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Old 10-03-2015, 14:14   #106
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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agree and then calculate the new improved price of the lithium batteries that are SOOO yesterday: over 10 times that of the lead acid. wait until the electric car proponents have to replace the battery banks of their money savers.
Yea a battery for a leaf runs about $4000, in a Chevy volt you can replace the individual cells in case you have a pack that goes bad. However they say a whole replacement battery is about $4-6k. Now factor that with much cheaper cost per mile of running the vehicle and the cost per mile of charging, also the much lower cost per mile of maintenance versus a internal combustion vehicle. The electric car is still way ahead of the game all while helping to reduce known carcinogens, heart disease, particulate asthma inducing pollution, and CO2 ect.

You guys want to talk about efficiency and energy density of batteries. You talk about how high the energy density of of fossil fuels are. Then you forget to mention that the internal combustion engines are SO inefficient that you convert 70% of the energy in fossil fuels to wasted heat! Now if you take a comparatively efficient electric drive train, (many of which don't have transmissions to waste energy with gear reductions) which means you don't need as much energy per mile to move. I'm excited to see the Chevy Bolt come out in 2016 200 all electric range $30k price tag.
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Old 10-03-2015, 16:48   #107
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Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

RE, electric car battery costs.
I bet it's going to turn out just like the Prius, yes the batteries are VERY expensive, but they apparently last a long time, long enough so that the number of cars that get totaled in just due course more than supply the very low demand for batteries, being that they are coming out of a junkyard and there is very little use for the things and they have no real apparent scrap value, they are very available and cheap.
I bet there may even already be a decent supply of Leaf batteries in junkyards now, due to the enormous amount of energy stored in these batteries, they are very well protected and very unlikely to be damaged.

I believe when and if electric cars become mainstream, there will be a standard battery pack, if needed you drive into a battery change station, pay your money and your dead battery is removed and a freshly charged one slid into place and off you go in about the same time it takes to fill your tank now.


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Old 10-03-2015, 17:45   #108
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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......... The electric car is still way ahead of the game all while helping to reduce known carcinogens, heart disease, particulate asthma inducing pollution, and CO2 ect. ...........
Someone has been drinking the Kool Aide and I think we know who.
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Old 10-03-2015, 17:49   #109
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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Originally Posted by appick View Post
Yea a battery for a leaf runs about $4000, in a Chevy volt you can replace the individual cells in case you have a pack that goes bad. However they say a whole replacement battery is about $4-6k. Now factor that with much cheaper cost per mile of running the vehicle and the cost per mile of charging, also the much lower cost per mile of maintenance versus a internal combustion vehicle. The electric car is still way ahead of the game all while helping to reduce known carcinogens, heart disease, particulate asthma inducing pollution, and CO2 ect.

You guys want to talk about efficiency and energy density of batteries. You talk about how high the energy density of of fossil fuels are. Then you forget to mention that the internal combustion engines are SO inefficient that you convert 70% of the energy in fossil fuels to wasted heat! Now if you take a comparatively efficient electric drive train, (many of which don't have transmissions to waste energy with gear reductions) which means you don't need as much energy per mile to move. I'm excited to see the Chevy Bolt come out in 2016 200 all electric range $30k price tag.
Energy density is easy to figure. The reality is that batteries just don't have enough, even assuming that a fossil fuel engine converts 30%of its possible power to heat (this number is excessive but let's roll with it), and assume an electric motor and battery is 100% efficient, it isn't but it doesn't matter much.

Diesel 48MJ/kg
Li-ion .50MJ/kg
Lead Acid .17MJ/kg

So from a 100kg mass of power storage I get

Diesel - 100*48*.3=1,440MJ of useful power
Li-ion - 100*.50*1=50MJ of useful energy
LA - 100*.17*1= 17MJ of useful energy

So for a given mass diesel accounting for thermal inefficiency stores 28.8 times more power than Li-ion and 84.7 times as much power as lead acid. Wether you want to accept it or not this matters.

And sure getting rid of a transmission will help, but the parasitic drag from a transmission is about 5% or so. Obviously this helps, but not as much as people seem to think.
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Old 10-03-2015, 18:22   #110
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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Protest and debate are a reality, whether they keep us from being stupid as ex-calif says or that it actually makes folks stupid.
Debate slows things down. It forces people to examine issues more thoroughly.
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The general public is not knowledgeable on the subject and allow themselves to be persuaded by folks with agendas.
Forget the public. Our legislators are not knowledgeable on many subjects.

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I'm not a pilot but I feel that commercial pilots days are numbered. The computers fly the plane anyhow, unless you are somehow pulling levers attached to pulleys that turn the plane. I suspect that is not the case.
The data is becoming clearer and clearer that humans screw up more frequently than computers...

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Deterioration of manual flying skills in the age of ubiquitous automation is a very serious issue the flying world is currently wrestling with. This is thought to be at the root of AF447s crash.


Adelie
We already have pilotless drones. The most dangerous flying in the military is the A-10 due to its proximity to the ground, where people shoot at them. They are developing a pilotless A10.

I'd rather fight an F-16 than a missile. The missile is faster and can take more g forces.

The first wave of pilotless commercial airliners will be ex-military drone pilots flying airliners remotely in terminal areas. En-route piloting will be handled by autopilot and computers.

Airliners have had CATIII autoland for years.

Last time I rode jump seats there was a 30 year captain and 5 year First officer. The Captain hand flew the whole flight except a short cruise segment. The FO coupled after gear up and only decoupled to flare.

Adelie is right about atrophied skills. With 18-19 hour flight legs very common for long haul, pilots have to be rotated to short routes to get the required number of landings in per month just to stay basic current.

