Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 01-10-2016, 08:52   #1
Registered User
 
ErBrown's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Austin TX
Boat: IP 40
Posts: 333
Hurricane Question

OK folks, I have a "what-if" scenario for the group. Let's say you're in the Bahamas and are seeing the forecast for Mathew. For the sake of argument lets say 2 different scenarios, you're in 1) Abacco 2) Exumas. It's Saturday and the storm is 3's days out. Do you find a local hurricane hole and hunker down or make the jump to Florida and hunker down there?

We'll likely stay out of the Hurricane zone for hurricane season when we go but but I find myself wondering "What if" we where back in the Bahamas and that thing was headed our way?
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Hurricane-Mathew.jpg
Views:	164
Size:	397.2 KB
ID:	132084  
__________________

__________________
http://brownigvoyages.blogspot.com (a work in progress)
ErBrown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 09:03   #2
Registered User
 
neilpride's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: in the world
Boat: csy 44 tall rig.
Posts: 2,781
Re: Hurricane Question

Run like hell to FL right now ,, no doubt.... Mathew is a monster ,, Bahamas is no place under any circunstances......
__________________

__________________
neilpride is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 09:04   #3
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 16,804
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Question

florida will be almost as bad if not worse choice at this time. they in miami have a 3 day prep time and still uncertain path for storm/
oops.
hopefully, your insurance pays for storms with names in direct path of storms.
at this point,. your call.
you are way too close to center to plan an escape. watching potential paths--.if cane hole has been successfully tested in a cat 4-5, go for it.
unfortunately i cannot see any bahamian islands without direct hit potential, so i would prolly have gotten to aruba yesterday. puerto rico had i prepped in advance of this wickedness.
best of luck.
anything anyone says can be used against us in the law suit following total disaster.

pps--matthew was a killer before it even became a cane--in vene 4 dead as of yesterday morning in vene state of varga when i lost communication with my friends on margarita island, before it went to colombia and intensified.
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 09:06   #4
Registered User

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Abaco, Bahamas/ Western NC
Boat: Nothing large at the moment
Posts: 774
Re: Hurricane Question

Florida is a far worse choice, too much stuff flying around, closed bridges, unattended boats, ect. Much better off in the Bahamas, get in the mangroves or on a strong protected mooring
__________________
Tingum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 09:49   #5
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2005
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 3,534
Re: Hurricane Question

At least you could probably haul in Fla. Also many more canals to attempt to hide in than in the Bahamas
__________________
Paul L
http://svjeorgia.blogspot.com
Paul L is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 10:01   #6
Registered User
 
thomm225's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Hampton Roads
Boat: 1974 Bristol 27
Posts: 2,737
Re: Hurricane Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul L View Post
At least you could probably haul in Fla. Also many more canals to attempt to hide in than in the Bahamas

Maybe he can haul. Ever seen a boat yard just before a big hurricane? They are packed.

A friend of mine had his boat (a Tayana 37) hauled in 2004 just before cat 3/4 Ivan hit us in Pensacola. That boat which isn't exactly a light weight got knocked off it's stands. It was over near Flora-Bama at a boat yard there.

It was a total loss as he had no insurance. Worse yet he was a liveaboard

I got lucky having two Beach Cats on trailers with only a mast holder broken but they were maybe 1/2 mile inland and behind some trees and the trailers tied down
__________________
thomm225 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 10:03   #7
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 16,804
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Question

i think crossing matty-babys bow is a bad idea unless you are fast. conditions may not be wonderful. might be a lil easier to get eastward some more, but there aint much time, kids. the current predicted path is one of malice to florida boating. allentire full fla coast. all of it. it is too late to relocate very much now-- and provision and hunker and be totally ready. this looks to be threading needle between haiti and jamaica again-- and dead centering over santiago/guantanamo. i got my money on htis route.
east fla is a bad idea as this bitsch is gonna skim coast and wreak havoc with surges and fun stuff canes bring.
as for the anchoring challenge presented involuntarily in an anchorage under this storm, please check in and present photos of the fun and games and how you wont he anchor wars... most important to know how many anchors andwhat kinds andweights you use as well as type rode. want pictures with circles and arrows and paragraphs on the backs.

it is only 3 days out of miami, even at the slow rate of progress.

and i was correct in knowing this bitsch is gonna rapidly intensify once again immediately over bahamas. 2 years ago you guys experienced that from ts to cat 3-- ye didnt like it much. it impressed ye lots, but ye dont remember any more.

floridians--follow the locals--they usually know where places like white city and other storm holes are located.

this will be an interesting and nasty mess.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	145144W5_NL_sm.gif
Views:	143
Size:	30.9 KB
ID:	132086   Click image for larger version

Name:	14492346_1172720642793414_8091440895688464171_n.jpg
Views:	135
Size:	97.8 KB
ID:	132087  

Click image for larger version

Name:	145144.gif
Views:	144
Size:	43.6 KB
ID:	132088  
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 12:20   #8
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2005
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 3,534
Re: Hurricane Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomm225 View Post
Maybe he can haul. Ever seen a boat yard just before a big hurricane? They are packed.

