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Old 05-09-2016, 06:38   #31
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
there are no warnings for san carlos/guaymas as the winds are expected to diminish significantly by then.
a
I disagree, Zee, but San Carlos is directly under the path, has a Watch issued and will get beaten up to some degree. Yes, the intensity is dropping off and NHC says it will be a Depression by San Carlos.

Its a very good storm for people there to watch extremely carefully.

As you know, Zee, I haven't cruised there so I don't know the area at all and the local circumstances so you know that much better... but the NHC stuff and tropicaltidbits.com don't look happy



Tropical Storm NEWTON

Tropical Storm NEWTON


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Old 05-09-2016, 06:43   #32
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

If docked:

FENDERS, PLENTY OF HUGE FENDERS

Double or triple the lines. Avoid short lines.

Chafe gear on all lines.

Remove sails from furlers. Remove main. Remove stackpack.

Etc.

Walk the dock, make sure your neighbours and all windward boats are secured as well.

Take care.

Let us know your observations when the blow is over.

Cheers,
b.
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Old 05-09-2016, 07:07   #33
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

the chance if 50 kt winds in san carlos are slim as tropical depressions donot pack 50 kts. tropical storms do. as it is to be a td by san carlos, it is safe to bet that san carlos guaymas will be fine.
i have only lived under over 50 of these formations in my 5 yrs here.
patricia was a super fluke..ha ha ha as nothing has hit mexico before that as anything other than a cat 2-3. we had c7.
the unknown here is will this formation rapidly intensifiy into a cat 2 or 3..
so far, no sign of that.


ha ha ha city of mazatlan is totally out of water for the next two days. seems floods overpower the system here with silt in the filters.
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Old 05-09-2016, 07:29   #34
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Z- I hope you are right. I was reading about Odile this morning. No one want a repeat!
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Old 05-09-2016, 07:33   #35
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

how to read warnings from nhc
see the yellow ts warning?? it only goes to topolobompo.
not to guaymas nor san carlos.
see the 50 kt warning graphic?? i thinkyou all are not counting on the spiny ridge of baja mountains that keep our issues to a minimum.
by the time this wannabe gets to san carlos it will be pretty much spent. there will be no 50 mph winds. as predicted it will be a tropical depression by then.
had the op been in cabo san lucas or la paz, there would have been a different story sung.
see where the warnings and alerts are.
looky where san carlos is and guaymas.
tropical depressions pack little wind. they rain like hell, tho. but wind is an on issue by san carlos. oh and btw--it takes around 100mph to blow stuff off other folks boats at you. same coconuts, which are a bigger problem than items from boats near you.

if you have ANY doubt, check eebmike. he has it together for mexico sailing cruisers. Hurricane storm and weather info for La Paz Cabo San Lucas Baja California Mexico Storm, and Hurricane tracking
not wunder, not other sources, but in mexico sources in conception bay, on baja peninsula. he even has webcams. go figger.
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Old 05-09-2016, 08:21   #36
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
how to read warnings from nhc
see the yellow ts warning?? it only goes to topolobompo.
not to guaymas nor san carlos.
And by 8:15 local time, all that has changed.

Now the forecasts are stating 35 - 65 knots reaching San Carlos/Guaymas (depending on the site). Wave height and period will be something to see, if it's safe enough to venture to the coastline. lol

Time to get off the net and start stripping the canvas. We'd rather err on the side of caution. Getting things replaced here is a challenge we'd like to avoid.

We'll keep track of wind speed during the storm and report what we get.

Thanks for the advice everyone!
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Old 05-09-2016, 08:36   #37
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

game change. rapid intensification is a real possibility.
cabo corrientes is our r i area. yup is trying and conditions are right for htis .. that makes it more funner, means i have cane and you have ts coming, mebbe cane depending on how much r i this goes thru. odile made growth from ts to cat 4 in same location as this newton is now.
as this is a huge storm, we will all have the fun. seems passage weather was continuously correct.. ooops......
TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Newton's cloud pattern is characterized by a large mass of very
cold-topped convection, with the center located underneath this
formative central dense overcast on the north side. A ship earlier
reported 50 kt, and although the ship had somewhat of a high bias,
the 12z sounding from Manzanillo reported an 850 mb wind of 65 kt.
A typical wind reduction over the water would suggest about 50 kt
at the surface, and since the sounding supports the ship
observation, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.

The center location of Newton has been difficult to determine, and
hence the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/11. Newton
is currently being steered northwestward on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge over the United States Lower Mississippi Valley.
The cyclone should be drawn north-northwestward and then northward
in 36 to 48 hours between this feature and a trough of low pressure
gradually lifting out over the western United States. The official
NHC track forecast is somewhat faster and slightly to the left of
the previous one and near the multi-model consensus. It lies on
the western side of the guidance, but with only the ECMWF and UKMET
models to the left.