Change is scary. Remember when ATM machines had assistants to teach you how to use them?
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Old 14-03-2015, 11:10   #111
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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I believe that for world cruisers nowdays solar charging is becoming the best option for charging. We are now seeing plenty of installations over 1kw solar and diesel becoming very much secondary charging.
Totally agree.
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Old 14-03-2015, 11:23   #112
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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Originally Posted by appick View Post
Yea a battery for a leaf runs about $4000, in a Chevy volt you can replace the individual cells in case you have a pack that goes bad. However they say a whole replacement battery is about $4-6k. Now factor that with much cheaper cost per mile of running the vehicle and the cost per mile of charging, also the much lower cost per mile of maintenance versus a internal combustion vehicle. The electric car is still way ahead of the game all while helping to reduce known carcinogens, heart disease, particulate asthma inducing pollution, and CO2 ect.



You guys want to talk about efficiency and energy density of batteries. You talk about how high the energy density of of fossil fuels are. Then you forget to mention that the internal combustion engines are SO inefficient that you convert 70% of the energy in fossil fuels to wasted heat! Now if you take a comparatively efficient electric drive train, (many of which don't have transmissions to waste energy with gear reductions) which means you don't need as much energy per mile to move. I'm excited to see the Chevy Bolt come out in 2016 200 all electric range $30k price tag.

No one supports the 19th century heap of bolts that is the IC engine. But the magic is the fuel.


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Old 14-03-2015, 22:22   #113
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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Wrong.

The autopilot disengaged because it had experienced conditions beyond its programming.

Air France 447 crashed because the pilot handling the aircraft did not properly recognize a fairly common problem and did to react appropriately even when the aircraft captain returned to the cockpit from a rest period and told him what to do.

Deterioration of manual flying skills in the age of ubiquitous automation is a very serious issue the flying world is currently wrestling with. This is thought to be at the root of AF447s crash.


Adelie
The autopilot did what it was supposed to do. There is no such thing as being "outside its programming". The autopilot programing said "if x then Y" and it did it. The air speed indicators got iced up. The fact that the pilot was the least experienced crew member says a lot about their training, not about the autopilot. What did the PILOT do when the air speed indicators iced up... he immediately did the wrong thing. At least the computer got it right.

The more autopilots are put in charge of planes, the smarter they get. There are only so many obstacles that exist in flight and I do not believe there is a discipline that humans can do that computers can not do better.
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Old 14-03-2015, 22:28   #114
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

Self driving cars are here folks. My kids kids will ask the grandpa about the old days when people actually drove their own cars.
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Old 14-03-2015, 22:40   #115
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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The autopilot did what it was supposed to do. There is no such thing as being "outside its programming". The autopilot programing said "if x then Y" and it did it. The air speed indicators got iced up. The fact that the pilot was the least experienced crew member says a lot about their training, not about the autopilot. What did the PILOT do when the air speed indicators iced up... he immediately did the wrong thing. At least the computer got it right.

The more autopilots are put in charge of planes, the smarter they get. There are only so many obstacles that exist in flight and I do not believe there is a discipline that humans can do that computers can not do better.
Ballet dancing and singing Opera. Two disciplines that humans can do that a computer can not do better. I could think of more but this is a family forum.
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Old 15-03-2015, 09:26   #116
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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Self driving cars are here folks. My kids kids will ask the grandpa about the old days when people actually drove their own cars.

The base technology may be just about ready. The legal and road frameworks that are needed are decades away


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Old 15-03-2015, 13:32   #117
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

How did it get from lithium batteries senile drivers like me?


I am not sure what I have gotten out of this other that stay with the conventional at the moment.
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Old 15-03-2015, 13:33   #118
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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No one supports the 19th century heap of bolts that is the IC engine. But the magic is the fuel.


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Exactly! I'll say it again, the "tipping point" for the 21st century will be robust, reliable and efficient fuel cells which can convert multiple fossil fuels to electrical power.
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Old 15-03-2015, 13:48   #119
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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The base technology may be just about ready. The legal and road frameworks that are needed are decades away


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I don't think it's decades away. This will happen, and rather soon because the most powerful political force in the US will reap huge savings from it. Every business that pays a large number of long-haul drivers will successfully oppose legal impediments.

The long-haul trucks are the perfect start for driverless motoring; fixed routes, high numbers, and huge economic advantages to ditch the drivers. I don't know if the trucks will switch from diesel, but I hope it's possible, especially if the battery pack could be loaded on the tracker as the new trailer is attached.

Driverless long-haul trucks will overcome the human failings of absenteeism, drug abuse, and law suit losses due to accidents.

Remember "Tomorrow Land?" By the time it could be built, it was a history museum. Same reason Kubric could never figure out how to make AI. Change is happening so fast, your computer is a generation behind as soon as it goes on sale. I don't think we had the same desire for the new model Smith-Corona.

We are surfing a logarithmically swelling wave of tech change; exciting times indeed.

Fair winds,

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Old 16-03-2015, 00:30   #120
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Re: Lithium Batteries are SOOO yesterday

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Ballet dancing and singing Opera. Two disciplines that humans can do that a computer can not do better. I could think of more but this is a family forum.
Well, this is not a family forum. I'm not sure where you got that idea There are plenty of pirates, whisky, and wenches to go around here!

I'm not so sure storage density is going to be problem in the future, they already have developed solar panels that have a layer that picks up on infrared wave lengths so they have produce power at night. They also have a new panel that uses layers of cells, each that react to a different wave length of light.. I think it tops out at 40 or 50%.

When you combine power generation possibility with new materials like graphene (so efficient at conducting electricity that physics is having a difficult time coming up with a way to stop the flow) you end up with a future of almost unlimited cheap energy production with nearly perfect transmission of that energy, so you don't really need to store that much power.
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