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Old 18-01-2019, 05:55   #1
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Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

I am not sure how widely this has been discussed here already but I think it might be interesting to think about what cruisers have to expect if the world does not manage to tackle climate change.
I am thinking about
- changing weather patterns
- less reliable weather forecasts
- more extreme storm
- dead zone
- dying reefs
- increased poverty in coastal regions
etc.

From my point of view we should be clear about what to expect if we all don't manage to solve this global problem.

What are your ideas about this?
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Old 18-01-2019, 06:07   #2
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

The topic has been discussed here ad nauseam with each thread eventually being closed due to bickering and political discourse. Climate change is a politics/religion issue.

Do a site search and see for yourself.

"What to expect?" Answer: More bickering, arguing and insults.

Maybe the "Marble Machine" will solve the problem.....
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Old 18-01-2019, 07:21   #3
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

A book that is readable and provides some helpful insight and a good synopsis of the science and political offshoots is THE MADHOUSE EFFECT. Myocean's list of impacts is a good start for legitimate discussion (in a different forum unfortunately). I would drop the issue of inaccurate weather forecasts, though. Forecasts are actually improving. There are predictions rather than observations, so they will never be prefect. Remember 20 years ago when they had no idea where a hurricane would head?

As stated above, this is not a good forum for a non-emotional discussion of the issue. It quickly has evolved into political science in the past.
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Old 18-01-2019, 07:27   #4
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Climate change is not weather.
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Old 18-01-2019, 07:29   #5
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

This could be a useful thread.

The question posed is how would changing weather patterns and changes to marine ecology affect what we use to make decisions about where to sail, when to depart, and what preparation or gear might be needed.

The problem with past threads is that some folks have interjected their beliefs of what is or is not occurring.

The questions asked by the OP are centered on what to expect if climate change is not managed and the changes that are explained in the scientific world come to fruition.

This question was not whether or not climate change religious or political. Those discussions can be taken to another thread.

It will be very interesting to understand how changing weather patterns will affect forecast predictions, pilot charts revisions, economic changes in areas where we cruise, changes in migratory patterns of marine life, changes in insect populations that are disease vectors, changes in rainfall patterns that affect freshwater supplies (for those of us without water makers).

If one wants to debate whether or not climate change is occurring or what is causing it, open another thread.

In this thread, stick to the questions posed by the OP and in the context that Climate Change is occurring and is changing according the the analyses of the IPCC and the National Climate Assessment.

https://www.ipcc.ch/
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
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Old 18-01-2019, 07:31   #6
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Climate Change = Brexit for consensus..
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Old 18-01-2019, 07:35   #7
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Climate change has been observed continually for centuries. Actually, for millennia. Nothing new about it.
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Old 18-01-2019, 07:38   #8
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Here’s a useful observation: I expect our boat to float on top of the water no matter what the sea level happens to be.
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Old 18-01-2019, 07:50   #9
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Those “scientists” think they know everything.

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Old 18-01-2019, 07:54   #10
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenomac View Post
Climate change is a politics/religion issue.
Climate change is a prediction/warning from the subject-matter experts, that's slowly proving to be correct, for the most part.

As a policy issue... yes it's been usurped and loaded up by both sides in the debate. The result is mostly a stalemate.

How will CC affect "cruising life"?
  1. The majority of cruisers reading this now will not be around to see the most significant effects of warming.
  2. The majority of people who are able to cruise are in the subset of the world's people who are always least-harmed by calamity.
In other words, climate change will not significantly alter cruising life, unless economic hardships caused by CC are finally felt in the affluent countries as well. Otherwise, some cruising destinations may become too risky because of political or economic instability.

Quote:
Maybe the "Marble Machine" will solve the problem.....
Watching that would certainly be more productive than redoing the CC debate here.
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Old 18-01-2019, 08:05   #11
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

myocean, thanks for posting this but as you have already seen you wont get much useful discussion about climate change here.

Contrary to what has already been posted cruisers worldwide are already being affected by the stronger and longer lasting storms caused by climate change. The weather is less predictable and patterns are changing.

Increased poverty and damage to popular cruising destinations are going to make these places less desirable and more dangerous to visit.
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Old 18-01-2019, 08:08   #12
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Quote:
Originally Posted by scherzoja View Post
It will be very interesting to understand how changing weather patterns will affect forecast predictions, pilot charts revisions, economic changes in areas where we cruise, changes in migratory patterns of marine life, changes in insect populations that are disease vectors, changes in rainfall patterns that affect freshwater supplies (for those of us without water makers).
Thank you, I think that is exactly what I meant. And, as even Trump meanwhile agreed that the change does happen (adding that is does not make sense to reduce emissions or so), I think there is a good base for this kind of discussion.

Let's assume the scientists are right with the statements that this change is happening much, much more rapid (lets say within the next 20-40 years) than all the massive changes in the last million of years.
So, for cruisers there are some massive changes to expect while a lot of the cruising life relies on weather patterns and nautical conditions which have not changed a lot during the recent 300 years.
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Old 18-01-2019, 08:18   #13
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Kenomac, the Marble Machine is really great! Thank you!

Regarding the weather I wonder how safely we will cross the Atlantic in future if the tradewinds are not blowing as usual, hurricanes do happen when there is no hurricane season and the gulf stream has toppled.
We are cruising with kids and this question is actually about what they can or can not do when they are grown up.
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Old 18-01-2019, 08:20   #14
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

Simple, do what sailors have been doing since the beginning of time.

Adapt and keep sailing.

Hell, I adapt to the weather everyday!
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Old 18-01-2019, 08:32   #15
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Re: Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

The UN has a website on Climate Change that you might be interested in. Here is a link to one of their reports.

https://unfccc.int/news/climate-chan...-says-pentagon
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