Newton is expected to remain in a very moist environment with
generally light northeasterly shear during the next 24 hours.
These factors, along with the cyclone's passage over sea surface
temperatures above 29 deg C, should allow for steady
intensification until the center reaches the coast. The only
obvious obstacle to strengthening is Newton's broad structure, but
indications are that the cyclone may be in the process of
consolidating. It should be noted that the SHIPS RI Index
indicates a 60-70 percent chance of an intensity increase of around
25 kt during the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now
calls for Newton to become a hurricane prior to landfall, which is
a little above the multi-model consensus. Weakening is likely when
Newton moves across the Baja California peninsula, but little
change in strength is expected as southwesterly shear begins to
increase over the Gulf of California in 36 to 48 hours.

Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California and
northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

Based on the new intensity and track forecasts, the government of
Mexico has made a variety of changes to the watches and warnings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 19.1N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 20.6N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.8N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 25.3N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 28.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z 33.5N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

passage shows an eye and landfall at topolobompo. usually passage has the track dead on. passage also shows main part of storm to east of eyeball... so entire soc will be affected nastily. i ho[e the folks in la paz are ready this time, as opposed to odile.....this WILL affect mazatlan and of course cabo and la paz. entire soc. not just baja...
ready set duck.
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Old 05-09-2016, 08:55   #38
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
No, if you have floating docks you generally have to tie off to them, and allow the dock movement to absorb water level changes. Obviously, the integrity of the floating mechanism connections of the dock to the pilings, the hardware to the dock, and the hardware to your boat should be of highest regard.

clip...
The condo docks (Federica Yacht Club) in St. Simons GA were concrete examples, and for the most part destroyed in Hermine. Many sunk, most damaged if still in the marina...

Check out this member's page (he went to another sheltered location and is fine) for lots of pix, real-time videos, and commentary...

https://www.facebook.com/ken.peckham.3
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Old 05-09-2016, 09:07   #39
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

50 knots is not that bad. as said by others double up the lines, get any extra windage canvas and alike stowed. If the marina is in good condition and pilings are high enough for any predicted surge you will be fine. If the marina is a piece of **** you would be better off on the hook if you have good ground tackle.
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Old 05-09-2016, 09:41   #40
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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50 knots is not that bad..
Now could be 65 knots.
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Old 05-09-2016, 09:48   #41
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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How will the boats on stands do in this?
Our boat is down there. I am a little worried!
Should be ok if the jib is removed and the stands are chained together.
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Old 05-09-2016, 09:53   #42
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

With the center due to pass 50 miles to your west, I'd be most worried about storm surge. On the (currently) projected track and speed, you're due for 10-15 hours of wind that will exacerbate storm surge, given the topography. If you're at La Darsena di Marina Real (I think that's what it's called) with it's westward facing entrance, you may fare better. If you're in the marina at Bahia San Carlos, with it's southward facing entrance, water's going to pile up inside.

The information I see says that Newton is going to be a TS until it goes ashore for the second time. It's a good idea to err on the side of caution...if you're lucky is could still veer to the right and pass to your east.



Wouldn't take any bets on it though...
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Old 05-09-2016, 09:55   #43
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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Now could be 65 knots.
Storms are a crap shoot. I guess it is prepare for the worst hope for the best.
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Old 05-09-2016, 10:00   #44
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Good advice has been given above. Tires make good emergency fenders as they won't pop out of the water as easily as regular dock fenders. (If time, wax your hull just right there, so the black tire smudges come off later.) Small stretchy tires make good line snubbers too. Position your boat and your neighbor's 2 or 3 feet offset, so their masts and rigging won't touch or tangle, in case they pitch and roll in their slip. Beef up all your chafe gear to last through hours of violent jerking, and lash the chafe gear in place so it can't creep out of position. If you're bow into the slip, add a fender at your stern, where another boat adrift might strike it. Prepare your scuppers for wind borne debris. If the dock fingers start to let go, forget the boat just get people ashore quick. That's advice from Marti survivors. After the storm, everyone's throughhull intakes will be vulnerable to debris in the water like leaves and plastic bags. Wishing you well.
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Old 05-09-2016, 10:33   #45
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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Storms are a crap shoot. I guess it is prepare for the worst hope for the best.
The crap shoot ante just got upped to a Hurricane on landfall, then meant to go back to a TS for the next landfall.
Yep, you're right to prepare for the worst and hope for better.

A couple years ago with a TS approaching I was thinking about dropping my genoa but didn't because I didn't want to be embarrassed in front of the other cruisers who had already called me a panic merchant on the VHF that morning. No one else was taking theirs down so I didn't. Then the wind came up and it was too late. Then it turned into Hurricane Gonzalo and 100 boats were lost on the island.
I knew there was something weird about the sat photos of the storm. I knew it was building but my own tremulous ego didn't want to be thought a fool in front of others.

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