Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 24-05-2019, 04:39   #1
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 35,005
Images: 240
2019 Hurricane Season

NOAA predicts near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season
For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
A weak El Nino and cool Atlantic waters are 2 limiting factors this year.
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/n...rricane-season


NOAA predicts above-normal 2019 hurricane season in the central Pacific
For the season as a whole, 5 to 8 tropical cyclones are predicted for the central Pacific hurricane basin. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A near-normal season has four to five tropical cyclones, and an above-normal season has six or more tropical cyclones.
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/n...entral-pacific


Colorado State University Forecast of 2019 Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity
Information obtained through March 2019 indicates that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity slightly below the 1981-2010 average.
We estimate that 2019 will have about 5 hurricanes (average is 6.4), 13 named storms (average is 12.1), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes(average is 2.7). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 90 percent of the long-period average.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media...04/2019-04.pdf


AccuWeather released its hurricane forecast for the upcoming season Wednesday, predicting that 12-14 named storms would form, of which five to seven will be hurricanes. The firm said two to four are likely to hit the USA.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...ecast/70007852

Subtropical Depression Andrea , the first named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, marked the fifth consecutive year with a named storm in the Atlantic basin, before the official start of the season.
Prior to 2002, subtropical storms were not given names.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...953.shtml?cone

More stories from NOAAhttps://www.noaa.gov/
__________________

__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-05-2019, 04:47   #2
Don't ask if you can't handle it
 
sailorboy1's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: On the boat somewhere
Boat: Hunter 410
Posts: 14,774
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

That must be right!!!!

Afterall it comes from the weather forecasting people
__________________

__________________
jobless, houseless, clueless, living on a boat and cruising around somewhere
sailorboy1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-05-2019, 05:06   #3
Moderator
 
a64pilot's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Albany Ga.
Boat: Island Packet 38
Posts: 24,674
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

There is still plenty of time for them to change their forecast.
Didn’t they do that last year?
a64pilot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-05-2019, 05:32   #4
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 18,505
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

noaas preseason predictions are same as earthquake predictions. unreliable and shakey.
so far in epac they have not been able to recognize a potential formation. they have become quite the circus.
the only good thing on central pacific predictions is the formations created on mexicoast will not kill us, they will shower and blow dry our hawaiian friends.
however, they are still batting a negative 1000 here.
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-05-2019, 05:47   #5
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 35,005
Images: 240
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
There is still plenty of time for them to change their forecast.
Didn’t they do that last year?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2019 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.

Colorado State forecasters will update their predictions three times over the next few months, on June 4, July 2, and Aug. 6.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-05-2019, 07:08   #6
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 35,005
Images: 240
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season





The NOAA outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated "likely" ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast has a 70% probability for each range.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, storm genesis locations and steering patterns; which are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 03:17   #7
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Slidell, La.
Boat: Morgan Classic 33
Posts: 1,703
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by GordMay View Post




The NOAA outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated "likely" ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast has a 70% probability for each range.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, storm genesis locations and steering patterns; which are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.
After my first coupla decades dealing with hurricanes, I started to realize that of the various predictions, the seasonal forecast was the one with the least practical utility for individuals; the 2004 and 2005 seasons only solidified that conviction.

One bad storm can have plenty of ill effect if you're where it makes landfall...

I tend to focus on the remarkably steady improvement NOAA has shown in predicting track and, to a lesser extent, intensity, and hope that this success might eventually extend to seasonal predictions.

Though, given the current administrations' lack of ability to administrate almost anything, certainly neither emergency preparedness nor disaster relief (I have several friends with stories of the criminal 'distribution' of Puerto Rican relief goods) the advantage of knowing beforehand the severity of the season seems relatively moot...
jimbunyard is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 03:44   #8
Marine Service Provider
 
Snore's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Boat: Tartan 33 and OPB
Posts: 2,370
Send a message via Skype™ to Snore
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

I agree with Jim!

My definitions have not changed since Andrew. A bad hurricane season is one when I get hit. A good season is when some other poor SOB gets hit. Anyone who lives in Florida understands- nothing personal, just better for the storm to hit somewhere else.
__________________
"Whenever...it requires a strong moral principle to prevent me from deliberately stepping into the street, and methodically knocking people's hats off- then, I account it high time to get to sea..." Ismael -a link to my delivery website is in my profile—
Snore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 04:04   #9
Senior Cruiser
 
skipmac's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: 29° 49.16’ N 82° 25.82’ W
Boat: Pearson 422
Posts: 13,872
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Good time to put in a plug for NASA and the US space program. Tax money spent on NASA is often criticized as a big waste and could be better used on the ground.

But when you look at the lives saved and the reduced property damage from better hurricane prep allowed by better tracking I think arguably the space program more than pays for itself.

