NOAA Hurricane Forecasts

[nwdiver]

It's called a PERDICTION for a reason..........

[zeehag]

ohmy folks want to have a certainty , a guaranteed weather--hahahahaha shows ignorance . there is no such thing as perfection in natures weather. except the beauty of a deadly storm.
when one uses tools i presume one learns how to use those tools BEFORE digging into a project/ weather prediction is a tool. there are words to this effect in all forecasts and predictions. dont wanna read em or learn to use the tool to optimum levels?? not anyones problem but your own. there are disclaimers in everything because no one has a brain anymore. no one has common sense. no one can read a sky or water no one can read.
i am soooo impressed. there are NO guarantees with weather, never have been .
so suddenly someone needs a guarantee? so sue mother nature.
NOAA means NOT ONE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT. read your own information and figure your own weather if you donot like that which is spoon fed you.

[danielamartindm]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

So, where did you think she was going to go? Maybe you are one of the people that think we should fire all scientists and just rely on POTUS to tell us where hurricanes are going to go or even if one is coming. Get real with your expectations.

Thank the gods for NOAA.

Get real with yur politics, they are polluting your science.

[S/V Illusion]

The eye of the storm passed 40 miles east of us.

Never, at any time, did we enter the cone of uncertainty until 48 hours prior. And during that last 48 hours, all predictions indicated the storm would indeed pass east of us, as it did.

The only flaw in the prediction we observed was the intensity. While everyone was predicting a cat3 or higher, we experienced a cat1 storm.

I'd give the weather alchemists a grade of 'C' for their precision based on the fact they exaggerated the magnitude here.

People forget the damaging zone of influence is far smaller than that portrayed.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by danielamartindm

I know that I'll take a lot of flack for this thread from people who feel all is as it should be with hurricane forecasting, but I have a problem with it. 48 hours before Irma made landfall, NOAA was predicting disaster for the East Coast of Florida. The media ran with the ball, and many thousands of East Coast Floridians evacuated to points north. Then, two days before landfall, NOAA changed its prediction, and said that Irma would track the WEST Coast, and residents there were left with limited options. In each case, the media played it up with lurid headlines predicting massive death and destruction on BOTH coasts. The fact is, NOAA's "cone" for East Coast tracking did not encompass the actual West Coast track of Irma. IMHO, if NOAA cannot reliably predict the track of tropical cyclones even 48 hours in advance, it should widen the "cones" of its track predictions. As presently structured, they are imparting a false sense of security to some, and a false sense of certain danger to others. Why not just be honest and say "We have theories, but we really don't know WHERE it's going, even 48 hours in advance?" That's the obvious truth, why not tell it? And please don't tell me "They do," with their fine print disclaimers. People take the graphics they serve up as gospel.

Caveat emptor (or in this case, maybe caveat acceptor bonum [if that is correct Latin usage]) is more apropros...

Perhaps you'd prefer they'd 'predicted' a day 'with a little more wind and rain than normal'?

The predictions and forecasts from the NHC are based on a consensus of many different models, and they do a very good job of forecasting track, though not so good at intensity.

They also publish a synopsis of every storm, as will as a critique of how well they did in their predictions. For instance, go to page 23 of this report and you can read how well they did for Matthew last year.

file:///C:/Users/owner/AppData/Local...16_Matthew.pdf

You can also find how well they do on forecasts here:

National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification

'People' who 'take the graphics they serve up as gospel' probably get what they deserve.

There are many many more opportunities to be well informed than there were even 10 years ago, and the information is much better to boot.

It seems a little disingenuous to blame the NHC for your inability to determine fact (as far as there can be 'facts' when attempting to forecast such a dynamic and chaotic event days in advance) from fiction...

If you are in harm's way, get your information from this site, turn off your TV and blog sites or wherever you're getting this misinformation from, and make your own decisions.

National Hurricane Center

There is more than enough information on there to make your own predictions, and you can even compare your predictions to those made by professional meteorologists...plus you have the added bonus of taking responsibility for your own actions.

[dwedeking2]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

If you are in harm's way, get your information from this site, turn off your TV and blog sites or wherever you're getting this misinformation from, and make your own decisions.

National Hurricane Center

This. Plus you only have to check it a few times a day vs listening to the 24/7 "we're all gonna die" hype.

