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Old 11-07-2019, 14:43   #61
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Re: Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by Montanan View Post
A bit of a technical issue, just trying to understand why it is called a "tropical" storm when it has not originated in nor is presently in the tropics. It is in the northern Gulf of Mexico south of Louisiana outside of the tropics.

The climate of that region is rather tropical in that it is nearly a frost-free zone, especially at this time of year and with a high temperature of the water.

A tropical storm is defined as: A tropical cyclone with strong winds of over 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour but less than 74 mph - hurricane intensity.

I realize that hurricane, typhoon and cyclone differ only as to spelling and what part of the globe they are located.

So what is the correct name for a cyclonic type storm with wind speed of over 39 mph and below 74 mph that is located outside of the tropics?
Good question, I think it should be called "subtropical" but NOAA is calling it "tropical". Something to research...
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Old 11-07-2019, 15:34   #62
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Re: Your government at work...

Well, as long as the northerly sheer holds up, we've dodged another bullet.
the entire northern semicircle is exposed, actually more like the northern sixty percent of the major circulation...



Animation here.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...OLOR&length=24



Tropical cyclone

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).
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Old 11-07-2019, 16:41   #63
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Re: Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by belizesailor View Post
Good question, I think it should be called "subtropical" but NOAA is calling it "tropical". Something to research...
Chris Parker was nice enough answer the question for me. Turns out its really not about latitude, but structure of system. Details below:


"
It's Tropical because it has a warm core (center / structure).

A non-Tropical LO has a "cold" core...and the mechanisms that support it include large-scale (airmass-scale) upper-divergence / surface-convergence and significant contrast in properties of airmasses adjacent to the LO (such as differences in temperatures / moisture).

A Tropical LO has a "warm" core...and the mechanisms that support it include strong and unfettered convection / rising moist air surrounding its center...and general subsidence (sinking dry air) away from the center. I like to call it a Tropical Heat Pump.

In order for the Tropical Heat Pump to function, a Tropical LO must be in a relatively warm environment, but there are cases where Tropical LO pressure systems occurred in only moderately warm environments.

But even if you were only concerned about the environmental temperatures...the air and sea surface temps in the GOMEX are presently as warm as or warmer than the temps in the Tropics.

Bottom line...Tropical or non-Tropical has nothing to do with the Latitude of the LO...and everything to do with its structure....Chris.

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Old 11-07-2019, 17:42   #64
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Re: Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by belizesailor View Post
Chris Parker was nice enough answer the question for me. Turns out its really not about latitude, but structure of system. Details below:


"
It's Tropical because it has a warm core (center / structure).

A non-Tropical LO has a "cold" core...and the mechanisms that support it include large-scale (airmass-scale) upper-divergence / surface-convergence and significant contrast in properties of airmasses adjacent to the LO (such as differences in temperatures / moisture).

A Tropical LO has a "warm" core...and the mechanisms that support it include strong and unfettered convection / rising moist air surrounding its center...and general subsidence (sinking dry air) away from the center. I like to call it a Tropical Heat Pump.

In order for the Tropical Heat Pump to function, a Tropical LO must be in a relatively warm environment, but there are cases where Tropical LO pressure systems occurred in only moderately warm environments.

But even if you were only concerned about the environmental temperatures...the air and sea surface temps in the GOMEX are presently as warm as or warmer than the temps in the Tropics.

Bottom line...Tropical or non-Tropical has nothing to do with the Latitude of the LO...and everything to do with its structure....Chris.

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"
Many thanks for the clarification as to "tropical" being associated with the structure of the storm and not the location per say.

Subtropics are denoted in the image below.
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Old 11-07-2019, 23:41   #65
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Re: Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by Montanan View Post
Many thanks for the clarification as to "tropical" being associated with the structure of the storm and not the location per say.

Subtropics are denoted in the image below.
Yes, if you start to read about the various categories (tropical, subtropical, extratropical) it can get a bit confusing, basing it on the structure of the storm is much clearer.
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Old 12-07-2019, 05:10   #66
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Re: Your government at work...

Geographically, a subtropical region lies between the tropical zone and temperate zone, at twenty-five to forty degrees north and south latitude; whereas tropical regions surround the Earth's equator, between 23.27 degrees north and south latitude.

Further to Belizesailor (& Chris Parker):

A subtropical storm exhibits features of both tropical and non-tropical systems. This includes no cold or warm fronts, a broad wind field and thunderstorms removed some distance from the centre of circulation.
Mature subtropical systems also often have a large, cloud-free centre, and a less symmetric wind field. Maximum sustained winds are also much farther from the centre, while the strongest winds in a tropical storm are close to the centre.
Subtropical cyclones typically are associated with upper-level lows and have colder temperatures aloft, whereas tropical cyclones are completely warm-core and upper-level high-pressure systems overhead help facilitate their intensification.
If the subtropical storm remains over warm water, thunderstorms can build close enough to the centre of circulation, and latent heat given off from the thunderstorms can warm the air enough to create a fully tropical storm.
As a result, the strongest winds and rain become closer to the centre and, with time, further intensification becomes possible.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/subtropical.asp

NOAA Definitions https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Subtropical Depression:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Subtropical Storm:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more.
When an area of low pressure forms over waters with sea-surface temperatures of at least 70 degrees, a subtropical low can form. This is due to the core of the storm becoming warm, deriving some of its energy from latent heat, or energy released when water vapour that evaporated from the warm water is condensed into liquid.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Tropical Disturbance:
A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection -- generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter -- originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).
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Old 12-07-2019, 06:58   #67
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Re: Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by belizesailor View Post
Yes, if you start to read about the various categories (tropical, subtropical, extratropical) it can get a bit confusing, basing it on the structure of the storm is much clearer.
Thanks Belizesailor and GordMay for the detailed answers. As Paul Harvey was famous for saying: "Now you know the rest of the story."

Upon moving from California to Montana, I learned a thing or two structurally about those cold centered storms but we never call them cyclones, as typically they are more like snowcones.

And we don't generally CATegorize the storms by a number scale either [prefer to use dog teams to pull sleds]. Our forecasts are measured in feet and inches of snow instead of the velocity of air.

Stay safe everyone.
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Old 12-07-2019, 07:35   #68
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Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by Bullshooter View Post
Should we just evacuate all areas that flood? Records for rainfall are being broken on a regular basis.

To those who say that taxpayer money should not be wasted on New Orleans, just move - where do you live?


It would seem logical that moving would be an intelligent course of action donít you think?
If I lived there, the land, business, house whatever would be up for sale, cause I think your right, itís not a matter of if, itís a matter of when. Of course I guess one idea may be to hold out and hope the Government will give you more than itís worth.
Me, I live on a boat, and I do my best to secure it in Hurricane season, I donít think I should continue to enjoy my boat during hurricane season in an area where itís not secure, with the idea that the Federal Government will bail me out when a Hurricane destroys the boat.

I edited out a lot of your post in my quote. But most of it was a thoughtful and I believe correct dissertation of exactly why New Orleans should be evacuated.
But if your correct and I believe you are, itís a matter of time that New Orleans will be flooded, severely and likely lives lost and extreme property damage. It can be delayed maybe with an extreme expenditure of taxpayers money likely into the Billions, but of your correct it is wasted money, cause it only delays the inevitable.
But do you really think that money should be spent for a tiny fraction of the taxpayer base to continue to enjoy their chosen place to live, for a limited time?

Yes, I would include Miami and New York in that too, and any other place that is a flood prone area.

I see it as being no different than the many towns etc that were condemned in the Mississippi River valley for flooding, and or the towns that were condemned when a Dam is built etc.
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Old 12-07-2019, 07:52   #69
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Re: Your government at work...

"Look, there are three ways that Louisiana floods: storm surge, high rivers and rain," Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said Thursday. "We're going to have all three."

"Gulf Coast residents should prepare now for heavy rains, flooding and high wind impacts regardless of this storm's category," the FEMA statement said.
In New Orleans, 118 of city 120 pumps that drain neighborhoods are in working order, Sewerage & Water Board spokeswoman Courtney Barnes said. The two that aren't are relatively small, she said, and are at stations with other functioning pumps in the Lakeview area and New Orleans East.

Still, the system of pumps, underground pipes and canals is designed to remove only 1 inch of rainwater in the first hour of a storm and a half-inch in subsequent hours. It simply could not keep up with Wednesday's downpour, Barnes said, noting that any system in the country would have been outpaced.
"There's no system designed to pump that capacity of rain," she said.
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Old 12-07-2019, 08:39   #70
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Re: Your government at work...

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It would seem logical that moving would be an intelligent course of action don’t you think?
If I lived there, the land, business, house whatever would be up for sale, cause I think your right, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. Of course I guess one idea may be to hold out and hope the Government will give you more than it’s worth.
Me, I live on a boat, and I do my best to secure it in Hurricane season, I don’t think I should continue to enjoy my boat during hurricane season in an area where it’s not secure, with the idea that the Federal Government will bail me out when a Hurricane destroys the boat.

So we also need to evacuate California? I mean they live on a fault line and have fires.

And everyone in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas need to move their boats in the summer?

Oh, and the midwest gets tornadoes. The North gets winter storms and hail.

I get why people think we would abandon New Orleans, but that city is in fact unique to the world, and it would be a true tragedy to abandon it, just like it would be a tragedy to abandon Venice, Italy, and all of the Netherlands, along with most Caribbean islands.
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Old 12-07-2019, 09:22   #71
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Re: Your government at work...

I just think the use of government money to protect people should be equally distributed. Should we give $12 billion to farmers for one year of their crops like we recently did? Should all areas that flood be protected, or abandoned?

I don't have the answers. Though I grew up in New Orleans and it is hard to abandon my family and friends, I have a pretty coldly objective view. I would note that the Port is important, even on a global basis. See this description, although the Port of South Louisiana includes areas outside of the city, upriver and somewhat flood prone as well.

" 6. Port of South Louisiana, United States

As you might expect, the largest port in the United States falls along the mammoth expanse of the great Mississippi River.

As well as occupying a top spot in the world largest shipping ports and the largest in America, the Port of South Louisiana is also one of the biggest bulk cargo ports in the world. As recorded in the First Quarter 2013 Tonnage Report, the Port of South Louisiana accounts for up 70 percent of the nation’s grain exports, including wheat, soy and corn."

Also note, Fourchon, a port south of New Orleans, is vulnerable to hurricanes.

"Fact: Port Fourchon services over 90 percent of the Gulf of Mexico's deep water oil production with more than 600 oil platforms within a 40-mile radius. This area supplies 16-to-18 percent of the United States’ oil supply.)"

Obviously there are no simple answers. Just abandon New Orleans, where by far the greatest concentration of valuable infrastructure and people are? Or all of the vulnerable coastal areas? With its upgraded levee system, New Orleans is better protected than most of the cities along the Gulf Coast which were devastated by Katrina and Rita and have been rebuilt.

Full disclosure: As a Corps of Engineers biologist, I was assigned as the Environmental Manager of the LACPR study. That means I was the lead (briefly) on the Environmental Impact Study until I left in 2006. "The LACPR initiative represents the first Congressional mandate for coordination of coastal restoration and hurricane risk reduction in Louisiana. It encompasses all of coastal Louisiana and integrates water resources objectives of hurricane protection, flood control and coastal restoration."

Sort of a lot on my plate while I played general contractor on the rebuild of my flooded home.
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Old 12-07-2019, 09:22   #72
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Re: Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 View Post
So we also need to evacuate California? I mean they live on a fault line and have fires.

And everyone in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas need to move their boats in the summer?

Oh, and the midwest gets tornadoes. The North gets winter storms and hail.

I get why people think we would abandon New Orleans, but that city is in fact unique to the world, and it would be a true tragedy to abandon it, just like it would be a tragedy to abandon Venice, Italy, and all of the Netherlands, along with most Caribbean islands.
Live there (all those places) fine.

Buy insurance to off set risk (if you can) - great

Have a natural disaster, send in food - medicine - water - temp shelter. Awesome that's what other people are there for.

Help you rebuild in the same stupid spot. Nope you pay for that.
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Old 12-07-2019, 09:44   #73
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Your government at work...

Quote:
Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 View Post
So we also need to evacuate California? I mean they live on a fault line and have fires.

And everyone in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas need to move their boats in the summer?

Oh, and the midwest gets tornadoes. The North gets winter storms and hail.

I get why people think we would abandon New Orleans, but that city is in fact unique to the world, and it would be a true tragedy to abandon it, just like it would be a tragedy to abandon Venice, Italy, and all of the Netherlands, along with most Caribbean islands.


Based on the likelihood of occurrence, then yes move.
Look I sold and moved out of a town that was going downhill, had been for the last 20 years or so, every year land and house values plummeting. I sold the ďfamilyĒ farm and moved, the writing was on the wall. Did I like it. No, but I was a realist enough to know that I had no long term future there, the writing was on the wall.

Have a boat in Fl? Yes you should find a way to protect it, whether that means move it or dry storage, whatever it takes.
However just sitting there watching the Hurricane approach and expecting money from the Government is a fools game.

You yourself said that itís getting worse and itís inevitable.
I guess continuing to live there is your right, but I donít think you should expect me or others to finance it.

I guess people should be allowed to smoke too, but I donít think I should pay their medical bills for that, or for being obese either.
But then Iím a mean and evil person apparently cause I wouldnít pay someone disability from them being too obese to work.
Iíd help pay for a weight watchers program or similar, once.
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Old 12-07-2019, 09:45   #74
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Re: Your government at work...

We all joke around about the ďweather menĒ but they save our combined backsides all the time. I for one have a healthy respect for Mother Nature.
If one does not take these forecasts seriously, well, one reaps what one sows as it were.

Fair winds,
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Old 12-07-2019, 09:49   #75
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Re: Your government at work...

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Originally Posted by dwedeking2 View Post
Live there (all those places) fine.

Buy insurance to off set risk (if you can) - great

Have a natural disaster, send in food - medicine - water - temp shelter. Awesome that's what other people are there for.

Help you rebuild in the same stupid spot. Nope you pay for that.
I agree that there is merit to that approach. While there would be hardships associated with that policy, when there is rebuild money available, perhaps it should be restricted to areas with some standard of safety. Over time, the population would move out of the areas that get flooded the most.

One interesting story: After Katrina, there was briefly a plan to make several areas in New Orleans, indicated as big green dots on the map, where no rebuilding would be allowed. Landowners would be bought out and the areas would be turned into parks. My house was in one, and I thought it was okay, I would move. There was a lot of opposition, but one incident told me with certainty that it would never happen. Some homes had been literally pushed by the floodwaters into the middle of a street. The mayor announced plans to bulldoze those homes, and there was marching in the streets protesting against it! They were in the G---amn street! Oh well. I thought that there should be a requirement that if you get rebuild money you had to elevate the house, but it didn't happen.

dwedeking2, do you live in Key West? That certainly looks like hurricane bait.
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