Lipo vs lifepo4

[newhaul]

On another front I read a bit from Elton musk via a tesla press release concerning their semi truck design. They claim that the energy density of battery technology is increasing at a rate of 7.5% per year. ( which unless my math is wrong ) would be exponential) and mean a doubling of energy density every ten years. Sounds kinda against physics. But I hope he is correct.

http://business.financialpost.com/tr...s-of-batteries

[newhaul]

Here is the quote buried toward the bottom of the article

Again, Musk may be banking on the future. While Tesla began taking deposits on the Roadster immediately — US$50,000 for the base model — the first vehicles won’t be delivered until 2020. Meanwhile, battery density has been improving at a rate of 7.5 per cent a year, meaning that by the time production starts, packs will be smaller and more powerful, even without a major breakthrough in battery chemistry.

[john61ct]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Again, Musk may be banking on the future. While Tesla began taking deposits on the Roadster immediately — US$50,000 for the base model — the first vehicles won’t be delivered until 2020. Meanwhile, battery density has been improving at a rate of 7.5 per cent a year, meaning that by the time production starts, packs will be smaller and more powerful, even without a major breakthrough in battery chemistry.

He's using hundreds of the tiny 18650 cells, currently OTS Panasonic NMC type.

With billions to tweak for the factors he cares about,

Energy density is just one factor.

LFP is **much less** dense, but then doesn't need expensive electronics to prevent explosive fires.

And lasts 7-12 times longer.

EV usage really is completely different from House banks.

And we DIY users a very conservative bunch, rightly so.

The bleeding edge will continue to accelerate much faster than the consumer base will be able / willing to adopt.

You first 8-)

[hellosailor]

"the first vehicles won’t be delivered until 2020. Meanwhile,"
Ergh. While his focus seems to be overly scattered, and he sometimes forgets to mention things, like the Hyperloop concept going back to HG Wells, or was it Jules Verne? who proposed one under the Atlantic. Or that a pneumatic subway was actually demonstrated under NYC over a hundred years ago. Yeah, little technical issues remain with that.
And the entire Tesla operation is still running at a huge LOSS, no profits, just increased investor cash. Despite his intents, it may be a defacto Ponzi scheme if it goes bust. And even Nicolai Tesla himself is proof that genius and bankruptcy are not mutually exclusive. The much-ballyhooed Model 3 appears totally stalled out with just the first 250-odd being built. Maybe. And "routine" production issues making production impossible?
Then there are some serious questions being raised, of Tesla power units being replaced two and three times under warranty--sometimes with months to wait for new parts--but when the warranty is up, who will fix them? Parts and even data (manuals) just aren't available to the public.
Musk is more akin to Wylie Coyote running into thin air off a cliff. As long as he doesn't look down, he won't fall. Will he?
I do wish his enterprises well. I would like to see space travel, and self-driving cars, and many other things. But as Henry Ford and others proved when they killed Stanley's Steamer...having a better mousetrap and getting it to win market mass, are very different things. Musk has yet to prove his business acumen, putting actual things on a business [read: PROFIT] basis.
Fortunately, the folks with $50k to gamble as a deposit on a $250k car that may be a total loss of their money, can afford to lose that all. And they'll be helping to fund the production of Model3's, in the meantime.(G)

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by john61ct

He's using hundreds of the tiny 18650 cells, currently OTS Panasonic NMC type.

With billions to tweak for the factors he cares about,

Energy density is just one factor.

LFP is **much less** dense, but then doesn't need expensive electronics to prevent explosive fires.

And lasts 7-12 times longer.

EV usage really is completely different from House banks.

And we DIY users a very conservative bunch, rightly so.

The bleeding edge will continue to accelerate much faster than the consumer base will be able / willing to adopt.

You first 8-)

I really don't believe his snake oil either . His company is hemorrhaging money at about $8,000 an hour. (Tesla) makes it kinda hard to believe .

[john61ct]

I'm not invested either way in the company or the man.

The day will come when DIY community FOSS support infrastructure will make all the major EV packs available for our use case, and I look forward to that, maybe 2-3 years.

Nothing special about Tesla in that regard, just Elon's good at PR getting the Overton window shifted a bit in the right direction, or at least counteracting the "forever fossil fuel" fools taken over gov energy policy and MSM propoganda these days.

[daletournier]

Musk is a great salesman, people want to believe. As others have mentioned "look at the numbers". When he first advertised the powerwall I had a girl crewing with me that showed me his presentation as if he'd invented something brand new! When I mentioned that's its not new technology just packaging she took offence because I'm a non believer and a non musk worshipper!
We need visionaries, absolutely and Musk is one but he's also a show "the Elon Musk show". Huge market cap, no profit, explain this to me please?

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Musk is a great salesman, people want to believe. As others have mentioned "look at the numbers". When he first advertised the powerwall I had a girl crewing with me that showed me his presentation as if he'd invented something brand new! When I mentioned that's its not new technology just packaging she took offence because I'm a non believer and a non musk worshipper!
We need visionaries, absolutely and Musk is one but he's also a show "the Elon Musk show". Huge market cap, no profit, explain this to me please?

a bit like this song
Lizzie and the rain man
https://youtu.be/NIlEFK0KZ6s

[StuM]

Originally Posted by newhaul

I really don't believe his snake oil either . His company is hemorrhaging money at about $8,000 an hour. (Tesla) makes it kinda hard to believe .

Try $8,000 per minute.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-model-3-woes

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by StuM

Try $8,000 per minute.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-model-3-woes

Stu you are correct I was less than half awake when I read the report originally.

[senormechanico]

There are lots of youtube videos of LiFePo4 cells being shorted, shot etc.
I don't want to turn this into a gun thread, but wonder what would happen to a Tesla Power wall if it became a victim of a drive by shooting...

[john61ct]

Believe me Elon's lawyers and engineers have planned for every possibility.

America's a pretty important target market (hehe)

[hellosailor]

Elon's lawyers? He's already been kissing close to bankruptcy, that's been well publicized if quietly not discussed much recently. If he doesn't have more than pocket money sitting around in a cash account someplace out of his name and out of sight, I'd be surprised at his unusually high ethics.

There's a better target market for EV's in places like China, where they are being mandated. And in the EU, where "burners" and scheduled to be banned in coming years.

Between range anxiety (the US being one of the few places where you CAN take a casual ten hour roadtrip on a weekend) and the unaddressed cost of trying to put electric chargers in the big cities...the US might not be a great market, in the bigger picture.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by hellosailor

Elon's lawyers? He's already been kissing close to bankruptcy, that's been well publicized if quietly not discussed much recently. If he doesn't have more than pocket money sitting around in a cash account someplace out of his name and out of sight, I'd be surprised at his unusually high ethics.

There's a better target market for EV's in places like China, where they are being mandated. And in the EU, where "burners" and scheduled to be banned in coming years.

Between range anxiety (the US being one of the few places where you CAN take a casual ten hour roadtrip on a weekend) and the unaddressed cost of trying to put electric chargers in the big cities...the US might not be a great market, in the bigger picture.

except no other nation would give his grant after grant for a continual loosing venture. ( $8,000 a minute loss)

[newhaul]

Just got the quote $906.00 USD. Delivered within 7 days to me. For 4 of the 100ah batteries.
That includes the $230.00 shipping cost.
It is $510 including shipping of $178 for 2 of the batteries.
(Lifepo4 ).