Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 03-06-2015, 13:39   #16
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cowes (Winter), Baltic (Summer) (the boat!); somewhere in the air (me!)
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 19,744
Re: Hurricane Blanca

If you can't make miles upwind against 25 knots, you need a different boat. Trim the sails in hard and motorsail at 25 degrees or so -- works on most boats.
__________________

__________________
Dockhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 13:55   #17
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,770
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Blanca

latitude 38 :


Category 4 Blanca Moves North

June 3, 2015 West Coast of Mexico

After the pounding that the Baja Peninsula took last fall thanks to Hurricane Odile, we can probably all agree that it's somewhere else's turn. Unfortunately, though, a powerful new threat is poised to pounce.


Although stalled roughly 450 miles south of Manzanillo, Hurricane Blanca is currently packing winds of 130 mph making it a Category 4 and is expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours.

NOAA computer models show Blanca passing far offshore of Puerto Vallarta Saturday, and making landfall on the outside of the Baja Peninsula Sunday or Monday. But there is no guarantee, of course, that it will follow the projected track shown above.

Although there are no official hurricane watches in effect today, needless to say, boaters in the Southern Baja region should be making preparations. It's worth noting that during Odile, the worst damage was to boats that were anchored out, rather than in marinas. You can follow Blanca's progress at the NOAA Hurricane Center website.
__________________

zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 14:01   #18
Registered User

Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 57
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Great advice all, glad I connected. As for the headway, the boat does fine under sail: only way it actually moves upwind in 25 knots IS under sail. The engine is tiny - 56 hp, the boat's 47 feet, go figure - I didn't design it.

Just to let you all know, I'm going to try thrashing my way to Turtle Bay, if there's cellular Internet access there, I'll check in with the forum when I arrive. As zeehag said, "go like hell or hunker down," and hunkering down in the advance of that storm scares me.

Sorry, I haven't seen or heard from "Rose of Shannon." There are no marinas in Maria Bay, in fact, there's absolutely nothing but a few shacks on a hill to the north. No other boats, at all. I didn't go into Mag bay, so I don't know if they are there. Let's hope they turn up, safe and sound.

Thanks again, everyone!
__________________
CSailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 14:06   #19
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,770
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morgan Stone View Post
Great advice all, glad I connected. As for the headway, the boat does fine under sail: only way it actually moves upwind in 25 knots IS under sail. The engine is tiny - 56 hp, the boat's 47 feet, go figure - I didn't design it.

Just to let you all know, I'm going to try thrashing my way to Turtle Bay, if there's cellular Internet access there, I'll check in with the forum when I arrive. As zeehag said, "go like hell or hunker down," and hunkering down in the advance of that storm scares me.

Sorry, I haven't seen or heard from "Rose of Shannon." There are no marinas in Maria Bay, in fact, there's absolutely nothing but a few shacks on a hill to the north. No other boats, at all. I didn't go into Mag bay, so I don't know if they are there. Let's hope they turn up, safe and sound.

Thanks again, everyone!
thankyou.
best thing you can do is just as you leave, recheck google wind or windyty sites for wind direction .. google isnt a predictor, just an actualizer. we see many models of weather so it is good to see what is here and now on occasion.
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 14:45   #20
Moderator
 
JPA Cate's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: aboard, cruising in Australia
Boat: Sayer 46' Solent rig sloop
Posts: 10,673
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Morgan,

Go for it. What Zeehag writes about the water temp sounds correct to me, seems like you need water temps around 27 C or 80+ F to sustain a cyclone.

Turtle Bay is wide open to the swell, Cedros might actually be better. Neither is well known for its holding qualities. The tropical storm that's out there will also be affected by the cooling of the water as you claw your way north.

I hope you did some cooking beforehand. The sea state will probably not be conducive to preparing hot meals, unless it's just warm-up food. Keep it simple, and let the boat truck to colder water.

Travel safely.

