Dorian

[real_goat]

You shouldn’t “trust” a model, but the ECMWF has a better track record and is more advanced.

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/...18-upgrade.pdf

[MicHughV]

I have my own theory about hurricanes and the east coast of Florida....but that is besides the point today....
Floridians must be extremely grateful that they were given an 11th hour reprieve from this storm.
I have a long history with hurricanes and have had the pleasure of working with many people that are " experts" in this field, and until you have personally been thru' one, it
is almost impossible to grasp the incredible and unrelenting power of a 'cane.

The Abaco's certainly seem to be in the target zone. I can imagine places like Nipper's on Guana Cay are going to have an oceanside view of this storm, albeit holding on to a rum drink while doing so. ( with one hand only, as the other hand will be required to hang on to something...anything !)

People are focused on " wind speed" but the true power of a hurricane is in " wind force". Wind force goes up as the square of wind speed, so only a few miles per hour difference in wind speed can double the wind force.

Then off course, comes the ocean, like a straw sucking up a pepsi....the 'hurricane sucks up the ocean...and underneath the 'cane can be a " dome" of water of many feet.
When the 'cane hits land, this " dome" of water continues on...
All told, not too much an individual can do.

In the case of a Cat 4-5, there is nothing an individual can do, not even hanging on, as
there will be nothing left to hang onto!

I think that the NHC gives one the best possible scenario of a probable outcome. They have access to all the tools and computer models, sat data, etc....they even have a plane flying into a ' cane to ascertain a variety of data.
Bless those pilots and technicians, I for one, would not " volunteer" to fly thru' a hurricane under any condition or enticement.

I'm sure that the NHC is aware that their observations and predictions will affect the lives of many.

Kudo's to the men and women at the NHC !!! They are unsung hero's doing an incredible difficult job.

Instead of arguing about which model is better, we should be lining up to buy these folks a drink.

[contrail]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

I have my own theory about hurricanes and the east coast of Florida....but that is besides the point today....
Floridians must be extremely grateful that they were given an 11th hour reprieve from this storm.
I have a long history with hurricanes and have had the pleasure of working with many people that are " experts" in this field, and until you have personally been thru' one, it
is almost impossible to grasp the incredible and unrelenting power of a 'cane.

The Abaco's certainly seem to be in the target zone. I can imagine places like Nipper's on Guana Cay are going to have an oceanside view of this storm, albeit holding on to a rum drink while doing so. ( with one hand only, as the other hand will be required to hang on to something...anything !)

People are focused on " wind speed" but the true power of a hurricane is in " wind force". Wind force goes up as the square of wind speed, so only a few miles per hour difference in wind speed can double the wind force.

Then off course, comes the ocean, like a straw sucking up a pepsi....the 'hurricane sucks up the ocean...and underneath the 'cane can be a " dome" of water of many feet.
When the 'cane hits land, this " dome" of water continues on...
All told, not too much an individual can do.

In the case of a Cat 4-5, there is nothing an individual can do, not even hanging on, as
there will be nothing left to hang onto!

I think that the NHC gives one the best possible scenario of a probable outcome. They have access to all the tools and computer models, sat data, etc....they even have a plane flying into a ' cane to ascertain a variety of data.
Bless those pilots and technicians, I for one, would not " volunteer" to fly thru' a hurricane under any condition or enticement.

I'm sure that the NHC is aware that their observations and predictions will affect the lives of many.

Kudo's to the men and women at the NHC !!! They are unsung hero's doing an incredible difficult job.

Instead of arguing about which model is better, we should be lining up to buy these folks a drink.

Agreed, but since we are talking models, the facts are that the Euro has performed best over a considerable period of time, the GFS second best and the UKMet third. Efforts have been made to improve the GFS, after its Sandy debacle, but it's still second. In the case of Sandy, the GFS, and consequently the NHC, caught its sharp turn toward NJ only in the final hours, while the Euro had been touting it for quite awhile. The result was considerable soul searching at the NHC. By the way, the art of forecasting lies in the human element whereby different models are emphasized over others, in different storms.