...
If you are going to cruise in the peak of hurricane season you need to do some planning ahead.
__________________
Paul L
http://svjeorgia.blogspot.com
Paul L is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 12:25   #9
Registered User
 
neilpride's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: in the world
Boat: csy 44 tall rig.
Posts: 2,781
Re: Hurricane Question

Without mention that in FL you got a chance of salvage if is doable, in Bahamas the chance is nil or insane expensive ...
__________________
neilpride is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 12:36   #10
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 309
Re: Hurricane Question

As Horace said, "Head West Young Man"
__________________
crabcake is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 13:21   #11
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 16,804
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Question

i am glad this is a hypothetical question.
my answer is to make sure it remains hypothetical.
predictions via satellite and nhc are made reasonably well in advance. this was seen all the way across pond. but then we all sit around with nothing to do until last possible second then gripe because the prediction sed it was going to weaken ha h aha ha ha sorry.
it wont remain weaker for much time.
patricia grew from cat 2 to cat 5 in 5 hours.
odile grew from ts to cat 3 in 5 hours.
that ts last year in bahamas that rapidly intensified into a cat 2 overhead.
the only way to prep for these is to prep for cat 7.
nhc does not seem to anticipate rapid intensification.
if a storm is cat 5 then does an eye wall change maneuver (ERC), it will weaken slightly, but, after that weakening,which is a resting phase, you WILL be seeing another rapid intensification of that storm.
mother natures practical jokes.
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 18:24   #12
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 309
Re: Hurricane Question

This is a compilation of the computer models for Mathew earlier today. The farther out the prognostication, the more room for error in the track. IMHO best to beat it as early as possible, while you still can - especially if you can't run fast and jump high.
Click image for larger version

Name:	14L_gefs_latest.png
Views:	418
Size:	221.3 KB
ID:	132127
__________________
crabcake is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 18:59   #13
Senior Cruiser
 
S/V Antares's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Annapolis, Bahamas
Boat: 1983 Gulfstar 36
Posts: 1,243
Images: 1
Re: Hurricane Question

This "case " is so important as to where you are in the Bahamas. There is very little space at any marina for haul at this last minute.....jam it in the mangroves and goo luck.!
__________________
Will & Muffin
Lucy the dog

"Yes, well.. perhaps some more wine" (Julia Child)
S/V Antares is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 19:20   #14
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Anguilla
Boat: CheoyLee Offshore 33
Posts: 113
Send a message via Skype™ to masonc
Re: Hurricane Question

I've lived in the Leeward Islands for thirty years, my first hurricane was Hugo which destroyed Montserrat where I lived at the time. I've been through so many hurricanes I can't list them any more.
If there is one thing I have learned, do not take the storm information too literally. Storm tracks are estimates based on average predictions. They can be very wrong. If you are in the warning area, make preparations as if you are in the middle of the track. Too many people hesitate for too long, hoping the storm will change track or veer off.
You can always stop preparations when the storm is deemed safe. Don't feel foolish for starting earlier than everyone else, just think of it as practise.
I have seen so many storm tracks be very wrong, especially when predicting the storm will turn. Be safe.
__________________
masonc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2016, 21:43   #15
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 113
Re: Hurricane Question

Kinda curious, why someone in the Bahamas would not go east?

So far the hurricane force winds have a radius of only about 20 - 40 miles from center, although tropical storm winds have a much larger radius.

With the current predictions of an almost due north track, it seems like going east might be safest? As long as you are 80 to 100 miles east of center there should be no problem. Yes, it will initially be a beat on starboard tack, but as the storm approaches 23 or 24 North, a course of due east would be a beam reach. As soon an eastward course becomes close reach, you can motor sail at your fastest point of sail and then just curve around to the south as it passes.

Of course you are gambling that it won't turn east and follow you, but if you're in the Bahamas this time of year, you are already a gambling man anyway, so what the hell?
__________________

__________________
scherzoja is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
hurricane

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Lessons Learned Hurricane Irene- Hurricane Hole Preparation jacob30 Weather | Gear, Reports and Resources 7 21-01-2012 08:51
Hurricane advice links GordMay The Library 2 12-08-2004 08:26
hurricane season in the south pacific? Rdreamz Pacific & South China Sea 4 09-06-2004 09:10
Expect a busy hurricane season GordMay The Library 2 19-05-2004 16:30
Ghost Ships in Hurricane Marty??? bradbarrett General Sailing Forum 8 09-10-2003 10:31


Our Communities

Our communities encompass many different hobbies and interests, but each one is built on friendly, intelligent membership.

» More about our Communities

Automotive Communities

Our Automotive communities encompass many different makes and models. From U.S. domestics to European Saloons.

» More about our Automotive Communities

Marine Communities

Our Marine websites focus on Cruising and Sailing Vessels, including forums and the largest cruising Wiki project on the web today.

» More about our Marine Communities


Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 23:58.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.