Ann
__________________
Ann, with Jim, aboard US s/v Insatiable II, in Oz, very long term cruisers
JPA Cate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 14:58   #21
Registered User

Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 57
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Rounding Punta Hughes, north side of opening to Santa Maria Bay - wind is 19 kt from the NW, seas are choppy, breaking over the bow - it's like riding a mechanical bull! Just to let anyone coming this way know. It's not pretty! C U, all
__________________
CSailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 23:07   #22
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 39
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Anyone know if these storms will be pushing anything up to Northern Baja? I'm scheduled to sail from Catalina Island to Ensenada this weekend and wondering If any big swells will be rolling up...


Happy Sailing!
__________________
Happy Sailing!
Mr Big is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 11:28   #23
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Anacortes
Boat: previous - Whitby 42 new - Goldenwave 44
Posts: 1,735
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Morgan, I feel for you. The stress meter would be pegging right now. I just had friends who helped deliver a boat from San Diego to PV and we all were concerned about them running in to some weather. We tried to talk them out of it but the owner was insistent. They made it no problem last week. Would have been very different this week.

The latest this morning says Blanca will weaken and then strengthen before it gets to Cabo (or west of Cabo now). And, it should weaken steadily as it hits cooler and cooler water as it goes farther north. But even a TS can be a dream wrecker depending on where and how the boat lies when it hits.

Not sure why you decided to go this time of year but any others should seriously rethink it if they have plans to go between now and November. The storms this year could be stinkers. If you go plan for places to hide and have the gear to protect you and the boat as best possible. I may be wrong but I think I have heard that the waters well offshore of the Pacific side of Baja are relatively shallow and thus perhaps very dangerous compared to going offshore in deeper waters.
__________________
exMaggieDrum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 12:06   #24
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cowes (Winter), Baltic (Summer) (the boat!); somewhere in the air (me!)
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 19,744
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Quote:
Originally Posted by exMaggieDrum View Post
Morgan, I feel for you. The stress meter would be pegging right now. I just had friends who helped deliver a boat from San Diego to PV and we all were concerned about them running in to some weather. We tried to talk them out of it but the owner was insistent. They made it no problem last week. Would have been very different this week.

The latest this morning says Blanca will weaken and then strengthen before it gets to Cabo (or west of Cabo now). And, it should weaken steadily as it hits cooler and cooler water as it goes farther north. But even a TS can be a dream wrecker depending on where and how the boat lies when it hits.

Not sure why you decided to go this time of year but any others should seriously rethink it if they have plans to go between now and November. The storms this year could be stinkers. If you go plan for places to hide and have the gear to protect you and the boat as best possible. I may be wrong but I think I have heard that the waters well offshore of the Pacific side of Baja are relatively shallow and thus perhaps very dangerous compared to going offshore in deeper waters.
Remember the Bounty and DON'T go offshore to escape a hurricane.

Get the boat into a hurricane hole in some mangroves or up a river, and get yourself well inland. With decent preparation your boat will be fine, and the boat is secondary anyway. Main thing is get you and yours away from the sea. Going down with the ship is idiotic in this day and age.
__________________
Dockhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 12:21   #25
Guy
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: So. Oregon, USA
Boat: Seafarer36c
Posts: 4,308
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Well it sounded like Morgan has chosen to hide in Turtle Bay. Very questionable. It's completly open and there is not a mangrove in 500 miles. I guess he is hoping that the storm peters out before it gets there.
__________________
Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 14:14   #26
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,770
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Blanca

