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Old 16-06-2014, 18:30   #1
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El Nino effect on 2015 South Pacific Cruising Season

Many of the El Nino indices and forecasting models are predicting an El Nino year for this Summer and Fall/Winter of 2014. Does anyone know if 2014 turns out to be an El Nino year, could it effect the 2015 south pacific cruising season? I'm currently planning to make the pacific puddle jump in spring 2015, likely sticking to the coconut milk run, but have heard that that the pacific trades can weaken and sometimes reverse in an El Nino year. So far my research has only come up with forecast and discussions for the 2014 season, but I'm curious if El Nino ever effects two seasons in a row.

Does anyone have first hand experience with the pacific during previous El Nino years?


Any feedback or additional sources of information on the topic would be greatly appreciated.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
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Old 17-06-2014, 08:48   #2
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Re: El Nino effect on 2015 South Pacific Cruising Season

In reading through the FAQ's section of NOAA's site I found this bit of information on the frequency and average time periods of El Nino events:

"How long do El Niņo and La Niņa typically last?

El Niņo typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Niņa typically lasts 1-3 years. They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity during December-April, and then weaken during May-July. However, prolonged El Niņo episodes have lasted 2 years and even as long as 3-4 years."


Climate Prediction Center - ENSO FAQ
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Old 17-06-2014, 10:10   #3
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Re: El Nino effect on 2015 South Pacific Cruising Season

I went across the South Pacific twice--once in an el Nino year. I had too much wind, too little wind, just right wind, rain, sunny days, wind the wrong direction, cyclone threats--both times. I had a fantastic trip--both times!
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Old 17-06-2014, 12:37   #4
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Re: El Nino effect on 2015 South Pacific Cruising Season

Thanks for putting it in perspective! Actually getting out there, regardless of conditions is probably better than the arm chair cruising we're currently doing.
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Old 17-06-2014, 12:45   #5
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pirate Re: El Nino effect on 2015 South Pacific Cruising Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by Helios View Post
Thanks for putting it in perspective! Actually getting out there, regardless of conditions is probably better than the arm chair cruising we're currently doing.
And the Sun rises...
Go and deal with it.. all this El + & - is bollocks.. it won't kill you unless your totally not ready for it like some who've gone before..
But if you FU.. its grand to have something to blame..
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