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Old 06-02-2017, 07:02   #1
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Weather models / Gribs for eastern US Coasts

Hello

Which weather forecast models do you use, do you trust for Eastern US Coast ?

GFS ? ECMWF ? NAM ? any other one ?

thank you for your advices
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Old 06-02-2017, 07:34   #2
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Re: Weather models / Gribs for eastern US Coasts

All and none! Several weeks before a trip I start watching the various models to see which ones are more accurate. Sometimes one model is on a hot streak and another is off, then it changes. When they agree it is reassuring.
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Old 06-02-2017, 07:39   #3
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Re: Weather models / Gribs for eastern US Coasts

Thank you for this fast answer.

So , Comparison is the "key to success"

I have heard and read about HRRR and RAP , are those models more accurate due to their quick production with short term forecast ?

I'm looking for "inshore" and daily weather forecast for racing and cruising. Not for a transatlantic passage.
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Old 07-02-2017, 00:30   #4
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Re: Weather models / Gribs for eastern US Coasts

When we sailed that side of the world we used several and made our own forecast. 1st was Chris Parker - we supplemented that gribs via winlink, we also used windfinder, and windguru - for a long look we used noaa models and guidance -
we also like passage weather and are now looking at windty which for us right now seems a bit better than windfinder -
We never ever used one but several and made up our minds and still do
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Old 07-02-2017, 13:48   #5
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Re: Weather models / Gribs for eastern US Coasts

You may look at the NAM model, using mesoscale.

In the mesoscale type of model, they account up to some point for local geographical irregularity, while for instance GFS or GEM don't and only get the big picture. Also, you should prefer model with very small grid size, since it is usually considered that looking into anything smaller than 5 grid points will not get you something relevant.

A GRID numerical weather forecast is raw computer output. Computing power will never reach Mother Nature computing power and chaos nature of weather.
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Old 07-02-2017, 15:32   #6
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Re: Weather models / Gribs for eastern US Coasts

I always reccomend using Chris Parker @ Caribbean Weather Center.
90% of the time he is right on and you can access him on SSB or on the internet beginning at 6:00AM Monday thru Saturday.
Have used Chris for over 10 years and crossed both oceans with his guidance and have been very satisfied.
If you shop around, you can find some weather site to tell you what YOU want to hear, not what is likely to be.
Look into Chris and listen to a few of his broadcasts
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Old 10-02-2017, 06:13   #7
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Re: Weather models / Gribs for eastern US Coasts

This subscription with SQUID may be a solution, not so expensive but it needs some weather knowledge to understand the in's and out's

not a human analysis , just weather data (with NAM, HRRR & RAP)

HI-RES USA - Squid - The Best Weather Data Provider
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