turtle bay is a safe place from cyclonic activities as the surrounding water is waaay toocold for tropical storms and they do no tnormally travel there. is why i suggested it after having watched so many years these storms form and try to kill me her ein mexico. yes i am in mexico. is how i know more about these things here in pacific than does an east coaster sitting on his beach with a cold drink or in his office watching as nhc predicts some action in oiur basin. they form as they slide by my location then slam cabo and baja. i have seen many of these in my 4 years here.
anyone moving boat in pacific ocean in summer should watch for a good weather window.
i would go to cedros island village and sit on the wharf beforei would hang in turtle bay, however, as direction of swella nd surge is deflected from inside the breakwall. isnt a normal cruiser venue, and therefore still a good place to go. i am not refering to the anchorage outside the breakwall, but inside the breakwall for the village.
the bets are for 26 weeks of storm season to have 26 named storms. so far, we down 2 weeks, as the first two weeks, may 15-30 was kinda fail for such a busy to be season.
i have found the only realistic predictions come via storm 2k. passage weather gives a general idea of upcoming weather, eebmike is a local guy in concepcion bay, geary. he is excellent. www.eebmike.com
often when nhc calls for a weakening, it is not correct. i would not count on blanca weakening significantly before cabo is hit. my storm watching guys have real bets on the development of blanca int0 cat 5 before landfall. they are usually pretty accurate.
these were same words that got the folks in la paz into fatal problems with odile.
instead of weakening, odile strengthened off cabo corrientes, aka near me.
blanca has chilled down our hot ocean from over 30 centigrade to under 28 centigrade. is good for us in subsequent storms, as they should be farther out to sea.
i would NOT count on her weakening before landfall, despite what nhc spews. storm 2k folks are true meteorologists who discuss these awesome formations and post current and model pix for folks to learn and grow in their experience. awesome forum with incredible information. they discuss the diffeering models and also discuss reliability of these asorted models, including those from nhc.
google wind is a good site for current wind patterns. look at the pretty formations on the west coast of mexico.
do not sail in em.
you should have a week between storms.

notmany mangroves inmexico--there are some in this lagoon , but most places inmexico are open ocean anchorages with minimal protection, EXCEPT cedros island village and barra de navidad.
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2015, 15:09   #27
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,770
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Blanca

dear mr big:
i presume you donot follow the tracks of canes on a normal basis.
if you look up a sst chart, you will find the water in north baja to be bludi COLD,and wetsuit needed for swimming. just like california--you wont drown before hypothermia sets in. is COLD. named storms want temps that are WARM, therefore, the one only storm that in history of the world part one hit cali(1938? 1888 or something??)--was enormously RARE, and not gonna happen this year or any other year soon.
conditions are not good for canes in north baja. aint gonna happen
now, if you speak of sea of cortez, that lil boat trap gets very warm to hot in summer and canes do go there.
but not on pacific side.
as far north as ensenadaand catalina--hellno. mebbe a foot more swell by that area, but i wouldnt worry much about that.
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2015, 14:30   #28
Moderator
 
JPA Cate's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: aboard, cruising in Australia
Boat: Sayer 46' Solent rig sloop
Posts: 10,673
Re: Hurricane Blanca

Zee,

I'm pretty sure you're lurking there.....Any news of either Morgan or of what Blanca is now predicted to do, two days further on? I am definitely lurking here, wanting them to be safe.

Thanks,

Ann
__________________
Ann, with Jim, aboard US s/v Insatiable II, in Oz, very long term cruisers
JPA Cate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2015, 15:31   #29
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,770
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Blanca

dont know exactly what morgan is doing, i think he went north same as cocokai.. but speakeasy is stuck under where her eyeball is gonna hit him.... oops.... had a problem with his boat. i am watching him n blanca like a hawkeyed mother hen..
cocokai left the same area just a coupla days ago for north....
my area is getting a gentle 15-20 kt breeze for now....havent gotten any rain yet...waiting. hoping for rain as we need ithere badly, and usually only have rain when something with a name comes along

blanca is gonna nail the part of baja on pacific side, a bit north of cabo and slightly south of mag bay
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	download (8).jpg
Views:	153
Size:	198.7 KB
ID:	103255   Click image for larger version

Name:	download (7).jpg
Views:	143
Size:	299.5 KB
ID:	103256  

zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2015, 15:43   #30
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,770
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Hurricane Blanca

windyty forecast mode
the lil black dot is speakeasy, and the x is where i am
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	download (9).jpg
Views:	179
Size:	277.1 KB
ID:	103259  
__________________

zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
hurricane

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
For Sale: Mediterranean Spain Costas Del Sol and Blanca jb.lagrange Classifieds Archive 0 26-03-2015 02:24
Lessons Learned Hurricane Irene- Hurricane Hole Preparation jacob30 Weather | Gear, Reports and Resources 7 21-01-2012 08:51
hurricane season in the south pacific? Rdreamz Pacific & South China Sea 4 09-06-2004 09:10
Expect a busy hurricane season GordMay The Library 2 19-05-2004 16:30
Ghost Ships in Hurricane Marty??? bradbarrett General Sailing Forum 8 09-10-2003 10:31



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:02.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.