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Old 26-08-2011, 09:13   #1
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Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

My Plan A is to stay in Montauk if Irene makes landfall near Manhattan. That looks to be the case. (Plan B is a mooring off Greak Neck, Plan C is haul-out at Glen Cove. Both of those places look to be under the eye soon.)

So is Montauk far enough away? I'm tucked up next to the shore so there's 200 yards of fetch to the south, 100 yard of fetch to the north. Those are the expected wind directions if Irene passes to the west of Montauk (To the north west is 2 miles of fetch.) Sand bottom and lots of anchors.

Not much wind protection. The land has tiny hills and the island is only 1/2 mile thick at that point.

Any opinions? If Irene, holds course, the only way to improve things would be to head to CT and find a river and go up it. I know very little about CT except for a couple visits to Mystic Seaport.

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Brad
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Old 26-08-2011, 10:24   #2
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

How about a L&L so I can have a look out of interests sake.
Obviously I wouldnt give anyone advice where I know nuffin of the area.
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Old 26-08-2011, 10:39   #3
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

If you face north and the storm is going to pass on your right, you’re probably fine.... Now on the left, you better hang on!
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Old 26-08-2011, 10:44   #4
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

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How about a L&L so I can have a look out of interests sake.
Obviously I wouldnt give anyone advice where I know nuffin of the area.
Sent via PM. (Thanks for the PM!)

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Old 26-08-2011, 11:36   #5
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

Girls, this is a minor hurricane being exploited by the news media to sell some more air time. Prepare like you would for an afternoon thunderstorm.
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Old 26-08-2011, 11:47   #6
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

Looks like big waves and a lot of rain glad I'm on the north west coast where fog is our problem
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Old 26-08-2011, 11:52   #7
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

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Sent via PM. (Thanks for the PM!)

Regards,
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Reply sent. Something like #$%& *&%$ #$%$$#!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I think you're in a good spot.
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Old 26-08-2011, 11:58   #8
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

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Girls, this is a minor hurricane being exploited by the news media to sell some more air time. Prepare like you would for an afternoon thunderstorm.
Hmm, well the National Weather Service, who have an excellent record of hurricane prediction, says this : "Some re-intensification is possible today and Irene is expected to be near the threshold between category two and three as it reaches the North Carolina coast."

Your advice isn't just bad, it's potentially lethal. It's worth remembering that nearly all deaths from hurricanes are caused by drowning from storm surges and flooding. This storm is likely to have a significant storm surge.
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Old 26-08-2011, 12:04   #9
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

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Girls, this is a minor hurricane being exploited by the news media to sell some more air time. Prepare like you would for an afternoon thunderstorm.
Not exactly.

Excerpted from: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely : Weather Underground

“... since Irene is such a huge storm (tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center) it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times the storm surge damage potential will be maximized ...”
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Old 26-08-2011, 12:10   #10
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

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Hmm, well the National Weather Service, who have an excellent record of hurricane prediction, says this : "Some re-intensification is possible today and Irene is expected to be near the threshold between category two and three as it reaches the North Carolina coast."

Your advice isn't just bad, it's potentially lethal. It's worth remembering that nearly all deaths from hurricanes are caused by drowning from storm surges and flooding. This storm is likely to have a significant storm surge.
That should keep everyone on the edge on their seats!!!!!
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Old 26-08-2011, 12:12   #11
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

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Girls, this is a minor hurricane being exploited by the news media to sell some more air time. Prepare like you would for an afternoon thunderstorm.
I don't know your idea of "minor"--but here in BERMUDA, 650 miles east of Hatteras. the cloud is building, and daybreak had one of the reddest skies I've seen in 66yrs.
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Old 26-08-2011, 15:04   #12
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

Well, I am surely glad I am not 100mi offshore.... 25 ft waves...

"100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet. "
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Old 26-08-2011, 15:22   #13
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

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Girls, this is a minor hurricane being exploited by the news media to sell some more air time. Prepare like you would for an afternoon thunderstorm.
If the media is half wrong, and you are half right, it will still be a little more than an afternoon thunderstorm.
If I were you I would take my head out of the sand.
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Old 26-08-2011, 15:24   #14
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

looks like center going thru garden city long island(mid nassau county) like donna and carla did i n the 1960s== will be interesting to see what happens.....for donmna, my youngest brother wanted to go onto roof to see the eye up close and personal.. dont know/remember if he made it out there before dad put a stop to it-----i wouldnt underestimate this bitch-- she could well pack a helluva whollop....even to rhode island.
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Old 26-08-2011, 15:38   #15
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Re: Irene Making Landfall - Is 80 Miles Far Enough Away ?

We were on our way to ME and hauled out in Jamestown RI. It is simply not worth the risk even when fully insured... Let's hope the boats don't tip line dominos... That's been know to happen too.
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