Hawaii to West Coast in Jan?

[ryantrollip]

What area did you work when you where active in the Coast Guard?
Any information to add to the discussion?

Originally Posted by Imagineou812

Ya know it doesn't reaLLy bother me when fools perish ( I have pulled a few from the water ) as a result of imprudent choices and decisions , after aLL I am a STRONG proponent of Darwin's theories !!! I DO however take issue when those who recklessly place others lives in peril who are sent to rescue them from their poor planning and judgement !!!

A former U.S. Coast Guardsman
Semper Peratus

[ryantrollip]

waterman
From your observations, how quickly do those systems typically develop at or above SF?

Originally Posted by waterman46

Bay Area resident here, been watching the winter weather reports for offshore and coast many years. You will probably be OK but "probably" would not be good enough for me, personally. If it gets bad out there, it gets very, very bad.

The problem is that you will "probably" be OK, then the next guy who reads about your uneventful winter trip will think it's OK to do the same. Sooner or later the CG will need to risk lives to save someone. It happens regularly out here.

[Chris31415]

Originally Posted by Paul L

This is a truly crazy statement. Your percentages are wildly high. Even if they were near correct, the weather as you approach land would be a crap shoot that time of year.

Do a search on Kalarin on this site. They were within 180 miles of finishing an east-about circumnavigation with the last leg being Hawaii to the Straits of Juan de Fuca when a low caught them and they took helo ride to shore.

The thread is “Loss of KELAERIN Rescue of Crew June 2018”.

The thread says the helicopter had ~1 minute of fuel left when they landed. A lot of lives were put at risk.

[bongo]

I've sailed from LA/SF/Seattle to/from Hawaii over 100times, on big container ships. The passage is 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 days. We're regularly HAMMERED on winter passages. And not just on the west coast, but at times, even most of the way to Hawaii. When a 750 ft ship with 40-50 ft of freeboard is taking green water over the deck and being tossed around like a toy, I don't want to be on any boat, much less a multihull.
Sailing sailboats prudently does not follow "your" schedule. One has to be flexible and uses the best data and knowledge based upon others' experience. Do yourself a favor and get a copy of Jimmy Cornell's "World Cruising Routes". Talk to other sailors, (as you are here), but be open minded and LISTEN to them. If you proceed with this winter passage, you are a fool. If you absolutely need to get the boat to the west coast this winter, perhaps a Matson RO-RO can ship it back.

[ryantrollip]

bongo, thanks for the input
What difference was observed steaming between SF-Hawaii vs LA-Hawaii?
I have a copy of "World Cruising Routes", thanks.

Originally Posted by bongo

I've sailed from LA/SF/Seattle to/from Hawaii over 100times, on big container ships. The passage is 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 days. We're regularly HAMMERED on winter passages. And not just on the west coast, but at times, even most of the way to Hawaii. When a 750 ft ship with 40-50 ft of freeboard is taking green water over the deck and being tossed around like a toy, I don't want to be on any boat, much less a multihull.
Sailing sailboats prudently does not follow "your" schedule. One has to be flexible and uses the best data and knowledge based upon others' experience. Do yourself a favor and get a copy of Jimmy Cornell's "World Cruising Routes". Talk to other sailors, (as you are here), but be open minded and LISTEN to them. If you proceed with this winter passage, you are a fool. If you absolutely need to get the boat to the west coast this winter, perhaps a Matson RO-RO can ship it back.

[Brewgyver]

Ryan, you haven't mentioned crew...

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by ryantrollip

waterman
From your observations, how quickly do those systems typically develop at or above SF?

I think I understand what you're trying to "wiggle through" here...but it makes no sense. No two weather patterns are identical. No two seasons are, either. Have you looked at a chart to see how FAR it is from SF to Alaska? THAT'S where the lows come from!

I am more aware of these distances since I sailed up from SF to BC in 2016 in AUGUST after spending 1978-2016 in SF, and been boating in SF since 1983 on my own boats, 21 years with this one. I used to go out into the ocean in calmer weather periods during the winter to learn how to sail in rougher conditions. The entrance to SF may be the worst part of the trip! We were holed up in Fort Bragg for a week in that trip due to SCAs. In August, the calmest part of the year for a trip north!


Your "rationales" are wearing thin. This is a manifestly hazardous trip, in ANY small yacht.


