Many of the El Nino indices and forecasting models are predicting an El Nino year for this Summer and Fall/Winter of 2014. Does anyone know if 2014 turns out to be an El Nino year, could it effect the 2015 south pacific
cruising season? I'm currently planning to make the pacific puddle jump
in spring 2015, likely sticking to the coconut milk run, but have heard that that the pacific trades can weaken and sometimes reverse in an El Nino year. So far my research
has only come up with forecast
and discussions for the 2014 season, but I'm curious if El Nino ever effects two seasons in a row.
Does anyone have first hand experience with the pacific during previous El Nino years?
Any feedback or additional sources of information on the topic would be greatly appreciated.
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion