Originally Posted by fhrussell
I have the same question... What is the margin of error if the forcast was for 35-40 kts.?
Hey Etienne, as my grade school
teachers used to say, "That ignorant question you have is the same one 6 other people in the class are asking, but are afraid to ask."
There are others here far more quailified than me to answer your question. And many of them know technical stuff and words and even have facts
to support them.
But I don't usually let things like this prevent me from giving my opinion
When it comes to weather forecasts I use them as a Guide not as a certainty and allow for the possibility that they could be wrong - by how much? Off the top of my head
I would say by 1 "Force", but with proviso that it could
be a couple. or more.
I was once going accross Biscay (3 day passage), we motored for most of 2 days cos of zero wind
. 3rd day we had a gale. Probably an 8. felt like a 12
The zero wind was not predicted exactly, nor was later the "hooley", although we knew from the forecast that the weather was building. (a bit more wind at the start and a bit less at the end would have been perfect).
My (unscientific!) understanding is that a Weather Forecast from the Met Office can still be perfectly "correct", even if the weather you encounter locally is not identical to the forecast as their will always be local variations and changes that cannot be predicted to a micro level of accuracy and specific location. And the worse the weather the more scope
for things to change at short notice?? (or is that just my pessimism?!!)
Living on a small island the weather seems to be harder to predict, perhaps nowadays not so much what is coming - but when it is arriving.
I guess what I also pay greater attention to is whether the weather is rising or falling.
But then again when at home I quite often look out the window and base my decision on whether it is sunny or looks like it might
rain. (but don't tell anyone