Add GPS and technology spinoffs from NASA the program seems like a really good deal.
__________________
The water is always bluer on the other side of the ocean.

Sometimes it's necessary to state the obvious for the benefit of the oblivious.

Rust is the poor man's Loctite.
skipmac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 04:58   #10
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 35,005
Images: 240
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

My thanks to jimbunyard, Snore, & skipmac.
To each of your contributions, I say: “Indeed!”
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 07:30   #11
Moderator
 
a64pilot's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Albany Ga.
Boat: Island Packet 38
Posts: 24,674
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by skipmac View Post
Good time to put in a plug for NASA and the US space program. Tax money spent on NASA is often criticized as a big waste and could be better used on the ground.



But when you look at the lives saved and the reduced property damage from better hurricane prep allowed by better tracking I think arguably the space program more than pays for itself.



Add GPS and technology spinoffs from NASA the program seems like a really good deal.


If you look into it, NASA and only a few other government run programs have actually more than paid for themselves, like the TVA for example.
But we owe the electronics revolution pretty much to NASA, everything from cell phones to medical imaging technology etc were spin offs of space exploration.

However being a government run organization, it’s a victim of its own incompetence, once the Administrators took full control after Apollo, it was a matter of time.
a64pilot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 08:12   #12
Marine Service Provider

Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Virgin Islands
Boat: 1999 Leopard 45, 45 foot cat, 1980 Hunter 33, 33 foot monohull
Posts: 805
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
noaas preseason predictions are same as earthquake predictions. unreliable and shakey.
so far in epac they have not been able to recognize a potential formation. they have become quite the circus.
the only good thing on central pacific predictions is the formations created on mexicoast will not kill us, they will shower and blow dry our hawaiian friends.
however, they are still batting a negative 1000 here.

Sometimes it takes a larger sample! Going back to 1991, when first I spent hurricane season in Mexico, I would say that the various predictions have been useful, and, statitically speaking, objectively improving....way better than just taking a guess, and whilst far from perfect, irresponsible to ignore.
contrail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 08:39   #13
Registered User

Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Maryland
Boat: 1985 Ericson 32-3
Posts: 131
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by skipmac View Post
Good time to put in a plug for NASA and the US space program. Tax money spent on NASA is often criticized as a big waste and could be better used on the ground.

But when you look at the lives saved and the reduced property damage from better hurricane prep allowed by better tracking I think arguably the space program more than pays for itself.

Add GPS and technology spinoffs from NASA the program seems like a really good deal.
Absolutely 100% agree. The Bush II and then Obama Administrations re-oriented NASA to spend a large portion of their budget on Earth observation and weather, after largely fostering the growth of launch capabilities to companies like ULA, SpaceX, and others. There are now more flights to space than ever PLUS the weather forecasts are amazingly more accurate.

We were just talking about our weekend plans, pulled out our cell phones and saw what will be a fairly accurate forecast for two days from now. You sure couldn't do that 10 years ago. Oh right, the cellphone itself is not much older than that and as AH64 mentioned, it's also based in NASA's space program.*

Pre-Season forecasts are still far enough out that they aren't something to overly rely on, but they get the flavor generally right and the near term forecasts have become amazing.



*I'd mention GPS but it started as a military space program that had so much good that none of us would ever give it up and go back to sextants.
Checkswrecks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 08:47   #14
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 3,810
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

GHEEZ!! Do we really need to try and score political points over something as politically-neutral and important to sailors as hurricane predictions?!!

Thanks for posting the info Gord, and for you and others pointing out its limitations.
Exile is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-05-2019, 11:26   #15
Registered User
 
AndyEss's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Sea of Cortez/northern Utah/ Wisconsin/ La Paz, BCS
Boat: Hans Christian 38 Mk II
Posts: 320
Images: 1
Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

The NAVSTAR system which eventually became GPS, was originally setup for our ballistic missile subs to improve targeting accuracy.
Back in the early 1980's, it took us 9-36 hrs to get a position fix during civilian use. Since subs prinarily relied on inertial guidance systems, I assume their Navstar fixes were intended to re-calibrate the inertial guidance systems.
I don't think we can give NASA kudos for GPS.
__________________

AndyEss is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
hurricane

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Caribbean Cruising 2018/2019 season - good or bad idea? jimp1234 General Sailing Forum 21 10-05-2019 06:33
'Tis the season again...No not that one - storm season Afrinus Deck hardware: Rigging, Sails & Hoisting 0 17-06-2018 08:06
2005 Hurricane Season GordMay Weather | Gear, Reports and Resources 10 08-07-2005 10:28
hurricane season in the south pacific? Rdreamz Pacific & South China Sea 4 09-06-2004 08:10
Expect a busy hurricane season GordMay The Library 2 19-05-2004 15:30



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 00:55.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.