The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years

[puffcard]

Looks like it could be another devastating year for hurricanes. It seems like they're saying that every other year. Hoping they're wrong, everybody needs a break after last year.

https://721news.com/top-story/2018-hurricane-prediction-strongest-cycle-70-years/

[SSgtPitt]

And for only $97.97 you can purchase the Basic forecast for yourself. Of course the packages go up from there, $299 with webinar.

[boatman61]

LMAO..

[J Clark H356]

Yeah and by now where I used to vacation in Florida was supposed to be under water, the Arctic Ocean ice melted and I just heard this morning an Asteroid is heading straight for us and will get her in 2035! With all these expert forecasts, I think I’m going to go put my boat on the market.

[jimbunyard]

Another 'scientist-for-hire'.

If


"The preseason zone predictions are so accurate – updates to the forecasts are not required during the hurricane season." 721News


why don't the worlds' meteorological services just disband and buy their information directly from Global Weather Oscillations? (that's a rhetorical question, in case anyone out there has conspiratorial tendencies)

With a fairly cursory search (25 minutes), I could find no what-I would-call-credible sources that support the claims for accuracy made by GWO themselves.


Here is the GWO 2018 forecast, synopsized by NBC2 (Ft. Myers, I believe).

"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."


Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...

[grantmc]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Another 'scientist-for-hire'.
Here is the GWO 2018 forecast, synopsized by NBC2 (Ft. Myers, I believe).

"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."


Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...

I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

[Bean Counter]

Probably if you took the average for the last 100 years it might come in somewhere close to the forecast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlant...nes_per_season

[RaymondR]

This years cyclone (hurricane) season in Australia has bought about four during the last month or so, all of them along the northern coast, but none earlier in the season.

[CaptTom]

Professor David Dilley, states that the “Climate Pulse Technology Model” is based on natural rhythm cycles that control hurricane landfall cycles and the position of the Bermuda High Pressure Center.

Oh, yeah. The Rhythm Method. That's reliable.

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by grantmc

I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Quiqui (nickname for Enrique)
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Ulrich
Valerie
William
Xavierr
Ylla
Zenobia .... but it was a stretch!

Ann

[StuM]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Ann

grantmc's list was complete.

They only use 21 letters. And the lists rotate every 6 years. Here are the current lists with an explanation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

[Snore]

I love threads like this.

First here is my 100% accurate prediction... .... If YOU or your boat get his by a hurricane- you will consider it a bad season. Is some other poor *>%# gets hit instead of you- it is a good season.

Everything else is bologna.


Regarding letters-after the expected names are used they go to the Greek alphabet.

[jackdale]

David Dilley of GWO also predicted a cooling cycle starting in 2008.

ICECAP

[Jim Cate]

With no reference to this forecast, I'm always amused when folks say things like hurricane f/c worst in 70 years... global warming is responsible, etc. Wonder what caused that even worse season 70 years ago, somewhat before GW was seriously considered?

But hurricane/cyclone f/c have been notoriously bad in the past... even predicting the behavior of one after formation is kinda sketchy. They're fractious beasts. BTW, yesterday we had three of them active in Aussie waters... worst in many years, etc.

Jim

[Dave_S]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Another 'scientist-for-hire'.

"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."


Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...

Mr Dilley isn't a Ground Hog is he? I saw a documentary on him with Bill Murray once.