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Old 15-09-2017, 04:51   #1
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15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

Copied from the NOAA website:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3
days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
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Old 15-09-2017, 04:56   #2
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

thanks pete
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Old 15-09-2017, 07:14   #3
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

Antigua Met Service has issued an Alert Statement for Invest 96L as follows:-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (INVEST AL96) ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
6:00 AM ECT FRI SEP 15 2017
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA...
THE MONITORED AREA IS THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WHICH MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES TO HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA FORM OR TRAVERSE.
AT 6 AM ECT OR 1000 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS AND A HURRICANE IN FOUR DAYS, NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
GIVEN THE PROJECTIONS, A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR DISTURBANCE AL96 AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
antiguamet.com
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Old 16-09-2017, 05:43   #4
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

16sept :copied from antigua weather group


The following is from the NHC outlook at 8:00 AM today on Invest 96L:-
"Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Hurricane or tropical storm watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent."

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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Old 16-09-2017, 06:39   #5
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

16 sept,from noaa

Caribbean - Visible Loop (HTML5) - Satellite Products and Services Division/Office of Satellite and Product Operations

usefull link here for reports and analysis

http://stormcarib.com/
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Old 16-09-2017, 08:21   #6
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

HEADS UP WINDIES AND LEEWARDS!
IT HAS A NAME NOW TS LEE

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN
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Old 16-09-2017, 11:51   #7
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 161730
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better
organized and is now classified as a tropical depression.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 51.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph (30 km/h). A
slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the
Leeward Islands on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The depression
is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could be near
hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands
through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Old 16-09-2017, 16:03   #8
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

formation and track #maria
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...-rgb-long.html

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...17091612&fh=60
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Old 16-09-2017, 16:09   #9
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

For now with a little luck Maria will be passing just South of St Croix I hope my Mary Jane makes it at Green Cay marina. Wish us luck
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Old 16-09-2017, 16:50   #10
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

pretty picture.....the big picture 16/9

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/ant...G/TagBisat.jpg
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Old 17-09-2017, 01:44   #11
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

17sept french met office,you can translate the page,REAL time Radar for guadaloupe and antilles,top righ of page(,as coming from europe latest analysis available earlier than noaa )useful wx reasource as storm enters the island area

METEO FRANCE ANTILLES GUYANE - Activité cyclonique en cours sur la Guadeloupe, la Martinique ou la Guyane

noaa forcast 17sept 0300 utc
Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory
ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR ST. MAARTEN.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* GUADELOUPE
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE BRITISH AND U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 53.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 53.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 53.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.1N 55.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.9N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.6N 59.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 60.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.0N 66.5W...NEAR COAST OF PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old 17-09-2017, 21:23   #12
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

18sept Hurricane Maria Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 180248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Hurricane and Tropical storm Warnings may be issued for
portion of the Leeward and Virgin Islands on Monday, and
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the
nearby islands Monday morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 58.4 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the
Leeward Islands late Monday and Monday night and then over the
extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a major hurricane as it
moves through the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning during the day on Monday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the tropical storm watch area later tonight through
Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night. Maria is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining
northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, as well as the
Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Old 17-09-2017, 21:56   #13
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

real time radar from barbados of maria

Sabre||Reflectivity||EC_Bar
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Old 18-09-2017, 19:24   #14
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Special Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Martique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later
tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 61.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent
Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and
approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica,
Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical
storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward
Islands. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder
of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday
through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight,
and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican
Republic on Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where
the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
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Old 18-09-2017, 19:27   #15
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Re: 15 Sep 17 - Outlook for Caribbean

19 sept update
Hurricane Maria Update Statement
ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica
around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH
(260 KM/H).

The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory
package.

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
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