unemployment is still high and Per Capita GDP is still way down...even worse if you account for inflation and there really is no sign of them climbing out.

No, they, contrary to what you said, are increasing their GDP per capita and solving their problems in a positive and steady way. They passed from a situation of bankruptcy to a steady, even if slow growth.

Regarding employment it has bettered even on a more significant way than economic growth:

Portugal:


Ireland:

[leftbrainstuff]

The EU is a beauracratic, inefficient and failed social experiment.

However while in this state they aren't at war with each other.

While I can see how the UK would be better off exiting the EU political union the economic union has benefits.

The current refugee mess is an utter clusterf#@k. During the cold war this would have been resolved as a civil war with less suffering and less impact on the EU.

Displacing millions because governments and nations don't have the balls to do the difficult things we expect governments to do is not good for anyone.

Sent from my SM-N900T using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[leftbrainstuff]

Originally Posted by leftbrainstuff

The EU is a beauracratic, inefficient and failed social experiment.

However while in this state they aren't at war with each other.

While I can see how the UK would be better off exiting the EU political union the economic union has benefits.

The current refugee mess is an utter clusterf#@k. During the cold war this would have been resolved as a civil war with less suffering and less impact on the EU.

Displacing millions because governments and nations don't have the balls to do the difficult things we expect governments to do is not good for anyone.

Sent from my SM-N900T using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

Sent from my SM-N900T using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[Polux]

Originally Posted by leftbrainstuff

,,,

Displacing millions because governments and nations don't have the balls to do the difficult things we expect governments to do is not good for anyone.

...

And the thing that should be done (if they had balls) would be?

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by Polux

And the thing that should be done (if they had balls) would be?

The civil war in Syria needs to be ended and ISIS crushed. Clearly the opposition groups that the EU & US are not capable to achieving that goal. The only person with the right idea is Putin. It's time for the west to accept that if they want to restore peace to Syria, then they have to get behind Assad. ISIS thrives in chaos and until there is a united force against them, they will never be defeated.

The US & EU have been clueless morons over the whole "Arab spring" thing. Each time they back the opposition, they back the leaders into a corner when they start shouting "try him for crimes against humanity" and then they wonder why the leaders fight back any and every possible way. Then if they are defeated, the country is destroyed, the opposition is fractured and then we get a civil war.

Time and time again, history has shown that if there is not a quick overthrow, then there is chaos. The US & EU just can't seem to see this

If the US & EU had learnt from world history, then once they could see that there will not be a quick transition, they should have stepped in and arranged for Asylum for Gaddafi & Assad. Let them keep some of the substantial wealth they took from their countries to live off and give immunity from their crimes.

Their countries and the world would be a better and safer place if this happened.