Hurricane Question

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

Kinda curious, why someone in the Bahamas would not go east?

So far the hurricane force winds have a radius of only about 20 - 40 miles from center, although tropical storm winds have a much larger radius.

With the current predictions of an almost due north track, it seems like going east might be safest? As long as you are 80 to 100 miles east of center there should be no problem. Yes, it will initially be a beat on starboard tack, but as the storm approaches 23 or 24 North, a course of due east would be a beam reach. As soon an eastward course becomes close reach, you can motor sail at your fastest point of sail and then just curve around to the south as it passes.

Of course you are gambling that it won't turn east and follow you, but if you're in the Bahamas this time of year, you are already a gambling man anyway, so what the hell?

First, hurricane avoidance 101. Avoid the dangerous semicircle which is the right side of the track if you are standing in the eye. You head east the winds of the hurricane as it approaches will be blowing you back into the path. Also the winds are stronger in the dangerous semicircle as the forward speed of the hurricane is added to the speed of the winds.

Also to go east from the Bahamas you would be beating into the trade winds (which will be reinforced by the hurricane winds as it approaches) and not putting as much distance between you and the storm.

Based on the current track and all forecasts if I had been in the Bahamas I would now be headed west, non-stop. Do not pass Go, do not collect $100.

[scherzoja]

Yeah Skip, that does make more sense, to go west. With its current forecast to go up the east side of Bahamas west would be a better idea.

What if it were forecast to cross Cuba and go up the east coast of FL, passing Andros Island to starboard?

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

Yeah Skip, that does make more sense, to go west. With its current forecast to go up the east side of Bahamas west would be a better idea.

What if it were forecast to cross Cuba and go up the east coast of FL, passing Andros Island to starboard?

If trying to run (not always possible or advisable depending on the situation) it would be unwise to try to make general recommendations. That decision would have to be made based on the specifics:

- the storm; forward speed, intensity, track probabilities
- the boat; equipment especially ground tackle, speed, windage, how sturdy, etc
- the location; how good a hurricane hole is available locally, holding (including as mentioned the ground tackle on the boat) where that hole would fall in the storm track.
- where to run; where in the safe vs dangerous semicircle you are, how far, options when you get there, how safe the new location would be if the storm changed course.

I'm sure a number of other questions would occur to me if I was trying to make that decision.

[zeehag]

florida is NOT your safety net. east is where cane has already been.
in this case, east is safe, west is not.
now you are screwed. if you did not leave there when first warnings were with cat 5 bearing down on bahamas, then you are too late.
shoulda left when.......
now you have to make lemonade of old salt limes found in cane path.
to those who did NOT leave when presented with the opportunity, please check in after the mayhem. full reports with pix having circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each pix.
all you can do now is strip your boat, anchor like an oil rig and pray hard to whatever it is you pray to. this WILl befoul your day. guaranteed.
best wishes to you all remaining in bahamas.
i hope it is not as bad as cat 4 usually is.
and no that is not a weakening you feel it is the calm before the storm.
that calm is your last chance to tie all to boat or whtever you tie things to when you be presented with extreme blow job.
i have another thread i labelled extreme watersports event. is a check in for all of you in the danger zone. yes is humorous and yes it has been ignored, but i think it is perfect for checking in post momma natures best shot.
good luck. hold fast.

http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...ns-173562.html

[ErBrown]

Good stuff folks,

I hadn't really been tracking the weather this week, with things being so busy at work and ACL music fest this weekend. So when I looked at NOAA yesterday Saturday morning it was the first I'd seen how much this had intensified into what appears to be a massive storm.

We both really want to get back to the Bahamas next winter and though we plan to stay out of the "hurricane box" during hurricane season, I was still going through the what if's in my head.

My first inclination was that I would have run West to Florida and done my best to find a protected spot as soon as the track was identified 3-4 days out. Depending on where you where in the Bahamas this seemed doable and if you where way down in the chain then you'd have already ID'd a spot to hunker down in.

So that's why I started this thread, just to see if my thinking was flawed and what others who've been doing this much longer would have opted for.

Appreciate all the feedback,
EB

[Jsta_Rebel]

Originally Posted by ErBrown

OK folks, I have a "what-if" scenario for the group. Let's say you're in the Bahamas and are seeing the forecast for Mathew. For the sake of argument lets say 2 different scenarios, you're in 1) Abacco 2) Exumas. It's Saturday and the storm is 3's days out. Do you find a local hurricane hole and hunker down or make the jump to Florida and hunker down there?

We'll likely stay out of the Hurricane zone for hurricane season when we go but but I find myself wondering "What if" we where back in the Bahamas and that thing was headed our way?

I wouldn't go to Florida. I'd head immediately for Sellers Pond in Providenciales, TCI. Once I got there, I'd make my decision based on the weather to set up there or circumnavigate the Mona and head for PR. Florida has it's own set of storm problems. I also rode out Hurricane Ike in Sellers Pond, Provo. It's protected from all sides. I wouldn't haul out there though. It's on the South side, Flat, and no cradles or holes. I'd head to Luperon DR, and set up there with ample time

[barnakiel]

It seems to have passed right over this buoy.