[MicHughV]

...I don't dispute that the Euro has had a stellar track record as far as predictions go, and even with Dorian, it was suggesting a northern-nor'eastern track, long before the NHC changed direction.
I went to bed last night, thinking that the track could swing north after seeing the Euro prediction, and and lo and behold, woke up to a pleasant surprise.

But, as you well know, by seeing the so-called " spaghetti " models, that there is a slew of models and data to chose from.

The NHC also has access to all these models...and tries to weed thru' all of them besides their own data collection system as they typically are the " final" word, right or wrong.

I'm usually very happy when I see a NHC track and the Euro track coincide, or nearly coincide, as that gives me confidence the the NHC projected track has merit.. As you say, there is still a " human" element at play here and I'm grateful that we have the NHC.
But like a football coach, some are better than others, and when you have a bunch of coaches on the field trying to find common ground becomes the challenge.

Fluid and weather dynamics is an interesting field. It's not possible to " pinpoint" with any great accuracy any likely outcome days in advance, so we get the NHC " best guess".
This is why we have the so-called ever widening" cone", which can often be many miles across.

The best one can hope for is a good " estimation" and the NHC typically gives us that, ie, their best estimation...especially days out.

Off course, hours before any intended landfall, anybody can give a good estimation, but by and large, I want to know, days in advance, if possible, whether or not I need to start packing my bags,

[S/V Illusion]

Models are the same category of scientific guesswork from which we get all the climate change hype.


Thus far, the weather forecasts have called for devastation first in florida and then Georgia, NC and Sc and who knows where they will hyperventilate about next creating panic among the public. The 'predictable' (pun intended) result will be many people will ignore the warning in the future if they ever get it right.


Computer models produce pretty graphic scientific guesswork which seems almost believable. Too bad it isn't any more or less correct than the local weather guy in Galveston had it a century ago.

[Palarran]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Is this what you want to see:


Good luck,
b.

Not really. I can't make heads or tails of the Euro model but at this point it doesn't matter anymore. Thank god for insurance because without it I'd REALLY be freaking out.

[GordMay]

From the NHC (Sept. 1, 8:00 AM Update):
EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

[barnakiel]

Somehow, the model that is BETTER failed to predict this.


So much for what is better, hunches and spreading misinformation.


927mb at center and feeding on the seaward wall of the Stream.


Next 36 hours will be most entertaining to watch, except to people in N Bahamas.


barnakiel

[barnakiel]

Just approaching the Bahamas you can watch now the gradient on the sensors before they get swept off.



I think it looks extremely bad with the system moving slow and winds in excess of 90kts for about 12 hours for the spots there. Small land mass not enough to break the feeding process.


How does shallow water affect a hurricane?


barnakiel

[barnakiel]

A snippet from 2012 events, partly addressing my question:


" ... TCHPs above 90 kilojoules per square centimetre are associated with very rapid intensification of hurricanes, Potter says. But offshore from Houston, a survey conducted only two weeks before Harvey’s arrival showed that while the waters were very warm, their shallow depth limited their total heat energy. The TCHP was only 36, well below the alarm threshold. But despite the relatively low level, when Harvey moved into this region, it intensified rapidly

Why this happened, Potter says, isn’t fully clear, but it’s an indication that the metric may not work in shallow waters...."


source: https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/h...-more-bad-news


Life is full of wonder. Now Cat 5 and intesifying.



b.

[Palarran]

The webcam's I was watching in the Abaco's have now went down. The one on Grand Bahama is still working and shows a nice beautiful morning. Calm before the storm. I hope Palarran survives this as it would be an unfitting way for her to go.

[Kivalo]

I flew to SW Florida a few days ago to babysit a yacht. The owner is 80 years old and needed help moving it to a safe location. Thankfully this area is likely to be spared according to the latest forecast models.

[jmh2002]

Compare 3 models here, as well as the Satellite view, etc:

https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tra....997,-79.728,6

[boatpoker]

to hell with models .... Marsh Harbour live stream.
It's started folks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ruh...Ose2ptozOcFbfE

[GordMay]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES