Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

[Dave_S]

Originally Posted by Valmika

Climate change maybe will alter trade winds, currents, etc. If the ocean level increases I would be able to get into harbors I can't get into now. Who is to say the new directions and winds won't be better for some area than the old ones. The point is before we had all the cool weather predictions sailors just handled the hand they were dealt. When something changes for the worse one place it may change for the better somewhere else. The changes should be gradual and manageable (by the sailing community). I guess worse case we will go extinct but the earth will survive. It always has.

^^^ This I think is close.

Climate change always has been, good or bad, we have to adapt but I think we have lots of time.

The greatest evidence for me and I think largely undisputed, is the ice core samples of the last 800,000 years show heating and cooling cycles and we are just in the natural cycle. I believe we should be doing our best to minimize our footprint but I don't believe we are having the impact some say we are having.

I don't think there will be major changes in our lifetime, so not much to see here. Minimize your footprint and worry about what you can fix.

[rsn48]

Wind patterns are changing along coastal BC and I"m sure the Pacific North West. Recently when driving back from Victoria BC to my home in Qualicum Beach, I drove through a rain of tree "stuff." We've all seen stuff from trees come down on the road, this was different. In my entire life, I've never seen what I saw just roughly a month ago. At one point, the road was covered with debris, no road to be seen. Walking my dog latter in the off leash dog trails here, at some points I lost track of a well worn trail the tree litter was so profound, I couldn't find the trail. Driving home was like driving through heavy hail, except it was tree debris.

Seriously, how many have seen that? I've lived along the coast since 1973. Thirty five years ago, about an eye lash blink in terms of planetary time, the ocean came up on a very high king tide but was combined with a bad wind storm. I like to walk to the beach with some wine in hand, sit down and watch the Alaska cruise ships go by at roughly 8:00 PM in the evening. Homes are built along the beach, I would say only a few feet above sea level here. Most of the home owners along this shore understand their home is doomed sooner rather than latter.

The house I live in is roughly 20 feet above sea level, the problem is the shore line is soft earth, held in place by plants. The house is also about 8 houses away from the beach line at highest tide. I like to joke and tell my friends that eventually I'll have an ocean view as rising water eats away at the existing shore line. Something like this happened in Michigan in the South Haven area roughly 40 years ago (don't hold me to that estimate). A friend's father - a United Church of Christ minister - bought his cottage, a home built on sand, we used to tease him about that given the biblical admonition about homes on sand. And sure enough, his cottage disappeared.

[Seagirt]

Originally Posted by jen1722terry

The year-end issue of Scientific American has an excellent article on what's going on with the ice at both poles. The gist is that major changes world-wide may not be by the end of the century or even mid-century, but within the next 10 years. Also, local effects of climate change can vary widely.

Jenn and I have noticed something at our waterfront home in Nova Scotia (we're Yanks who live in Canada half of each year). The float on our wharf is attached to the main wharf by a long ramp which allows the float to rise up/down with the tides. In our 15 years in the house, we've never seen the float rise above the level of the main wharf. This fall was different in that we saw two occasions where the float rose significantly above the wharf level (about a foot). What can that mean?

Just one data point. Food for thought, if nothing else.

Cheers!

Terry and Jenn

I've noticed this a few times when strong winds push in a surge of water that will elevate the tide higher than normal. It happened last month and coincided with one of the high tides of the cycle and resulted floats of docks sitting higher than the walkway leading to them and in the water level topping a retaining wall that normally stays dry. So not exactly ocean levels rising due to polar ice caps melting but possibly the frequency of this occuring will increase with onset of more severe storms, and increased severity of those storms, than we have experienced in the past. Imagine if we lived in the San Blas islands or some of the other low lying places on earth that can't retreat a few steps backwards.

I suppose the opposite of this could happen, where winds push the waters away to another location and when it occurs with a low tide could actually ground ships (is ground the correct word here? is there an app to teach marine vocabulary?). Anyone aware of this occuring?

