"The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters”

[GordMay]

Weather-related disasters such as floods and heatwaves have occurred almost daily in the past decade, almost twice as often as two decades ago, with Asia being the hardest hit region, a UN report* said on Monday.

While the report authors could not pin the increase wholly on climate change, they did say that the upward trend was likely to continue as extreme weather events increased.

Since 1995, weather disasters have killed 606,000 people, left 4.1 billion injured, homeless or in need of aid, and accounted for 90 per cent of all disasters, it said.
The report found there were an average of 335 weather-related disasters annually between 2005 and August this year, up 14 per cent from 1995-2004 and almost twice as many as in the years from 1985 to 1994.

* "The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters”
The Report ➥ http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb...2015_FINAL.pdf

[a64pilot]

I'd bet the population density and that people due to this density are living in less desirable areas may share some of the blame.
I do wonder if the worlds population is more or less prosperous now? Thinking that if you're close to the edge it doesn't take as much to be a disaster


Sent from my iPad Pro using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[GordMay]

Yes, I think that both population density, and distribution, play into this scenario.
Due to population pressures, people now live in areas that are basically unsafe.
Hundred of thousands of people died in 2010-2011 because they lived on floodplains in Pakistan or by the tsunami-prone coast of Japan. These regions were sparsely populated 30 years ago.

[jongleur]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I'd bet the population density and that people due to this density are living in less desirable areas may share some of the blame.
I do wonder if the worlds population is more or less prosperous now? Thinking that if you're close to the edge it doesn't take as much to be a disaster


Sent from my iPad Pro using Cruisers Sailing Forum

+1 I agree.

[AiniA]

In general, natural hazards cause more deaths in poorer places and more property damage in wealthier places - not a surprise at all. The world is definitely becoming wealthier with dramatic decreases in poverty rates particularly in China and much (but not all of) the developing world - Africa now has economic growth rates higher than Asia. This would suggest that the financial cost of weather disasters in particular will keep increasing. I agree that higher populations mean that marginal areas are now settled. Climate change should not be ignored though.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

... I do wonder if the worlds population is more or less prosperous now? Thinking that if you're close to the edge it doesn't take as much to be a disaster.

American adults are, on average, three times richer than their grandparents, and their grandchildren will likely be three times richer than they are. That's in real dollars with inflation removed.
Furthermore, people in most developing countries are now also increasing their standards of living. Historically, poor and rich countries grew at roughly the same rate, but in the last decade we've seen a bunch of poor countries growing rapidly — not just China and India, but also parts of Africa and other places.

Bill Gates has an interesting take on this.
➥ http://www.gatesnotes.com/2015-annua...ction=myth-one

[StuM]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I'd bet the population density and that people due to this density are living in less desirable areas may share some of the blame.
I do wonder if the worlds population is more or less prosperous now? Thinking that if you're close to the edge it doesn't take as much to be a disaster


Sent from my iPad Pro using Cruisers Sailing Forum

You win your bet

The report itself says as much:

"In order to plan for future risk reduction, two critical factors
must be kept in mind: population growth will continue to put
more and more people in harm’s way, while uncontrolled
building on flood plains and storm-prone coastal zones will
increase human vulnerabilities to extreme weather events. The
cost of such vulnerability is already evident from mounting
death tolls since 1995, which have risen on average despite
an overall decline in the absolute and relative numbers of
people affected by weather-related disasters."

While the report authors could not pin the increase wholly on climate change, they did say that the upward trend was likely to continue as extreme weather events increased.

Obligatory kow-tow to the alarmists, but the report itself is actually well done without all the usual "climate change" gloom and doom hype.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by GordMay

American adults are, on average, three times richer than their grandparents, and their grandchildren will likely be three times richer than they are. That's in real dollars with inflation removed.
Furthermore, people in most developing countries are now also increasing their standards of living. Historically, poor and rich countries grew at roughly the same rate, but in the last decade we've seen a bunch of poor countries growing rapidly — not just China and India, but also parts of Africa and other places.

I don't normally (ever?) quibble with your factual statements Gord, but on this one I think you've may have missed. For the vast majority of Americans, their real wealth adjusted for inflation has barely changed over the last 50 years. It's true that the top quintile, and most especially the top 5%, have seen dramatic increases in real wealth over the last five decades, but that's not the case for most Americans:

Household Income Analysis

Globally it's certainly true there has been a huge lift in global standards of living and wealth for most people, but not for Americans. I'd bet Canadian trends are similar, as well as most Anglo-western countries.

[roverhi]

We've gone from 70% of the worlds population living on the edge of starvation at the beginning of the 20th century to 15% at its end. Almost all of that change is due to fossil fuel and chemical fertilizer. That is despite a huge gain in population.

[roverhi]

That should be 70% on the edge of starvation at the beginnig of the 19th century.

[LakeSuperior]

I'm not sure but I suspect we are the first generation to see a doubling of the world population in one lifetime.

[jongleur]

Originally Posted by GordMay

American adults are, on average, three times richer than their grandparents...[/url]

Y'know what they say about averages:
Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Larry Ellison
and Charles and David Koch walk
into a bar...

[Pelagic]

In the past...these mind numbing statistics of human starvation due to weather events, created only ripples of action to relive the suffering.

Rock Concerts funding charity organizations put band aids on the problem.... and soon was forgotten.

Today, .....Social Media, Global Internet and a winning political strategy of encouraging "entitlement" has opened the floodgates of economic refugees whose masses now understand that national borders can no longer keep them from finding family security, if they arrive in the hundreds of thousands.

The biggest challenge is not the weather, but the lack of infrastructure to buffer any climate changes or revolutionary movement to empower special interests.

We are living in interesting times where borders have lost their value and ownership is now a moral judgement.

[LakeSuperior]

"Just about every type of extreme weather event is becoming less frequent and less severe in recent years as our planet continues its modest warming in the wake of the Little Ice Age. While global warming activists attempt to spin a narrative of ever-worsening weather, the objective facts tell a completely different story." Forbes Welcome

[jongleur]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

I'm not sure but I suspect we are the first generation to see a doubling of the world population in one lifetime.

That horse has left the barn many times
over. 1930 to 1975 was 2 billion to 4 billion.
1930 to now was well over tripling.