Please heed the good advice to not do so.

[Junglebike]

Originally Posted by Brewgyver

Ryan, you haven't mentioned crew...

[ryantrollip]

Are you volunteering?

Originally Posted by Brewgyver

Ryan, you haven't mentioned crew...

[ryantrollip]

>I understand what you're trying to "wiggle through"
Not trying to do anything at this point except learn from others knowledge and experiences.

>The entrance to SF may be the worst part of the trip!
So I'm starting to understand. Seems a more southerly route is a safer option. e.g. to San Diego, question is if it's too risky

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

I think I understand what you're trying to "wiggle through" here...but it makes no sense. No two weather patterns are identical. No two seasons are, either. Have you looked at a chart to see how FAR it is from SF to Alaska? THAT'S where the lows come from!

I am more aware of these distances since I sailed up from SF to BC in 2016 in AUGUST after spending 1978-2016 in SF, and been boating in SF since 1983 on my own boats, 21 years with this one. I used to go out into the ocean in calmer weather periods during the winter to learn how to sail in rougher conditions. The entrance to SF may be the worst part of the trip! We were holed up in Fort Bragg for a week in that trip due to SCAs. In August, the calmest part of the year for a trip north!


Your "rationales" are wearing thin. This is a manifestly hazardous trip, in ANY small yacht.


Please heed the good advice to not do so.

[Halien]

It sounds like you may be talking yourself into a bad idea.

I have a lot of ocean miles under my belt, but let my judgment lapse a few years ago. We left in early October to deliver a 32 foot monohull from Honolulu to Washington. The boat went down a couple of weeks later, in the middle of the ocean, and we ended up on a container ship headed for Panama. We are incredibly lucky to be alive. Incredibly, miraculously lucky, and that's only because we were experienced and well prepared.

A couple of things to consider:

First, winds in the high 20s and 30s, gusting up to about forty, are one thing. That's normal heavy weather. Sustained winds in the high 30s gusting into the 50s and up are another. I don't know the math, but the difference is mighty to behold. Just incredible. Now consider that you may be in those conditions for days at a time. The noise along will drive you crazy. Imagining and preparing for these conditions while planning a passage bears no relation to being in them with no relief in the forecast.

Second, seven meter and larger waves are common in North Pacific Winter waters. Wave height reports are averages. Count on a regular number of waves being significantly larger. If you have weather coming from different directions, reported wave heights and periods are only rough guides. Weather comes across from Japan up there, and down from Alaska. It's a mess for anyone, and potentially lethal for someone planning a trip with no prior experience of these conditions. If you do have this experience, I beg your pardon, but I’m guessing you don’t, or you would not be here looking for input. Again, thinking about and preparing for dangerous seas bears no relation whatsoever to being in them. Honestly, when waves top 30 feet, and start combining and breaking, and last for days on end, you’re going to start hoping for a quick death. I did. It was that bad after several days.

Winter in the North Pacific is no place to be. The shipping line that picked us out of the water doesn't even let its vessels go above a certain latitude in winter. Think about that for a minute. The great circle route for most passages from Asia takes commercial ships pretty far north, and they'd rather burn the extra fuel to stay away from the Winter zone than risk it and save some money.

Skip Allen lost his boat about ten years ago, and he was close to the coast. When all that wave energy with its long fetch hits the continental shelf, you get a mess like few others. Here's a link to his story:

Abandoning ship: gut-wrenching, perilous, sometimes right

If you go, I wish you the best, but I hope we don’t read about you in the shipping news. You might be just fine, but I, having experienced a typical North Pacific Winter, will never buck the odds again. Whoever told you to put the boat on a Matson boat had the best idea yet. They do this all the time. When you’re in the water, taking your last breaths, and the sea is folding over you like a shroud, do you really want your last thought to be “I should’ve just paid Matson to deliver the boat”?

Good luck.

[ryantrollip]

Halien, sounds like you had an awful experience, glad you made it through.
Sounds brutal up there. Thanks for sharing

Originally Posted by Halien

It sounds like you may be talking yourself into a bad idea.

I have a lot of ocean miles under my belt, but let my judgment lapse a few years ago. We left in early October to deliver a 32 foot monohull from Honolulu to Washington. The boat went down a couple of weeks later, in the middle of the ocean, and we ended up on a container ship headed for Panama. We are incredibly lucky to be alive. Incredibly, miraculously lucky, and that's only because we were experienced and well prepared.