[eroc]

It was not hard to anticipate the level of discourse on this topic and my contribution will be simply what we have already experienced both inland and on Canada's Pacific coast.
We live on a broad flood plain in a small town south of Calgary, the heart of Canada's oil patch where acceptance of climate science change is akin to heresy punishable by social ostracism, where the oil industry funded "scientists" to attack the lead author on modeling for the IPCC who sued for libel ( and won)and now leads the Green party in BC, a very effective opponent to continued oil sands expansion.
In 2013 our community of High River was devastated, with 90% of all homes destroyed or damaged and abandoned for weeks or months, as were portions of Calgary including many of the energy industry office towers by flood volumes 2-1/2 times the expected 1/100 year volumes which we recently have been experiencing within 10 yr intervals. Despite ongoing extensive modeling work in which climate change was not factored in, the communities were totally unprepared. When a recently installed upstream flow station went over the top and stopped transmitting, those in charge sat around scratching their heads ,gave no warnings and lives were lost.
As a follower of climate science and a skeptic of those who say nothing unusual is happening( same guys who told is cigarettes were safe- google "merchants of doubt) we were better prepared with an easily installed flood barriers , pumping capacity and back up power. We kept pumps running for 14 hrs and had minimal damage to our home. We are preparing for worst to come.
Our annual trip to the west coast Salish sea , where we share a sailboat, was less than pleasant with smoke from hundreds of forest fires in B C making driving less than a pleasure, of 7 days on the water we only had one day with visibility over 1/2 mile and were sometimes running with radar in broad daylight. It wasn't fun and I can't imagine how it might have been for those with respiratory issues. How can you plan for that other that expect that the old rules no longer apply and try to be more flexible and adaptable.

[PEACEMAKER 455]

Has anyone looked at Grand Solar Minimum? It to is a cycle will hit us this year the sun spots have died down to a level we have not seen this will put us into a mini ice age lasting 300 years add to this the magnetic polar flip that is starting to happen now . Looks like we should live every day like our last?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by PEACEMAKER 455

Has anyone looked at Grand Solar Minimum? It to is a cycle will hit us this year the sun spots have died down to a level we have not seen this will put us into a mini ice age lasting 300 years.

Perhaps. Perhaps not.

[Ken Pole]

As a long-time sailor as well as co-publisher/editor of an environmental policy and law newsletter for nearly 30 yrs, I continue to be amazed at climate change doubters and deniers. Maybe our grandchildren will be able to drop anchor at what once was Mar-A-Lago! LOL!! That said, check this out:

How fast are the oceans warming? | Science

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Ken Pole

As a long-time sailor as well as co-publisher/editor of an environmental policy and law newsletter for nearly 30 yrs, I continue to be amazed at climate change doubters and deniers. Maybe our grandchildren will be able to drop anchor at what once was Mar-A-Lago! LOL!! That said, check this out:

How fast are the oceans warming? | Science

I’ve been around for 60 years, and there’s no denying that the sea levels of the western USA, North Eastern USA and the Mediterranean are exactly where they were 60 years ago. The same high water mark.

Where is all the melting ice water going? ‘Ever wonder about that?

And after another 60 years, I have no doubt that the high water mark will still be exactly where it is today give or take a couple of centimeters.

Just like the marble machine, you wind it up, the debate goes around and around..... the tune repeats over and over.... nothing changes.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IvUU8j...&start_radio=1

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by jen1722terry

In our 15 years in the house, we've never seen the float rise above the level of the main wharf. This fall was different in that we saw two occasions where the float rose significantly above the wharf level (about a foot). What can that mean?

Just one data point.

What does it mean? It means you’ve not been paying attention!

New England and north has already seen substantial sea level rise over the past 25 years. Halifax and other coastal cities are already developing plans to address various scenarios, based on predicted sea level rise associated with various warming levels

[Seagirt]

To get back to the OP questions. Since my cruising is currently local BC it is somewhat dictated by local weather, what salmon and tuna are doing, and time constraints within my schedule. These three things are, to some degree, influenced by climate but I don't have any well formed beliefs on climate's effects. If weather becomes more difficult to forecast then my sailing will probably become more conservative and less risky to compensate. If salmon/tuna migration timing or routes change I will respond to that accordingly.

My sailing world is pretty small right now and limited to two week periods but climate change, whether human induced or natural, still affects me. We can all answer the OP by stating what are expectations of climate will be in the future without debating what other people's belief's are.

[rsn48]

Our annual trip to the west coast Salish sea , where we share a sailboat, was less than pleasant with smoke from hundreds of forest fires in B C making driving less than a pleasure, of 7 days on the water we only had one day with visibility over 1/2 mile and were sometimes running with radar in broad daylight.

About a month ago when discussing radar in a thread and whether it was still necessary (yeah, I know, lets not rehash that) I discussed needing radar to get through the forest fire smoke. Now you've seen me talk about it, now the above quote from another.

Now most forums, whether model railroad, cycling, motorcycles, boats, what have you are all the same, topics recycle continually, nature of the beast. But I've been a member here since 2005 and show me another thread or post that discusses the need for radar through forest fire smoke since 2005 here.

I had a friend contact me, living in the interior of British Columbia (translation: in forest fire territory) tell me this summer is expected to be another bad one, or even worse than last year.

My one recommendation here: if you're living in certain areas of California, get out.

[mud bug]

Whatever you believe about climate change, human caused or not doesn't matter. Get over it and Go sailing. The climate is not and never has been static, period. The world has been both tropical and frozen, and everything in between for long periods of time before human life existed. We cannot change that. Read Chicken Little.

[250224]

Originally Posted by myocean

think about what cruisers have to expect if the world does not manage to tackle climate change. I am thinking about
- changing weather patterns
- less reliable weather forecasts
- more extreme storm
- dead zone
- dying reefs
- increased poverty in coastal regions
etc.

From my point of view we should be clear about what to expect if we all don't manage to solve this global problem.

What are your ideas about this?

Don't think we can 'be clear' about what to expect. Certainly it is not politics/religion as the usual suspect has claimed but science. But science based on models with parameters and much complexity/uncertainty (thus also a bit a sloppy affair).

Imho, it's not possible to make forecasts about what you wonder, e.g. weather patterns. Some things, poverty in coastal regions, are influenced by many causes like religion/over-population/stupidity. But in any case I do think we (incl. your children) will just adapt to the given circumstances.

Longterm, thousands of years, it probably doesn't look to good for some regions, e.g. the Netherlands. Cannot imagine that a sea level raised by 57 m could be managed. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN1P82CL). (And after the Brexit it will be difficult to 'just take the ferry'...)

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Seagirt

We can all answer the OP by stating what are expectations of climate will be in the future without debating what other people's belief's are.

^^^^^^^

Exactly. Ideas can be discussed & exchanged based on facts & opinions, or "Likes" & "Thanks" can be achieved based on labeling & stereotypes.

[jmschmidt]

Here is what I ask people who are into "man-made global warming", "climate change" or whatever the no-nothings are calling it this week.

If all the ice in the Arctic Ocean along with the entire Ross Ice Shelf
in Antarctica (about the size of France and 100 feet high above sea-level and several hundreds of feet below sea-level) melted at once, how high would sea levels rise?

I get answer of between two and twenty feet. This question should be easy for anyone with a displacement-hull boat.

The answer, of course, is zero. (said Archimedes: Died 212 BC, Syracuse, Italy)

The old Greek said that all that ice is already floating and displacing the exact same amount of water by weight as the ice weighs. Perhaps some of that water resulting from the melting would drift north, warm and expand slightly but massive sea-level rise is not in the cards.

If 100% of the ice on solid land in Antarctica and Greenland melted at once (and it never snowed again in those regions) that would effect sea-levels but nobody can agree as to how much. But that is not likely until the Sun becomes a Supernova, in which cast the global warming wackos will really have something to worry about.