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Old 08-05-2015, 10:03   #1
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Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

There doesn't seem to be much discussion on current weather systems on CF and although it's not the place for mariners to be checking weather, maybe the occasional heads up and discussion will help. I know it will help me to understand what is normal, what can be expected and how to understand forecasts, gribs, synoptic charts etc.
I'll start with the following storm warning I just received via email.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080505
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Ana, located about 170 miles south-southeast of
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This was an automatic email alert, you can subscribe here Free Hurricane Alert Email Notification Unaltered NOAA National Hurricane Center Data Feeds

Here's the 24hr synoptic chart for the area. This and others are available here Radiofax Charts - New Orleans

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Grib files and txt forecasts and warnings are also available on the NOAA link listed above. For gribs I like to use weather4d on the iPad, or zygrib on the laptop. I find gribs useful but they really only tell half the story and with no data input from humans as to the location of fronts and troughs etc they're not enough to rely on as a sole means of weather forecasting or explanation of current weather.
If anyone has any additional links to add or summary of the current weather situation, in particular TS Ana, any input would be greatly appreciated.
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Old 09-05-2015, 22:04   #2
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

Maybe weather is too boring?
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Old 10-05-2015, 00:04   #3
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

Not when you are in it!
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Old 10-05-2015, 03:30   #4
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

it is cloudy and overcast here
and I really want to take out my windows to reseal them........
advice please
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Old 10-05-2015, 06:49   #5
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

It is quite early for a tropical system... hope it is not a harbinger!
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Old 10-05-2015, 07:07   #6
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

for those in mx i follow eebmike. sometimes he is a little slow to put out the beginning of an event. our season starts friday. whoot...... so far, so good, which can be scary, as this is a super el nino year..lol per noaa.....passage throws out the possibilities before other sites.
eeb mike shows the tropical waves before they are coupled with the events creating our named storms, and i follow em thru from birth to hit.
google wind along with passage and eeb mike, and added storm 2k in 'cane season, starting friday, will be my staples.
happy cane season, all.. be safe out here
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Old 10-05-2015, 07:15   #7
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

Quote:
Originally Posted by atoll View Post
it is cloudy and overcast here
and I really want to take out my windows to reseal them........
advice please
Looking out of the existing windows if you can see the hills, then it's going to rain. If you can't see the hills then it is raining.

You have about 10 days before Monte's sub tropical depression hits us, you should be alright.
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Old 10-05-2015, 07:19   #8
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

tarp it atoll...... with a good sturdy tarp..
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Old 10-05-2015, 07:22   #9
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

He will need more than a tarp on Thursday if Passage Weather is correct.

Pete
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Old 10-05-2015, 08:01   #10
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

And should the Azores high be so confuced by all the lows at this time of year?

If I read the statictics right it shold be stronger by now, right?
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Old 10-05-2015, 08:53   #11
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

I think over the next few weeks drummer. Last year it was pretty well established late May and lasted till early August, but still some lows can come down and squash it occasionally in that period, sending SW up the Portuguese coast and Biscay. Not fun but definitely more settled than it is now.
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Old 10-05-2015, 09:44   #12
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

Quote:
Originally Posted by drummer81 View Post
And should the Azores high be so confuced by all the lows at this time of year?

If I read the statictics right it shold be stronger by now, right?
It "should not". It is still very early. Maybe around end of May it will get more established.

Statistics are just that. Take ten years where the center was at 1000 half of the time and 1010 the other half of the time. Now statistically the center was at 1005. At which it had newer been.

Also: AZORES HIGH. PLS look at any big ocean (Pacific South, Indian South) where you can see more than one oscillation at a time. Fast forward and notice the flow (the roll-over and substitution of High systems traveling West to East) Then look back at Atlantic North. You will see that part of the time we have two oscillations, part of the time one, part of the time "none". Now think about the other oceans. Now imagine the whole thing in NA is continuously moving on EASTWATRDS. Look to the left when the High is weak: what do you see there? A new High rolling over from the America? Fine! A batch of Lows and fronts rolling in? Not so fine!!! THE ONLY WX CONSTANT IS ITS CONSTANT CHANGE.

The re is no "Azores High". Booom. ;-)

Yep, it's been a long trip.

Wx seems superboring to maybe 99% of sailors and I am having much more fun talking to farmers, pilots and climbers.

Still, like any other subject, once you get into it, it becomes a whole new world full of discoveries, riddles and intricacies.

Have fun,
b.
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Old 10-05-2015, 10:02   #13
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

See pictured Azores Low. Not mentioned in monthly statistics nor anchored in cruiser's vocabulary.

The artefact to its left is the rolling in High. I often call it just the new High. The important thing is the situation beyond this one and we know thanks to the OP that there is a nasty TD/TS there which implies very high probability of a low pressure trough rolling in next. A deep trough may completely suck up the High.

REMEMBER we often make the error of visualising only the horizontal vector of the flow. Remember there is also a verical component feeding and or (depending on where you stand) sucking up the (becoming) less prominent system.

It is 6th grade stuff. Too bad we have long forgotten.

credits:
- NOAA radiofax,
- http://www.wfmz.com/image/view/-/183...sure-2-jpg.jpg
- http://mrwalkerweb.weebly.com/upload.../147199855.jpg

Cheers,
b.
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Old 10-05-2015, 10:17   #14
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

Thanks Nick. Good explanation and pics. Keep the grade 6 explanations coming, I need all the help I can get! Wow that's an incredibly long cold front on the synoptic chart.
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Old 10-05-2015, 10:39   #15
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Re: Current weather warnings - tropical storms etc

Yes. At times you can see them from Ireland to Florida ;-) And at other times the High oscillation is "everywhere". You can catch a fine ride from Canary Islands to Barbados in half the time one needs in November...

The on-the-water importance of the long front varies between locations. Some areas will have typical nasty front features (dramatic wind shift, bands of continuous rain, etc.). Some other areas of the same front will have just some scattered tall clouds with associated electrical storms and rain only under the cloud. I call them tails as I have seen where they ended twice. There is a big hole without wind below (S of) them.

The bottom end of the fronts swipes very deep into the surrounding higher pressure and it is most notable at the beginning of each voyage out. When you understand how the wind will change and how to abuse it, you can ride the tails maybe half the way from Caribbean to the Azores. And then you must either hit it North or else snail it the last 1000 miles or thereabout. But all this is later maybe end of May and definitely possible throughout June.

For now it is what it is, we have our first TS at about the average time they will crop up. Nothings looks much different from 2012/13/14.

Cheers,
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