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Old 29-09-2016, 01:24   #1
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Interesting statement from the NHC

There will be very interesting days ahead as Matthew moves toward
the central and western Caribbean Sea, and users are reminded that
the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180
and 240 miles, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 13.9N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 14.3N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.4N 67.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 14.3N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 14.1N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 14.5N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.8N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 20.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
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Old 30-09-2016, 19:13   #2
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

Last I checked it was like at 4 and starting to make its turn. I wouldn't want to be in Kingston right about now.

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Old 30-09-2016, 19:13   #3
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

That is supposed to read Cat 4

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Old 01-10-2016, 00:41   #4
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

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Originally Posted by CareKnot View Post
Last I checked it was like at 4 and starting to make its turn. I wouldn't want to be in Kingston right about now.

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On the current forecast track Kingston'll 'probably' be reasonably OK, the initial, strongest wind will be offshore, followed by a somewhat reduced (by the mountainous terrain of eastern Jamaica) southwesterly wind and storm surge. Ocho Rios, and the entire northeastern coast is going to get slammed.

My concern is for southeastern Florida. If the storm survives the passage over mountainous eastern Cuba, and doesn't accelerate, as appears may be the case, given the latest weather maps, the entire southeast coast (from about 27 south) of Florida could be subject to 2 days of steady, onshore 80-100 knot winds.

Anyone who has any experience with the ability of wind to pile water up on a lee shore should take this (potential) situation very seriously. I hope I'm wrong, but, given the current temperature-induced high water levels in the area, there is the posslbility of this storm being the most expensive non-mainland-US landfalling hurricane on record...
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Old 01-10-2016, 06:36   #5
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

Jim, that is definitely a concern, and yes, I am familiar. I've sailed all over that end of the world when home base was in Dunedin and Largo. Even sailed a 20' open cat to the Bahamas once (emphasis on once). We were much younger then.

From the News section of News & Blogs by Dr. Jeff Masters, et al. at Weather Undergroud (<= link to full article)

Extremely Dangerous Matthew Weakens Slightly to a Strong Category 4 Hurricane; Forecast to Turn Toward Jamaica, Cuba

October 1, 2016

"Major Hurricane Matthew strengthened to a rare Category 5 late Friday evening, before weakening just a bit to a strong Category 4 hurricane overnight. Matthew is the first Category 5 hurricane since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

The storm poses a danger to Jamaica, parts of Hispaņola, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas early next week. Its potential U.S. impact later next week still remains unclear. Impacts are possible in Florida during the middle of next week.
"

It seems to concur to some extent with your analysis, but doesn't acknowledge the 'lee shore' scenario that we both know is a possibility. Perhaps it's just too early for them to start ringing that bell. However, nautical folk have to consider a wider scope of possibilities sooner than the general public. When at sea it isn't always possible for most folks to simply board up and fly away.

I wasn't really surprised that it turned into a Cat 5 or that it started weakening. It will strengthen and weaken repeatedly before this is all over. But I am concerned that it seems to be staying fairly close to it's projected path. I remember all the hand-made Haitian sailboats with trees for masts and natural fiber rope for rigging and not so much as a transistor radio on some and think, the potential for damage and loss of life from this one is substantial.

Let's not forget all those cruisers looking to make their way south to the Caribbean after the SSCA gam in Annapolis this weekend. I suppose there will be more than a few that will be considering an inland waterway mooring as an alternative to the Atlantic seaboard this next week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
On the current forecast track Kingston'll 'probably' be reasonably OK, the initial, strongest wind will be offshore, followed by a somewhat reduced (by the mountainous terrain of eastern Jamaica) southwesterly wind and storm surge. Ocho Rios, and the entire northeastern coast is going to get slammed.

My concern is for southeastern Florida. If the storm survives the passage over mountainous eastern Cuba, and doesn't accelerate, as appears may be the case, given the latest weather maps, the entire southeast coast (from about 27 south) of Florida could be subject to 2 days of steady, onshore 80-100 knot winds.

Anyone who has any experience with the ability of wind to pile water up on a lee shore should take this (potential) situation very seriously. I hope I'm wrong, but, given the current temperature-induced high water levels in the area, there is the posslbility of this storm being the most expensive non-mainland-US landfalling hurricane on record...
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Old 01-10-2016, 07:00   #6
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

Speaking of strange weather scenarios, there seems to be a couple of low pressure areas that are cut off from the jet stream and are meandering south over the next week of so. In Matthew, we have an extremely strong low projected to move north at about the same time. What do you make of this?