Forecast at Cat 3 at that point, but more like Cat 2 in the readout.

Cheers,
b.

[hpeer]

We WERE planning on going to the Bahamas this winter ending up in Luperon or Ponce. But my Wife Need cell phone coverage for her work, about 10 hrs spread oven3 days a week. It's premature but I'm guessing a lot of cell towers will be down for a while. May need to rethink that plan.

[a64pilot]

I'd say your whole premise is wrong, you don't have three days, you had at least 5 days. I can easily cover 600 miles in five days.
I was watching this thing late last week, if I had been in the Bahamas, I would have beat feet NLT last Friday, Saturday at the worst, after that I don't think running is any longer an option.
Three days out, hunker down and hope to survive.

Buy that stupid big anchor now, you know, the one every body tells you is overkill and just plain stupid .
The Rocna 40 sits nicely on my bow, nests right beside its Brother, a Rocna 25. Is no trouble at all to set or retrieve, the VWC 1500 handles it nicely.

[hpeer]

Good for you on the anchor. We've a Mantus 125lb next to a 66lb Spade. Doesn't feel big at all when it's blowing 55knt gusts and you see others sailing by.

[ErBrown]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I'd say your whole premise is wrong, you don't have three days, you had at least 5 days. I can easily cover 600 miles in five days.
I was watching this thing late last week, if I had been in the Bahamas, I would have beat feet NLT last Friday, Saturday at the worst, after that I don't think running is any longer an option.
Three days out, hunker down and hope to survive.

Buy that stupid big anchor now, you know, the one every body tells you is overkill and just plain stupid .
The Rocna 40 sits nicely on my bow, nests right beside its Brother, a Rocna 25. Is no trouble at all to set or retrieve, the VWC 1500 handles it nicely.

Well that also fits in the parameters of the original question. What else am I missing? Since we're no-where near this thing currently I hadn't been tracking closely. So my original thinking was if by some odd chain of events I was waking up aboard in the Bahamas Sat morning and just saw the update for the first time...what would I do? I'd like to think it would never get that far and I'll always be on top of the weather, but "what if?"

So yes I think running for Florida immediately would have been our plan. If we where in the Abacos again, might have even been able to make it under 7 mile bridge and onto the gulf side in time to add a little more distance.

I'm wondering how things like the fact that as of this AM, coast guard has set condition whisky for most of South Florida change the game? If draw bridges aren't operating then you need to be in place and settled down in advance of that. These are the types of things I'm most curious about, the logisitics of getting moved and into a safe spot with enough time to be...well, safer. things that might not be apparent unless you've been through something similar before.

Oh and we also oversized our Rocna but went with the 33kg, so not quite as large as your newest one, but I think she'll serve

Mariners urged to prepare now for Hurricane Matthew; Coast Guard sets port condition whiskey for South Florida ports

[a64pilot]

Anybody still there in a 40' sailboat is going to have to ride this thing out, in my opinion, too late to run.
Although it may be worth mentioning that I don't remember one going this slow? I pay more attention now of course, but still seems like it's going slow, which I think could make it much worse for whoever gets hit.
There are all kinds of reasons people could get stuck, boats are not always ready to go, things break, so I think anyone needs to have a plan on being equipped to ride one out, something I hope to never have to execute, but I am forming a plan.
I could strip all possible windage off the boat in a day.
What do you do with the dinghy, fill it with rocks somewhere and sink it?


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[masonc]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

What do you do with the dinghy, fill it with rocks somewhere and sink it?

Take it ashore and put it somewhere it won't blow away, preferably indoors.

[zeehag]

i filled my dink 1/4 with water. patricia did the rest. it wont fly away if it is heavy in water.
did same with 2 kayaks. dropped my booms and lashed em to my boat securely, not to cleats, but intrinsic parts of boat. my main was still on boom--lashed within an inch if its lil dropped boom life.
all made it thru 215 mph steady winds with 250 mph gusting. oh but i dont know anything, so donot follow my advice. i am only out here in this stuff every summer x 21 or more named storms per season. h ah ah ah aha h ah a.and i only been studying em since age 8. mebbe 60 u-years., but that is irrelevant.hahahahahahahahaha

[lancelot9898]

The question about what to do with the dinghy......I rode out a cat 1 years ago at anchor on a single 35 lb CQR in a hurricane hole with a inflatable dinghy floating. I filled it with water and it was fine. I was on 80 ft of 3/8 BBB chain and 5/8 inch 3 strand nylon line. You would not believe how that line stretched in the 90 knot gusts...it was how a rubber band would launch a boat. I'll never stay on board again even though after the worse was over we started to drag and was able to reset that little cqr. I can't imagine a cat 2 or higher.