Very useful new weather forecast resource

[conachair]

This looks extremely useful.
NAEFS Probabilistic Wind Speed Guidance

Probability of windspeeds rather than just a grib with no indication of level of confidence in the output.

[Franziska]

Looks very interesting indeed!

[Bean Counter]

Book marked this - thanks!

[S/V Illusion]

Color coded areas of compressed isobars. When I was in the Coast Guard, we used to use a red crayon on a simple grib file printout to get the same picture. Looks like someone is trying to capitalize on an old technique.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Color coded areas of compressed isobars. When I was in the Coast Guard, we used to use a red crayon on a simple grib file printout to get the same picture. Looks like someone is trying to capitalize on an old technique.

Probabilistic analyse of model ensemble output is a very long way from some crayon on a fax .

[atoll]

Originally Posted by conachair

This looks extremely useful.
NAEFS Probabilistic Wind Speed Guidance

Probability of windspeeds rather than just a grib with no indication of level of confidence in the output.

16 day prediction looks very useful for passage planning in ocean areas,TY

[tuskie]

It doesn't appear that the Pacific Ocean extends into the southern hemisphere.

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by conachair

Probabilistic analyse of model ensemble output is a very long way from some crayon on a fax .

Quite correct. The latter requires some thought and insight with a bit of experience. Such was the state of the art in those days (twentieth century).

[conachair]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Quite correct. The latter requires some thought and insight with a bit of experience. Such was the state of the art in those days (twentieth century).

Computing power and forecasting models have come on massively even in the past decade.

[roland stockham]

Originally Posted by conachair

This looks extremely useful.
NAEFS Probabilistic Wind Speed Guidance

Probability of windspeeds rather than just a grib with no indication of level of confidence in the output.

Still 'just a grib' but with computer generated highlights. A very useful touch but still no input from a forecaster. The level of experience behind the guy with the crayon begins to make it a forecast. I would go with this as an improvement to a grib but still use the USCG Wx service as the main source of weather info. My rule is that if it doesn't show fronts it's not a forecast. Since the navy give us their professionally produced forecasts every 6hr for free why wouldn't you use them?

[waterman46]

Originally Posted by tuskie

It doesn't appear that the Pacific Ocean extends into the southern hemisphere.

Yeah that's the issue with many of the products produced in the US, of course we its understandable that they want to concentrate their resources on weather in or coastal to the US. I do like the unique presentations of that website but it is not useful south of La Paz Mex or Hawaii in the Pacific, which leaves out most of us.

[roland stockham]

If you are going via Internet try this new service from the National Hurricane Center. Gives forecast grid boxes right down to Panama with detailed maps showing position of the ITC and fronts
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
(hope the link works!)

[kapnkarl]

Originally Posted by roland stockham

Still 'just a grib' but with computer generated highlights. A very useful touch but still no input from a forecaster. The level of experience behind the guy with the crayon begins to make it a forecast. I would go with this as an improvement to a grib but still use the USCG Wx service as the main source of weather info. My rule is that if it doesn't show fronts it's not a forecast. Since the navy give us their professionally produced forecasts every 6hr for free why wouldn't you use them?

Could you share the URL for the USCG Wx site you're referring to?
Thanks

[RichandHelen]

NOAA forecast 15-20 knots in this area last week. Thought fondly about them all night long in my protected anchorage with a steady 30-35 knots.

[roland stockham]

Originally Posted by kapnkarl

Could you share the URL for the USCG Wx site you're referring to?
Thanks

Radiofax Charts - Pt. Reyes, CA

The link I posted above is the new service which may replace this one if you are using the internet rather than radiofax. At the moment they are still doing both. New service is more local and detailed Wx charts are wider area so less detailed but give the overall picture from top of Baja to equator.