[zeehag]

hell i said to all florida they were gonna die and i encouraged a friend in the evac zone to get the lead out of her ass and go to nola.. i saw nola was essentially safe-ish, and well out i=of the path oif impending doom. when i saw the beastie going west i started to get a lil concerned that wee had another katrina. oopsy glad we didnot.
and so i told all who listen to my drivel that they needed to get the flock outta fla. fla was unsafe for anything alive, cat 5 bearing down, prep for cat 5 and survive. no takers. not my fault.
we do what is possible to be doine. those not prepping for doom get the results of same.
it seems to me that if a larger than life malevolent storm is approaching your area, that you would prep or leave or both., yet this seems not to be the case as many were left with pants hanging around ankles as storm removed the possessions. in some cases the possessions that were poorly prepped flew causing grief to others as boats flew on top of homes and other problems arose.
my large unanswered question is why is it with the part time users of boats that these foiks think that leaving an unprepped boat for a hurricane season is a wise move??
your fail is fail also for others who unfortunately reside in the same area. boats cars trees and other large items FLY in high winds. these unprepped items cause injury and death to others.
imagine being in a house and watching someones frikking BOAT fly onto your roof. how the hell do you escape that. obviously the owner of the flying boat gives not one ***** for the resident that was damaged by this flying garbage. once airborne, all becomes garbage including ones self.
there is no need for emergency prep if you practice prep upon departure from boat. prep for cat 5 when you leave your allegedly precious boat behind.

[sailingunity]

I didn't read all of the replies here and I'm sure someone mentioned this already, but the entire state of Florida was in the cone until very near the end. The problem with this storm was only 100 miles difference made a huge difference in the areas affected.

The bermuda high had a huge impact on where it was going to make landfall and forecasters just didn't know how big it would be and how much it was going to affect the storm.

Imagine the hurricane barreling toward south carolina, 100 miles difference is not that much. A change in forecast track doesn't affect too many people. For Florida it was the difference between the entire west coast and the entire east coast.

[denverd0n]

This is the best that science is able to do right now. That's something worth remembering. A lot of people seem to believe nowadays that science has got everything figured out, and if scientists make a prediction -- especially if they create a graphic of it using a computer! -- then it cannot POSSIBLY be anything but 100% accurate.

Not so. Not even close. We know an awful lot. We know WAAAAAY more than we did as recently as 50 years ago. But we don't know everything, and "prediction" is still just another word for somebody's best guess.

[transmitterdan]

^^^^ +1

Everyone should remember denverDon post every time you hear someone express with certainty any prediction about weather more than a few hours in advance. Even then, they can't tell you exactly when/where it will rain or the sun will shine.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

This is the best that science is able to do right now. That's something worth remembering. A lot of people seem to believe nowadays that science has got everything figured out, and if scientists make a prediction -- especially if they create a graphic of it using a computer! -- then it cannot POSSIBLY be anything but 100% accurate.

Not so. Not even close. We know an awful lot. We know WAAAAAY more than we did as recently as 50 years ago. But we don't know everything, and "prediction" is still just another word for somebody's best guess.

i find these most train wreck-esque.
having been the deer in the headlights in 2015 when outside the cone we got a centerpunch with eyeball time. cooool. time to pump bilges hahahahaha
i figger when the nhc shows 110 percent of fla under the purple center of the stuff,l that there is some danger to fla. funny that was shown for a full DAY before key west was a slamdunk. most of fla was included for 2 full days.
i figgered east or west side is irrelevant on a low flat peninsula with water issues. with a 500 mile diameter storm, what is 100 miles. or whatever fla is. tallest things in fla are the buildings.
takes a day and half to drive from jax to nola. whoopee aint far. when the storm in fla extends from east fla to tickling nolas chinny chin, then there is a real storm and where in fla is the bullzeye is irrelevant.
leave your boat prepped for a cat 5 slamdunk and you wont have to worry so much. also protects your neighbors from receiving a bad punt of your boat into their living spaces.

[LEOCAT66]

I remember NASH ROBERTS, in NEW ORLEANS. He always had it right, using only a chalk board and a few well placed barometers, manned in other states and other weather patterns. If Nash said leave, most didn't even take time to turn off the TV.

Old school for sure, but if i had a choice, Nash wins every time.

Some things are better now, but we are more into marketing and ratings than weather. Out of fear of being wrong, we continue to Kick It Up a Notch. We now have more, not much better.