A couple of things to consider:

First, winds in the high 20s and 30s, gusting up to about forty, are one thing. That's normal heavy weather. Sustained winds in the high 30s gusting into the 50s and up are another. I don't know the math, but the difference is mighty to behold. Just incredible. Now consider that you may be in those conditions for days at a time. The noise along will drive you crazy. Imagining and preparing for these conditions while planning a passage bears no relation to being in them with no relief in the forecast.

Second, seven meter and larger waves are common in North Pacific Winter waters. Wave height reports are averages. Count on a regular number of waves being significantly larger. If you have weather coming from different directions, reported wave heights and periods are only rough guides. Weather comes across from Japan up there, and down from Alaska. It's a mess for anyone, and potentially lethal for someone planning a trip with no prior experience of these conditions. If you do have this experience, I beg your pardon, but I’m guessing you don’t, or you would not be here looking for input. Again, thinking about and preparing for dangerous seas bears no relation whatsoever to being in them. Honestly, when waves top 30 feet, and start combining and breaking, and last for days on end, you’re going to start hoping for a quick death. I did. It was that bad after several days.

Winter in the North Pacific is no place to be. The shipping line that picked us out of the water doesn't even let its vessels go above a certain latitude in winter. Think about that for a minute. The great circle route for most passages from Asia takes commercial ships pretty far north, and they'd rather burn the extra fuel to stay away from the Winter zone than risk it and save some money.

Skip Allen lost his boat about ten years ago, and he was close to the coast. When all that wave energy with its long fetch hits the continental shelf, you get a mess like few others. Here's a link to his story:

Abandoning ship: gut-wrenching, perilous, sometimes right

If you go, I wish you the best, but I hope we don’t read about you in the shipping news. You might be just fine, but I, having experienced a typical North Pacific Winter, will never buck the odds again. Whoever told you to put the boat on a Matson boat had the best idea yet. They do this all the time. When you’re in the water, taking your last breaths, and the sea is folding over you like a shroud, do you really want your last thought to be “I should’ve just paid Matson to deliver the boat”?

Good luck.

[01kiwijohn]

Weather Routing, hmm. Anchored in Kaneohe, we saw a beat up 45 footer come back in in, after a 2 day battering. Their expensive weather router gave them a 5 day "good" window. Be skeptical.

[SteveSadler]

I've sailed that passage 5 times in august, september, once in October. The first 5 were rough but ok. Octobers was challenging. Gale after gale, rain, 60 kts huge seas. Pitchpoling conditions, towing a drouge, always survival mode. That was the last delivery I ever did. But January? You're putting your boat, yourself your crew, and your rescuers at serious risk, for what?

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by ryantrollip

>>
So I'm starting to understand. Seems a more southerly route is a safer option. e.g. to San Diego, question is if it's too risky

You should take another gander at the BIG weather picture.

My experience in SF (1970-2016) weather-wise, is that when a winter front moves through the Bay Area, the winds are from the south. What this means is the "bottom" southern part of a low, which could be either local or stretch all the way from Alaska, is coming over the western coast. Whether these are stationary or quickly moving fronts have part to do with the strength and location of inland higher pressure.

What this means in your "strategy" is that there will no way to know how big or how long lasting these conditions may last.

And that once you get close to the coast, the winter winds could well be on your nose if you are heading south from 48N or anywhere near that latitude.


Oh, once you get down to LA and SD, winter has thesr SANTA ANNA winds. They blow TO THE WEST. Part of the reason for the So Cal wildfires every f-ing year!!!


Part of that is your dubious reasoning about weather planning.

In SF because of the "Mediterranean" patterns, we KNEW that it most likely wouldn't rain between April and November, and that November to March it could/would. Winter was very fickle.

Since I've moved here, with all the Big Country between here and Alaska, everyone I know who knows anything about weather (we're mostly sailors, how'd ya guess?) KNOWS that any forecast beyond THREE DAYS is very questionable. EVEN IN THE SUMMER. Not to take anything away from the met services of all kinds, but the VAST AREA over which the weather moves over the ocean is inherently unpredictable that far out - models and all. I've now lived here for three & 1/2 years.

You're foolish if you think you can "rationalize" those odds.

Halien, didn't just have an awful experience, he was explaining a GOOD day!