Why is it So Cold Right Now? (Polar Vortex)

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Do you have a source for this statement? However if the stations were near the equator then their readings should have been hotter than the current national stats. So no, I don't see the hypocrisy in the current statistics.

used to but was an au.gov site that no longer exists .
I will go through the archives to find the data again .

One was in Darwin and don't recall where the other was and I may be off on the location because if I recall the oldest station was and still is in Adelaide

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

So what. We have been talking about a Polar Vortex so of course the lakes are going to freeze. Did you know that the Arctic is warmer than normal, even now?

I was just pointing out how fast it froze over which is out of the normal
yes it is but not by much I estimate about 2 or 3 ℃

[DeepFrz]

Originally Posted by newhaul

I was just pointing out how fast it froze over which is out of the normal
yes it is but not by much I estimate about 2 or 3 ℃

You estimate. What are your credentials again? What compute power do you have access to?

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

You estimate. What are your credentials again? What compute power do you have access to?

I never gave my credentials don't feel the need either . You wouldn't believe anything I type . I'm a skeptic!
just look at the graph and decide for yourself .
Keep in mind the temperatures are in Kelvin.
Looks to me to be between 2 and 3 deg k ( which is the same scale as ℃)

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

You estimate. What are your credentials again? What compute power do you have access to?

how about this for computer power.
https://www.weather-forecast.com/map...one&type=lapse

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Here are a few stats. to go with that poem about Australia weather.
January 2019 was Australia's hottest month since records began in 1910, data to be released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) today will show.
Key points:

There was less than 20 per cent of normal rainfall for large areas of Australia
Canberra Airport had a record run of four days above 40C
BOM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said last month's heat was unprecedented

It followed the hottest December on record for Australia and there is no relief in sight for the months ahead.

January had the highest minimum, the highest maximum and the highest mean temperatures for Australia as a whole.

If we could only pipe our heat to you guys and you guys could pipe your cold to us this whole climate change hoohah thing would be resolved.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by newhaul

I seem to recall some of them saying we would be in a mini ice age in 50 years.
Somewhere about 1975 which would mean 50 years 2025 lets just see where we are in 6 years...

Indeed, in the 1970s, there was a book in the popular press, a few articles in popular magazines, and a very small amount of scientific speculation, based on the recently discovered glacial cycles and the recent slight cooling trend from air pollution blocking the sunlight.

There was, however, no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age.

In fact, the possibility (likelihood) of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then. The fact is that, around 1970, there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet.

Between 1965 and 1979, 44 scientific papers predicted warming, 20 were neutral and just 7 predicted cooling. So while predictions of cooling got more media attention, the majority of scientists were predicting warming even then - just like today.

"THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS" ~ BY THOMAS C. PETERSON, et al
➥ https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf...2008BAMS2370.1

The 1979 report from the National Academy of Sciences, "Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment" found that:
"... the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and 3.5°C, with greater increases at high latitudes.."
➥ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12181/ca...fic-assessment

[Adelie]

I haven’t really seen any connection to cruising in the last 20 posts or so. Did I miss something?

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Adelie

I haven’t really seen any connection to cruising in the last 20 posts or so. Did I miss something?

the only connection I have seen from the start is sailors bs ing while waiting for the spring breakup. And thaw so we can get back to the serious bit of constant boat maintenance.

[Sand crab]

Well, I'm going to cruising to Alaska tomorrow. They cancelled 2 dog sled races due to rain.

[fatherchronica]

weather is of interest to boaters of all kinds. And, concerning how well houses are attached to the earth, our house is just a few feet above sea level, in a tsunami zone, about 20 miles from the Cascadia fault, and we assume it would refloat quite readily. Consequently we have a boat on a trailer anchored with 300 feet of 5/16s rode next to our house.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Sand crab

Well, I'm going to cruising to Alaska tomorrow. They cancelled 2 dog sled races due to rain.

weather just like the NOAA reconstructs of temperatures during the little ice age

[Freedom45]

I'm happy I live on a boat, the weather is great here in the Marshall Islands.
What is that metaphore about trimming your sails.......
I use a thermometer as a compass.

[DeepFrz]

Because climate affects weather it should be of great concern to sea going folks. Environment Canada has reset the data it uses in its model predictions because as the earth has warmed weather patterns have changed. I surmise that other agencies have done the same but I can only state with surety that Env. Ca. has done that. It really isn't all that useful to look at old weather patterns and feel confidant that you are reliably able to predict what will happen on your next voyage.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

... It really isn't all that useful to look at old weather patterns and feel confidant that you are reliably able to predict what will happen on your next voyage.

Once a climate model is set up, it can be tested via a process known as “hind-casting”. This process runs the model from the present time backwards into the past. The model results are then compared with observed climate and weather conditions to see how well they match. This testing allows scientists to check the accuracy of the models and, if needed, revise its equations.