Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

[Simi 60]

Bit of weather coming this way

Latest GFS shows the worst on Thursday
BOM access g shows a non event
Windy says we're all gonna die on Monday

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Simi 60

Bit of weather coming this way

Latest GFS shows the worst on Thursday
BOM access g shows a non event
Windy says we're all gonna die on Monday

Still early days, I think Simi.

Tropical Cyclone Oma is rated at Category 1 today, likely to be Category 2 by 19 February.

After that sea surface temperature looks critical, as to whether Oma intensifies or fades back to Cat 1.

Last I looked, Saturday 23 Feb looked to have the strongest winds around Moreton Bay.

You're still in Moreton Bay? I assume you'll move into your favourite cyclone hole.

Are you planning to voyage to SE Asia this winter?

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

Still early days, I think Simi.

Tropical Cyclone Oma is rated at Category 1 today, likely to be Category 2 by 19 February.

After that sea surface temperature looks critical, as to whether Oma intensifies or fades back to Cat 1.

Fiji Met Service now sees Oma developing to Cat 4 by 06 hours UTC on 19 February.

So the situation is changing v fast.


For the latest from Fiji Meteorological Service, see: Fiji Meteorological Service

[Alan Mighty]

Sea Surface Temperatures forecast for 22 Feb suggest that Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma might have difficulty sustaining itself as it approaches the SE QLD coast.

See: IDYOC300 product of Oceanography

[Alan Mighty]

The current run of the GFS and European (ECMWF) numeric models forecasting the track of Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma are quite different after 21-22 Feb.

GFS suggests that Oma runs SE directly (and reasonably quickly) to the North Island of NZ.

ECMWF suggests that Oma shows difficulty sustaining itself after 22 Feb and recurves tightly to the N,

Await the next model run with interest.

We should see if Oma fulfills its historic destiny of transporting tropical heat and moisture towards the pole.

Or if Oma meanders in a merry dance that keeps us all wondering.

[Clivevon]

Just as long as it doesnt hit Townsville. We have relatives there & they have suffered enough for now.

[Alan Mighty]

Warning 97 from Fiji Met Service at 1918 UTC 16 February has downgraded the intensity of Severe Tropical Cyclone Oman. Fiji Met Service now expects Oman to remain at Category 3 from 1918 UTC 16 Feb until 1800 UTC 19 Feb.

See: Fiji Meteorological Service

[philiosophy]

Originally Posted by Simi 60

Bit of weather coming this way

Latest GFS shows the worst on Thursday
BOM access g shows a non event
Windy says we're all gonna die on Monday

Easy there Big Dog. Having been here since early Nov. 2018 I have watched the weather closely from under my rock. Reason being there has been more than usual activity Cyclone wise according local Stralian cruisers. That said B.O.M.’s Sunday morning forecast is for it to stay offshore as it goes by SE Queensland and maybe even goover and trounce my partner’s home country NZ. It sure as do they all bears watching. I thought just this morning with all these fear mongering being scattered around the Upper Burnett River. Maybe just maybe the odds this one does come in and bite us. So I am putting my proverbiable weather hard hat on abiet under my rock and making escape and other emergency plans just in case.

[RaymondR]

Anchored in the Great Sandy Straits off the Kingfisher Resort. It's a bit overcast and there is a very low chop from the south and an occasional gust. Hopefully it will wander down into the Tasman and the sea temperature be low enough to pull it's teeth.

[JPA Cate]

I was looking at www.meteo.nouvellecaledonie, the carte d'analyse, and, to me, it looks like it will take the fairly common route, down between the Loyalties and the southern Vanuatu islands, and head off to the SE. [Look aout, Wallis!] We've certainly watched cyclones follow that route, as extra-tropical cyclones, then just low pressure storms, down to NZ, and beyond. In fact, the cyclone that passed over us was at Raoul Is. on the 15th of May, and it passed s. of Fiji, small, and fast moving. Yup, too early to know where it's going, yet, for sure; and do have your sanctuary planned.

Ann

[Alan Mighty]

Warning 98 from Fiji Meteorological Service issued at 0120 UTC Sunday 17 February 2019:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma is further downgraded to Category 2 and with forecast to remain at Category 2 while it tracks SSW until 00:00 UTC 20 February.

See: Fiji Meteorological Service

[Alan Mighty]

TropicalStormRisk.com has taken for the past few days a pessimistic view of Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma, forecasting that it would only reach Category 2 briefly and then decline to Cat 1 before turning to run S, has updated its forecast of the future track of STC Oma to show Oma turning S by E:

[Simi 60]

BOM Access g for Thursday and Friday.
Previous experience has me preferring BOM over most.

[Simi 60]

Seems they don't like me using their images so here they are again.

Left to right, right to left

[Alan Mighty]

Warning Number 99 issued 0745 UTC Sunday 17 February 2019 from Met Service Fiji continues to show Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma at Category 2 at least until 00:00 UTC 20 February:



TropicalStormRisk.com continues to show Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma losing strength below Cyclone Category 1 strength and becoming a Tropical Storm on 22 February:



The analytical weather map from the Met office of New Caledonia, mentioned above by Ann, shows a goodly selection of weather features, including convergence zones, a warm front, a quasi-stationary front, and a cold front.