New threat to the Lesser Antilles and surrounding islands

[Exile]

Originally Posted by masonc

There's no such thing as a rational discussion on climate change with the American Government. You have elected the enemy within. Let us know when you recover your senses.

The enemy within has already authorized $15B in relief funds, with much more likely to follow given the astounding estimated costs. That's billions of dollars of wealth redistributed from mostly wealthier American taxpayers who pay a disproportionate share of federal taxes. There will also be billions of dollars in private insurance funds redistributed to pay claims & rebuilding costs from those both affected & unaffected by the storms but who pay premiums nonetheless. And of course there will likely be billions of dollars redistributed to those in need from aid agencies who obtain their funds from those who have sufficient wealth to afford charitable donations.

So a lot of 'wealth redistribution' is already happening with a lot more to come, along with plenty of ongoing opportunities for those who profess concern to put their money where their mouth is (see, for e.g., atoll's link). But no matter what we might think or say, hurricanes & other natural disasters have afflicted mankind from the beginning of time and will continue to do so.

So how about we save the politics and allow this thread to serve as a hopefully helpful resource to those directly affected by these two new storms?

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by atoll

that or re-engineer boat yards ie, masts down and plant the monos in holes with car tires supporting them,don't know what you would do with flying cats though-----water ballast and tie downs on the hard?

You can strap airplanes down and put spoilers on the wings to keep them from flying, I'm sure you could do the same with a boat, although I suspect it's more air getting under a cat as opposed to air flowing over and generating lift

[taxwizz]

Check this website:

https://www.windfinder.com/#5/24.006/-66.401

[Gregster]

cool sit taxwizz

[Bleemus]

In Fiji they dig a hole with a backhoe in higher ground and lower the boat in, pack car tires around it. Never heard of a boat being lost to a typhoon. A few masts were not so lucky.

[navy davy]

Things are finally getting back to normal tropic weather patterns . Several years of calmer hurricane seasons has influenced the uneducated into thinking the current weather patterns are a result of man made global warming ! The earth evolves in cycles and the sun is the influence that matters most . Earthquakes are now being predicted based on sun activities . Every model of earth science is just a guess because no matter how many rings there are on a tree trunk or layers of a core sample taken in the artic ice it never is consistent or accurate . Every study that uses the numbers and data gathered , when reviewed after the prediction of man made warming turn out to be flawed by false data input by the expert .

[AKA-None]

I'd like what you're smoking

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by navy davy

Things are finally getting back to normal tropic weather patterns . Several years of calmer hurricane seasons has influenced the uneducated into thinking the current weather patterns are a result of man made global warming ! The earth evolves in cycles and the sun is the influence that matters most . Earthquakes are now being predicted based on sun activities . Every model of earth science is just a guess because no matter how many rings there are on a tree trunk or layers of a core sample taken in the artic ice it never is consistent or accurate . Every study that uses the numbers and data gathered , when reviewed after the prediction of man made warming turn out to be flawed by false data input by the expert .

In order;

Normal based on whose criteria?

Ahhh, Dunning-Kruger raises it's media-driven ugly head once again. Harvey was weather. Jose is weather. Irma was weather. Even having four Cat 4 or over storms in a single month (as seems likely the case with the addition of Maria), is weather.

But having statistically significant stronger storms, and more of them, worldwide (a prediction of global warming modeling [more accurately, global climate modeling with increased temperature inputs]), over a period of 30+years, is climate (hence the term climate change).

Here's a link to a paper describing the increasing strength and number of Cat 3,4,5 storms worldwide (remember, we're talking global warming), the slight reduction of the number of storms overall worldwide, and the effects of certain atmospheric and oceanic conditions on these metrics. It's interesting to note the publication date is Sept 16, 2005, which of course means that the catastrophic 2005 season, with four cat 5 storms, not to mention 28 named storms, is not even in the counting...

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment | Science





Intensity of hurricanes according to the Saffir-Simpson scale (categories 1 to 5). (A) The total number of category 1 storms (blue curve), the sum of categories 2 and 3 (green), and the sum of categories 4 and 5 (red) in 5-year periods. The bold curve is the maximum hurricane wind speed observed globally (measured in meters per second). The horizontal dashed lines show the 1970–2004 average numbers in each category. (B) Same as (A), except for the percent of the total number of hurricanes in each category class. Dashed lines show average percentages in each category over the 1970–2004 period.




That 'The earth evolves in cycles and the sun is the influence that matters most', is so ambiguous as to be meaningless.


Please provide some solar-based earthquake predictions. While we're waiting, have a look at this site, NASA's space weather page, scroll down to the bottom, count the number of entries under 'earthquakes' or 'geophysical effects on earth's crust' and see how many you find...

Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Or you can have a look at your statement directly, from the USGS, arguably one of the best sources for high quality, practical geophysical information in the world.

https://www2.usgs.gov/blogs/features...e-earthquakes/


If you really believe that 'Every model of earth science is just a guess', (and based on your post there's every reason to suspect that you do...), might I suggest you get down to Guadeloupe or Dominica and experience firsthand the validity, or not, of these 'guesses'.

And finally, since you seem so enamored by this 'false data' hypothesis, how bout supplying some data to back up your claim?

Science doesn't need you to verify (or question) their procedures, data, use of data or conclusions reached; the results speak for themselves. Good scientists are their own harshest critics by necessity; the truth of the matter will come out regardless of what we or they want...

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by atoll

that or re-engineer boat yards ie, masts down and plant the monos in holes with car tires supporting them,don't know what you would do with flying cats though-----water ballast and tie downs on the hard?

Dig two holes...pile some of the dirt on the tramp?

[danielamartindm]

Originally Posted by Exile

The enemy within has already authorized $15B in relief funds, with much more likely to follow given the astounding estimated costs. That's billions of dollars of wealth redistributed from mostly wealthier American taxpayers who pay a disproportionate share of federal taxes. There will also be billions of dollars in private insurance funds redistributed to pay claims & rebuilding costs from those both affected & unaffected by the storms but who pay premiums nonetheless. And of course there will likely be billions of dollars redistributed to those in need from aid agencies who obtain their funds from those who have sufficient wealth to afford charitable donations.

So a lot of 'wealth redistribution' is already happening with a lot more to come, along with plenty of ongoing opportunities for those who profess concern to put their money where their mouth is (see, for e.g., atoll's link). But no matter what we might think or say, hurricanes & other natural disasters have afflicted mankind from the beginning of time and will continue to do so.

So how about we save the politics and allow this thread to serve as a hopefully helpful resource to those directly affected by these two new storms?

I have to say I'd rather see fewer political postings on CF regarding AGW. They are often angry and condescending, and they change nothing. Let's talk weather.

[DeepFrz]

The climate affects us all.

Maria is now a Cat. 2 and set to sweep up the island chain. I wish everyone in her path the best of luck.

[DeepFrz]

Maria now a cat 4. Hang on to your hats folks.

[Bleemus]

I have a good friend living in Montserrat. They are scared what tomorrow will bring.

[DeepFrz]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

I have a good friend living in Montserrat. They are scared what tomorrow will bring.

And well they should be. I wish all people in this storms path the best of luck.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

I have a good friend living in Montserrat. They are scared what tomorrow will bring.

Now Cat 5, but I would suggest your friend be cautiously optimistic, provided he is on Monserrat, given this 8 pm update;

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 61.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent
Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and
approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


The eye is going to pass directly over the center of Dominica, which is 100 miles from Monserrat. The closest hurricane force winds, if the storm stays at its' current radius, will be 75 miles away.

Of course, the hurricane force wind radius can (and likely will) change tomorrow, but at about 10 miles an hour, maybe the speed away from your friend in Monserrat will keep up with (or maybe outrun?) the expanding wind field and they'll only see strong tropical or weak hurricane force winds. (Hence the cautious optimism) There may still be some issues with storm surge, as they're on the bad side of the storm, but they should already be prepared for that...

Certainly hope they make out OK though, whatever happens.