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Old 18-10-2011, 12:26   #1
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Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

Well so much for a "record breaking hurricane season".

I can breath a sigh of relief and put away the plywood. But why do they always make the prediction, "this will be a record hurricane year".

1 east coast tropical storm, and a couple of small storms in the Atlantic is nothing like 2005, or 1811.
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Old 18-10-2011, 12:29   #2
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Re: Hurricane season 2011 A bust

Hey, don't complain, it's still not too late. Besides this is like whistling on a boat. Talking about it might bring bad luck and storms.
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Old 18-10-2011, 12:37   #3
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

I agree, why tempt the weather banshee with such talk? And to really answer your question, they do it to try to get the attention of those who don't know enough to pay attention to the season unless there are dire predictions.
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Old 18-10-2011, 12:39   #4
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

As the great philosopher (Yogi) once said...It ain't over till its over.
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Old 18-10-2011, 12:53   #5
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

While waiting for the season to be over, there did seem to be an unusual number of storms that stayed way east of the usual track. Whereas the norm for the Atlantic storms is to come ashore in Florida with a few heading further north and the occasional one tracking over Bermuda, this year, Irene seemed to have the westernmost and a several headed east of Bermuda and up toward Iceland and Britain. Any insights into why this was?
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Old 18-10-2011, 13:00   #6
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

Reminds of how a friend claimed that "hurricanes never hit Fort Pierce" before the epic '05 year. Still I do think the season is over. Cold fronts are coming through. And I was expecting a bad year.
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Old 18-10-2011, 13:13   #7
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

Conditions have been a little different around here (Bermuda) this year.
Water 3 - 4*F cooler, Azores high not centralized over us as in the past, jet stream deeper south of us.
Flew back from JFK in June, normally 2 hrs, did it 1 1/2hrs. Strong winds aloft.
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Old 18-10-2011, 13:36   #8
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

Considering all the small nuances in weather conditions that are required to even create a hurricane, much less control its direction, it's a wonder that any predication would come close to reality.

I for one prefer a pessimistic weather forecast to be proven wrong rather than a forecast for sunny weather to end in a hurricane.
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Old 18-10-2011, 13:39   #9
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Stocking View Post
Conditions have been a little different around here (Bermuda) this year.
Water 3 - 4*F cooler, Azores high not centralized over us as in the past, jet stream deeper south of us.
Flew back from JFK in June, normally 2 hrs, did it 1 1/2hrs. Strong winds aloft.
Effects of underdeveloped Gulf Stream pattern due to BP oil spill?

... or I could be too influenced by the media on making connections where only correlations exist...
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Old 18-10-2011, 14:13   #10
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

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Originally Posted by John A View Post
Considering all the small nuances in weather conditions that are required to even create a hurricane, much less control its direction, it's a wonder that any predication would come close to reality.

I for one prefer a pessimistic weather forecast to be proven wrong rather than a forecast for sunny weather to end in a hurricane.
Exactly.
A Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular region.
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Old 18-10-2011, 14:49   #11
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

Well being on the bad side of Irene was enough for me:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: BACK ON BOARD POST IRENE
Though I was able to find out that my solar Bimini can withstand 70 MPH winds which I guess is a good thing. I did tweak the fellow at the NOAA booth at the Annapolis sailboat show. Telling him I wish they had been wrong about the path of Irene as they were about some of their other forecasts in my area this year. Of course Nor'easter season is about to start even as the Hurricane season is coming to an end. But, I'm hoping to get one more cruise in.
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Old 18-10-2011, 15:31   #12
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Raconteur was dismasted in Wilma on October 23, 2005 so...every time I have that thought (2011=hurricane bust) I then think...not so fast. Fingers crossed for all boats "in the box". Ours is on the hard in Chaguaramas.
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Old 18-10-2011, 18:53   #13
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

Quote:
Originally Posted by capn_billl View Post
Well so much for a "record breaking hurricane season".

I can breath a sigh of relief and put away the plywood. But why do they always make the prediction, "this will be a record hurricane year".

1 east coast tropical storm, and a couple of small storms in the Atlantic is nothing like 2005, or 1811.
So your insurance rates can go up again, silly.
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Old 18-10-2011, 20:08   #14
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

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Originally Posted by Richard Jordan View Post
Reminds of how a friend claimed that "hurricanes never hit Fort Pierce" before the epic '05 year. Still I do think the season is over. Cold fronts are coming through. And I was expecting a bad year.

But on the other hand, the belief around here is that the first two weeks of October are the best time to sail around West Florida. Many people plan to do a Key West run in that window.

But that window had that huge storm where that boat was flipped, and there was another major one between here and Key West today (in fact I think it was yesterday that Key West Airport had a record 6" of rain in 24 hours.)

We were just lucky that so many storms stayed out to sea.
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Old 18-10-2011, 22:38   #15
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Re: Hurricane Season 2011 a Bust

All right, cut it out! All this talk of few hurricanes, now you've caused tornado warnings in Miami tonight!
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