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Old 06-07-2019, 14:10   #1
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Your government at work...

And for once, it's a good thing.

Don't think I've ever seen this;



but it says a lot about how far hurricane prediction, and weather prediction in general, have come in the last 10-15 years.

The forecast that goes with it;


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week. Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek. *

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. *
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake


Given the penchant for rapid intensification we've seen in the last several years, systems like this bear watching for those of us on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico; when they form that close, time for preparing can be perilously short.
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Old 06-07-2019, 14:19   #2
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Re: Your government at work...

wtf, i mean really, WTF... and i never write wtf.
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Old 06-07-2019, 14:38   #3
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Re: Your government at work...

Translation - the current stationary high over the SE will eventually move and allow the next weather pattern to move.
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Old 06-07-2019, 15:59   #4
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Your government at work...

No, I believe they are forecasting a nearly dead South track of a low, and the likely hood of it intensifying, and I assume then tracking North, which I’d say is unusual. The Southern track at least.
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Old 07-07-2019, 11:41   #5
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Re: Your government at work...

A revision to George Carlin's quote:

“Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered, easterly light by morning. Brightness peaking around mid-day, then diminishing gradually in the evening hours and shifting towards westerly and thence progressing to partly dark later in the evening, then dark again overnight.”



The typical question is whether the weather forecast has a 50% chance of being right or a 50% chance of being wrong or a 100% of neither.

But just to be safe, be sure to dash out to the store to stock up on Bread, Milk and Batteries. If you live in the South, one can never have too much Bread, Milk or Batteries.
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Old 07-07-2019, 11:42   #6
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Re: Your government at work...

This could get interesting
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Old 07-07-2019, 12:14   #7
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Re: Your government at work...

Check out this NOAA severe weather outlook for days 4 to 8:

http://https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Each day's nationwide forecast is listed as Predictability Too Low so there are no
severe weather predictions listed for anywhere in the 48 States.

See image below.

Stay safe out there!
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Old 07-07-2019, 12:29   #8
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Re: Your government at work...

Well as to weather forecasts, who are you inclined to trust more, NOAA or the rodent?
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Old 07-07-2019, 12:40   #9
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Re: Your government at work...

Oppsy-daisey!

Even when NOAA is operating 'n its prime, weather predictions and predictors can be challenging.
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Old 07-07-2019, 12:46   #10
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Re: Your government at work...

For the latest weather guidance stay tuned in, just like Dorthy does.
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Old 07-07-2019, 12:58   #11
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Your government at work...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montanan View Post
Well as to weather forecasts, who are you inclined to trust more, NOAA or the rodent?


I know we all joke about it with what other job could you have and be wrong 50% of the time and keep it?
As pilots we used to threaten that we were going to install a window in the forecasters office they seemed to be wrong so often, and wouldn’t update the forecast to take current conditions into account.

But I love them, they have actually saved my Butt more times than I can count. Although I won’t admit it in front of one
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Old 07-07-2019, 13:00   #12
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Re: Your government at work...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montanan View Post
Oppsy-daisey!



Even when NOAA is operating 'n its prime, weather predictions and predictors can be challenging.


What is hilarious about that to me is two fold, first that thing looks to be a supersized floor jack, and then what fool thought it a good idea not to bolt it to the jack?
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Old 07-07-2019, 13:12   #13
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Re: Your government at work...

NOAA's temperature regulator.

Turn towards starboard for global warming, towards port for global chilling.
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Old 07-07-2019, 13:14   #14
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Re: Your government at work...

I just hope that years from now we aren't saying,"Remember that hurricane that started in Tennessee that time?"
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Old 07-07-2019, 13:21   #15
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Re: Your government at work...

Im not seeing anything worthy of critisism here. They are tracking a weather feature that is unlikely to develop, but could. Thats info worth knowing...esp if you are in the FL panhandle...as some members are. And they've bumped probabilty to 50%.

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