Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

I was looking at www.meteo.nouvellecaledonie, the carte d'analyse, and, to me, it looks like it will take the fairly common route, down between the Loyalties and the southern Vanuatu islands, and head off to the SE. [Look aout, Wallis!] We've certainly watched cyclones follow that route, as extra-tropical cyclones, then just low pressure storms, down to NZ, and beyond. In fact, the cyclone that passed over us was at Raoul Is. on the 15th of May, and it passed s. of Fiji, small, and fast moving. Yup, too early to know where it's going, yet, for sure; and do have your sanctuary planned.

Ann

G'day Ann, good info but I can't get into that NewCal meteo link... says can't find the server and stuff... can you check please?

Sounds like a good link to put on one of the wx threads...

Ping

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

G'day Ann, good info but I can't get into that NewCal meteo link... says can't find the server and stuff... can you check please?

El Ping:

1. The analytical chart is at:

Météo Nouvelle-Calédonie - Carte d'analyse

2. The home page for Meteo New Cal is:

Météo Nouvelle-Calédonie - Accueil

3. The animated satellite image is at"

Météo Nouvelle-Calédonie - Images satellite

4. The local weather radar image of NC Grand Terre plus Loyalties etc is at:

Météo Nouvelle-Calédonie - Images radars

[El Pinguino]

Thanks Alan.... that stuff should go on a sticky somewhere... someone somewhere was looking for SW Pacific info like this just the other day... can't remember where...

[El Pinguino]

And also... my money is on this TC going down through the Kermadecs.....

[Simi 60]

I was informed that the new cal meteo model was not that good and the BOM model produced better results.
Several runs across would indicate this may be true.
I still look at all sources but certainly put more weight on one model more than others, again, based on my relatively short experience

[Lihuedooley77]

We lived on Kauai Island, Hawaii, for ten years, and has several hurricanes marching across the pacific toward the Hawaiian islands.

We all took those warnings seriously, and would prepare every single time.

Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. Same for Tsunamis.

Many times the cyclone ( Hurricane for us ) would down grade to a tropical storm over the colder water, or go north of us, or hit the windshear and tear apart.

But, the memory of Iniki is still with Kauai islanders. It was supposed to go south of our islands, and was doing just that. But, then it did a strong 90 degree turn to the north, and slammed into kauai , dead center hit . Destroyed much of the island and took years to recover.

The advice to stay alert and prepare is good advice. From the images, those isobars are pretty well tight and wound up. Hoping Oma is down graded, and you all we be safe , snugged in, with a glass of Bundy to keep you company,

Cheers

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

G'day Ann, good info but I can't get into that NewCal meteo link... says can't find the server and stuff... can you check please?

Sounds like a good link to put on one of the wx threads...

Ping

Sorry, Ping, I got it wrong. Try this one: Météo Nouvelle-Calédonie - Carte d'analyse

That's for the MSL. There are many sections to the actual site, and the translate function is okay, not bi-lingual, but okay.

Ann

[Alan Mighty]

1. Tropical Cyclone Number 101 issued by Fiji Met Service at 1928 UTC Sunday 17 February 2019 has Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma currently at Category 2 but strengthening to Category 3 at 18 hours UTC on 18 February and still at Category 3 at 18 hours UTC on 20 February as it proceeds to the SW.



2. TropicalStormRisk.com has Oma as a Tropical Storm at 06 UTC 18 February, but strengthening to a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone at 18 UTC on 18 February, maintaining Cat 1 intensity until 18 UTC on 21 Feb when it becomes a Tropical Storm and proceeds to SE towards the N Island of NZ.




3. Bob McDavitt, formerly at MetService NZ and now providing superb yacht routing and weather support to cruisers in the S Pac, says:

TC OMA is expect to slowly drift southwest across NW parts of New Caledonia and then curve southwards into the Tasman Sea. When it reaches 30S I expect it to encounter stronger WNW winds aloft that may knock off its top clouds and start its spin-down, or perhaps shunt the whole system east-southeast across northern NZ—ah well, we need the rain, and the surfers may get some interesting swells. The models still haven’t latched onto this system and are offering different scenarios, and at this stage a wide variety of outcomes are still possible, so get updates.

See more at: https://metbob.wordpress.com/

4. Meteo New Caledonia shows Tropical Cyclone Oma on an analytical surface chart:

[Cliffhanger]

As always, "be prepared but don't be alarmed" Anyone who says they can accurately predict what a cyclone will do is just kidding themselves. My guess (and it is only an educated guess) is that Moreton Bay is likely to get winds around 30kts, possibly get winds around 40kts, unlikely to get anything over 50kts...… of course I could be completely wrong!

[Alan Mighty]

1. Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 104 issued by Met Service Fiji at 0706 UTC Monday 18 February 2019.

(a) satellite image



(b) warning

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 986HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2 SOUTH 163.1 EAST AT 180600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.

CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

(c) Forecast track



(d) Clarification: for those who asked ..

Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre at Nadi, Fiji, is the responsible agency. Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) will issue cyclone warnings if and when Cyclone Oma moves west of 163 degrees E.

2. TropicalStormRisk.com

At 06 UTC on 18 February, tropicalstormrisk.com continued to regard Oma as Tropical Storm. TropicalStormRisk.com forcecast that Oma will intensify to Category 1 but soon after de-intensify a Tropical Storm. Forecast Track:



3. Consider the statement from Bob McDavitt quoted above (in this thread) in post #23.

[Simi 60]

BOM showing a bit of colour over the weekend
Might have to think about going down to "Cowards Corner"
Will wait and see what Thursday brings.

[IslandHopper]

BOM Interactive Weather (hit play)
Interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Maps

Am sitting on the hardstand in Bundy, might have to put a few more tent pegs in...

Big difference between the ECMWF/GFS models on Windy....
https://www.windy.com/?2019-02-23-12...sure,m:cXSako8

[Alan Mighty]

1. Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 109 issued by Met Service Fiji at 1929 UTC Monday 18 February 2019

(a) Forecast Track



(b) STORM WARNING 109 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 181931 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7 SOUTH 162.5 EAST AT 181800 UTC.

POSITION POOR.

REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 162.5E at 181800 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY 191800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.6S 161.9E AT 190600 UTC
AND NEAR 20.4S 161.4E AT 191800 UTC.

(c) Satellite image



2. TropicalStormRisk.com

At 1800 UTC 18 February, the Forecast Track for Oma:

[Alan Mighty]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 111 issued by Fiji Met Service at 0157 UTC Tuesday 19 February 2019

(a) upgraded Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma to Category 3 currently

(b) Forecast Track



(c) Hurricane Warning

HURRICANE WARNING 111 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 190153 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 974HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5 SOUTH 162.5 EAST AT 190000 UTC.

POSITION FAIR.

REPEAT POSITION 19.5S 162.5E at 190000 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS BY 200000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.2S 161.9E AT 191200 UTC
AND NEAR 21.0S 161.3E AT 200000 UTC.

(d) Satellite Image

[Alan Mighty]

MSL analytical chart from Meteo New Caledonia: