change. rapid intensification is a real possibility.
cabo corrientes is our r i area. yup is trying and conditions are right for htis .. that makes it more funner, means i have cane and you have ts coming, mebbe cane depending on how much r i this goes thru. odile made growth from ts to cat 4 in same location as this newton is now.
as this is a huge storm, we will all have the fun. seems passage weather
was continuously correct.. ooops......
TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE
900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016
Newton's cloud pattern is characterized by a large mass of very
cold-topped convection, with the center located underneath this
formative central dense overcast on the north side. A ship earlier
reported 50 kt, and although the ship had somewhat of a high bias,
the 12z sounding from Manzanillo reported an 850 mb wind of 65 kt.
A typical wind reduction over the water
would suggest about 50 kt
at the surface, and since the sounding supports the ship
observation, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.
The center location of Newton has been difficult to determine, and
hence the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/11. Newton
is currently being steered northwestward on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge over the United States Lower Mississippi
The cyclone should be drawn north-northwestward and then northward
in 36 to 48 hours between this feature and a trough of low pressure
gradually lifting out over the western United States. The official
NHC track forecast
is somewhat faster and slightly to the left of
the previous one and near the multi-model consensus. It lies on
the western side of the guidance, but with only the ECMWF and UKMET
models to the left.
Newton is expected to remain in a very moist environment
generally light northeasterly shear during the next 24 hours.
These factors, along with the cyclone's passage
over sea surface
temperatures above 29 deg C, should allow for steady
intensification until the center reaches the coast. The only
obvious obstacle to strengthening is Newton's broad structure, but
indications are that the cyclone may be in the process of
consolidating. It should be noted that the SHIPS RI Index
indicates a 60-70 percent chance of an intensity increase of around
25 kt during the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
calls for Newton to become a hurricane
prior to landfall, which is
a little above the multi-model consensus. Weakening is likely when
Newton moves across the Baja California
peninsula, but little
change in strength is expected as southwesterly shear begins to
increase over the Gulf of California
in 36 to 48 hours.
Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California and
northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts
of Arizona and New Mexico.
Based on the new intensity and track forecasts, the government
Mexico has made a variety of changes to the watches and warnings.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 19.1N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 20.6N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.8N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 25.3N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 28.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z 33.5N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
passage shows an eye and landfall at topolobompo. usually passage has the track dead on. passage also shows main part of storm to east of eyeball... so entire soc will be affected nastily. i ho[e the folks in la paz
are ready this time, as opposed to odile.....this WILL affect mazatlan and of course cabo and la paz. entire soc. not just baja...
ready set duck.