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Old 01-10-2016, 07:11   #7
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

be wary of these alleged weakenings as they come before a grand intensification, as was case with patricia before hitting me in isla navidad last year... and odile before slamming baja and la paz. it will gain strength and continue on. anything more than cat 3 feels like cat 7, so prep well. you dont have time, poor florida--make like a cat 7 coming your way.
its path is stilll somewhat uncertain as it is yet unknown as to whether miami is gonna be slammed or sideswiped.
i hope sideswiped as slammed is only 3 days away. good luck miami. and remember surge is a main factor on your side of country.
i would not relax if i were in daytona., either. this could well be an east coast coastline skimmer, which would be kinda a bitch.
oops. sorry but ye know i am correct.
it is already a killercane. 4 dead in venezuelan state of vargas, as of yesterday morning, before intensification. no word since then. i would presume some major damages in colombia, over which this storm rapidly intensified as it sat spinning and torturing locals.
please be safe and prep prep prep. check in after the storm leaves anything behind pix would be loverly.
please be safe.
(an extreme anchoring contest would be appropriate, mebbe even called for as all anchor companies claim theirs is best--lets compare in the way we do best--in a cane of major proportions.)
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Old 01-10-2016, 08:31   #8
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

I'm not trusting the forecast on this one. Notice that in the OPs original post the forecast for 0000 zulu on the first which is 8:00 last evening on the east coast, was 85 mph. In actuality it was 160 mph. If they got it that wrong on the strength, how much can we trust the rest of the models.
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Old 01-10-2016, 08:41   #9
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

This site has further future predictions than any other I could find. http://passageweather.com/
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Old 01-10-2016, 08:49   #10
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
I'm not trusting the forecast on this one. Notice that in the OPs original post the forecast for 0000 zulu on the first which is 8:00 last evening on the east coast, was 85 mph. In actuality it was 160 mph. If they got it that wrong on the strength, how much can we trust the rest of the models.
as the ridges and highs are shifting, even my storm chaser gurus are saying watch the nhc prediction, as that is at present the best path, theirs are exciting and beautiful and entertainment value only at present.
the confusion seems to be where will the ridges and highs push this monster. even the intensity has been mispredicted--nhc doesnt generally show potential for rapid intensification.
there are two potentials--one centerpunching miami--oops that would hurt, and the other shows sideswiping fla and spinning up east coast. both show that,it is merely how and where fla will be affected and how much. .
i root for sideswipe, as it would be better for fla--but, momma nature can be a bitch --practical joker ... and so far, matthew has been no exception. stall off colombia to rapidly intensify, then head for jamaica and cuba, meanwhile exchanging eyewall, early, and apparently weakening, which is a mistake--it will intensify more, as we have seen in past cane activity. how it reacts to hitting jamaica and cuba will be the warning miami gets. not long.
seems the only way to ready for this is presume it is gonna hit as a cat 5, prep for a cat 7, and run like hell out of the area. surge is not your friend. oh yeah--insure NOW,not tomorrow....
you all are already entered involuntarily and gratis in the world championship extreme anchor challenge-- we all need pix and reports please.

and stop scratching your heads--you will waste valuable prep time, especially in fla , where real issue will be where is center hitting and the short prep time.

bewary of passage weather long range--i have found those will not be updated as paths change. storm could well hit 500miles off the prediction. as i have seen happen. direction also is unreliable, especially with this storm, which is defying all norms and rules. it didnt read the handbook .
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Old 01-10-2016, 08:56   #11
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

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Originally Posted by sparrowhawk1 View Post
This site has further future predictions than any other I could find. Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers - PassageWeather
Passage weather uses the GFS model and shows 7 days out while the actual GFS model goes out 10 days. They also offer the NAM model but that only goes out 3 days. www.windyty.com show the entire 10 days of the model and also has the ECMWF model that goes out 7 days. I am in Melbourne Fl at the moment and the GFS model is showing 48 knots here. That is sustained, not gusts. The hurricane force wind are just off the beach and a 10 mile westward error in the forecast will put full hurricane winds on top of us. 10 miles is not much of an error 5 days out.
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Old 01-10-2016, 14:19   #12
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

This is what I got as last day on each site. And the last photo shows that they appear to be very different models
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Old 01-10-2016, 14:31   #13
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

I guess I should have taken more time to see the other options. Thanks
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Old 01-10-2016, 14:56   #14

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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

Considering the number of professional weatherguessers who have said that honestly, they don't know how or why it went from Cat2 to Cat4 so quickly. And, that lately storms just haven't been following the models... This is one to worry about, both from the strength and the uncertainty of path. A "strong Cat4" especially if it was a slow-moving one, would pretty much level Miami Dade and Broward counties, where the building codes only call for Cat2-Cat3, and that's ignoring any storm surge, which would quickly come inland all the way to I95. Not yet probable--but all too easily possible, given the uncertainties. A Cat4 landing anywhere on the east coast is going to overwhelm the infrastructure, no one builds anything except command bunkers to withstand that kind of storm. Making this a good time to go visit Kansas for a couple of days. Or more.
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Old 01-10-2016, 15:30   #15
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Re: Interesting statement from the NHC

Wonder if is too late to head to FL from the Bahamas? We are not there but know many are.
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