Hurricane Lane

[wholybee]

I’m currently in a marina in Honolulu. Planning a September departure, crew is/was planning to arrive next week to start prep.

Not encouraged looking at Lane. The marina is run down, and many boats there more so. Not convinced it’s safe no matter what I do if a storm hits it. Part of me thinks I should quickly provision and singlehand NorthEast and get out of its way. Not sure I’m prepared for that, but could if it’s the last resort.

How long would it be safe to stay here waiting to see what Lane does?

[AB808]

It’s a time distance calculation. You can move at 5 - 6 kts? The storms are moving at 13 kts or better. The big wind and wave affects will be 50-60 miles and greater.
Go earlier than later, If you have a sound boat that is ready for sea you can move east out of the path. You need confidence in the forecast that you are not going to make it worse and move toward the track. I would not worry over a lot of provisions the other islands have stores,
Agree a lot of damage will result from the poor maintenance of the docks.

Otherwise, review your policy and coverage and get off the boat.

[wholybee]

The forecast is has a low confidence. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages...d.201808210310

It could hit any or all of the islands, or none of them. My thought is sail more north than east. Earliest I could leave would probably be Wednesday. Tomorrow if I really hustle.

Another idea is to Anchor off north shore, in the Lee of the island.

I’m insured, but couldn’t replace the 2 years and thousands of dollars I’ve spent prepping to cruise.

[masonc]

Can you haul? The best place in a hurricane is on land.

[wholybee]

The 11pm HST forecast has better consensus, and moves the projected track closer to Oahu, and the projection cone nearly covers all of Hawaii. Projected that Lanes closest approach to Oahu is Friday~ 8pm. Then it is projected to weaken and turn West again.

My thinking right now is that conservatively I can sail 140nm/day. I had several 170nm days on the way here. So as long as I leave before about 8pm Wednesday I should be able to be nearly 300 nm north if it hits Oahu. Then it should turn west and head away from me.

So for now, I’m going to keep watching, and if things don’t get better plan on leaving Wednesday morning.

Just wish I had crew. They are/were due the 26th.

[zeehag]

lane has been predicted to affect hawaii for more than 4 days. now you worry?
sorry but as a watcher of canes i saw hawaii in the target area for a week. seems that, as this is cane season, prep is a given. we had prepped well for patricia even tho we were not in the cone.. guess again. we got the secondary landfall of an intensifying cat 5.
sailing out now is a lil late. you will not gain enough way to keep out of danger, as folks trying to escape irma found in gom. best to you.
good luck. keep us updated with your misadventure in caneville.

[masonc]

The hurricane has reached Cat5 status. At this point, take your valuables off and stow them, secure the boat as best you can, and find a safe place to weather the storm. I've been in ten major hurricanes on small islands, you don't want to be on a boat.

[Steadman Uhlich]

Posted by ABC News (4 hours ago): “We're watching the satellite as Hurricane Lane, a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts of up to 185 mph, churns in the Pacific; hurricane conditions possible for parts of Hawaii islands later this week.

Short video clip showing hurricane satellite graphic:

https://abcn.ws/2Buaunu

[Bleemus]

Forecast track

[wholybee]

Well at this point I think I’m getting a hotel room. Wish I had crew, would have days ago.

Anyway, at least I can, in addition to securing the boat and removing canvas etc, remove expensive gear and store it in the hotel. And my insurance is current, though that isn’t a prosess I look forward too.

[hellosailor]

I wouldn't want to be sitting offshore in a Cat4, alone, possibly for several days. And then guess if there's a marina to come back to, or do you have to solo to...where?

Sometimes there are no good choices.

A trip for extra fenders, lines, chafing gear, or even a gasoline operated trash pump to clear water from the boat, might be the only thing worth doing.

[Gudgeon]

Yep a little late to try to leave to the north east now. What harbor are you in? We have been lucky in Hawaii with out getting direct hits by any major hurricanes. Not so sure we will dodge the bullet on this one. Looks like Oahu will feel the effect of this one Thursday night if current track and speed hold. Tropical Storm force winds extend 140 mile at the 5am HST report. We will see the swell a bit earlier. I will be in the Ala Wai tomorrow securing my boat.
I would not recommend going to the north shore there are no protected harbors their either. You could go to Kaneohe Bay but it is a wide open bay not to many places to hide there.
Unfortunately there are few good place to hide from hurricane in Hawaii. You could move the boat to Ko Olina Marina more expensive than where I think you are but better maintained.

[Suijin]

If you can get to Kaneohe/Mahinui and throw out some anchors before retreating to a hotel I think your boat will fare better than in Honolulu.

The mountains will offer significant protection from the wind if it stays in its cone and the storm surge will be markedly less.

I think Honolulu is in a really bad spot for the track. I’d frankly rather be anywhere else.

[Cruising4Christ]

Wholybee - We’ll be praying you stay safe. Please update us on your situation and when things settle...and sink in...give us a lessons learned and best case scenario based on your options and decisions if you would.

I was stuck taking refuge in a cliff side house in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico for Odile in 2013, Cat 4 downgraded to 3 once landfall. Concrete walls shook like the wings of an airplane, not fun.

[masonc]

Make sure you remove everything, sails, bimini, dodger, BBQ, anything that can add to windage.