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Old 05-09-2008, 13:38   #16
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If I were in Mayaguana, I too would choose a southern escape. But from Long Island - dunno. The Windward passage is probably about 200 mi. away, requires some easting toward the storm, and some spaghetti models have Ike trending south. Unlike heading North, once you're comitted to the southern route there's no alternative (Great Inagua, Cuba, Haiti). Still it's a good hypothetical and I don't seriously dispute anyone's solution. I confess I sort of forgot about guys with fast catamarans - that could make a difference.
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Old 05-09-2008, 14:18   #17
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I am impressed of all the lessons one can learn from a thread like this, I have flown on the airlines right on the area in question and during the hurricane season hauling passengers to and from latin america for many years, I realize how much more difficult is to exercise good criteria on sailing; it is much easier to make decisions when you are cruising at 8 nautical miles per minute with room to spare fuelwise. I will continue reading as I am a new sailor and I still have a lot to learn from you guys, thanks again.
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Old 05-09-2008, 14:35   #18
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Hmm...Possibly 50 hours at 5 knots to get south of Cuba and then no guarantee Ike wouldn't beak south and follow. Or--with adequate crew and fuel--move the same 350 miles north and even eventually east towards Bermuda, trying to stay above and slip behind the devil, with open sea room.

I think a lot would depend on boat size versus sea state, and whether there was able-bodied crew to make a run to sea. Given the current string of storms I wouldn't expect to find any access to a hurricane hole, and riding out a probably Cat4 at anchor sounds more like "pull the engine and electronics and sink the hull to save it now."

I'd hate to play tag trying to ride that out at sea, but would expect a total loss at anchor and no better chance trying to run south--unless I could run very very fast indeed.

What was it, some six? seven? years ago that one of the Windjammers tried to run off Mexico but the storm kept zigging and eventually caught up to it anyway?
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Old 05-09-2008, 14:52   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lodesman View Post
I haven't been following the forecasts, but am curious as to how many hurricanes have ever gone South?

I think I would choose to run South as far and as fast as possible.

Kevin
All it takes is one.

Ivan went south in 2004. The original forecasts had him aimed at Martinique, I believe. Subsequent forecasts sifted south, little by little. At some point, The Moorings in Canouan (in the Grenadines) decided to move all their boats and anchor them in the bays on the south shore of Grenada, because everyone thought that the northern Grenadines would be Ivan's target. Ivan jinked south at the last hour, and ran right over them, and a lot of others who had hoped they would be safe there. The winds were 150 kts with higher gusts.

I'd never try to out-guess or out-run a hurricane. Secure the boat as best you can, wherever you can, and find shelter for yourself and crew ashore.
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Old 05-09-2008, 14:57   #20
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I'm thinking that you just can't bet on out running a storm you can't predict. They grow and move at least twice as fast. Since it has the potential to be quite big, you are not likely to "guess" correctly. I would be more inclined to prove you can't be hauled or second best get the boat tied to something more solid than an anchor. You just don't have a lot going for you with 145 mph winds and the waves they bring just for the heck of it.

My neighbor is down in the Bahamas right now trying to deliver a boat while his boat is about to get nailed by Hanna Saturday afternoon. We helped him out a little today. In the end I'm very sure I would not be in Florida in September. It solves too many scenarios to just not be there in the first place. The time to run was several days ago. You can be screwed by the calendar. It;'s the most dangerous device on the boat. With two storms piggy back one could go north and the other goes south so you don't bet on a storm. With it being September there is no really sure bet on any destination unless it has a travel lift waiting.
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Old 05-09-2008, 15:52   #21
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The old timers in Far North Queensland...

The old timers in Far North Queensland used to say that the best place for a boat in a cyclone was up one of the mangrove creeks.

Certainly those who found themselves exposed in poor anchorage off Abel Point in the last serious blow had more problems than some could manage.

I know many used to go to the creeks and I am not aware of any serious problems arising. Others may have more knowledge.
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Old 05-09-2008, 16:55   #22
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Hud,

The path of Ivan (courtesy of Wikipedia) doesn't show it tracking South at all until it petered out to a depression. The changing forecast was probably due instead to Ivan not curving North as soon as originally thought. I'm no hurricane expert, but I've always understood that 'canes in that area almost always track West then curve to Northish.
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Old 05-09-2008, 18:21   #23
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I've always understood that 'canes in that area almost always track West then curve to Northish.
I had to chuckle just a bit at that line. Yes, of course you're right but.... they are hurricanes and go where they please. The National Hurricane Center does their best but apparently their tools are imperfect. Pick any hurricane and check out the tracks vs tracking forecast. Those tracking forecasts change every day. For instance Ike is now predicted to move south over Cuba, this morning it wasn't..

I guess you could say that Hurricans are just as predictable as... (gulp)...women.
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Old 05-09-2008, 18:59   #24
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I think I would head to Stocking Island off Georgetown (striping the boat as I went), anchor the boat (with as many anchors as I could put down) as far back in hole 1, 2 or 3 as I could get, gather my valuables (including insurance papers for the boat) then be on the first plane I could get out of Georgetown. I have a feeling Ike is gonna be a bitch!
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Old 05-09-2008, 19:00   #25
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Old 06-09-2008, 07:08   #26
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Ike is now predicted to move south over Cuba, this morning it wasn't...
Yeah Rick I get the unpredictable part, but Ike's not moving South - it's moving WSW'ly (255@14). Hud's pretty picture doesn't show any storms that have altered South into the Caribbean. And 150 years worth of Ike-like storms don't show a single one going South of Cuba. It's all well and good to suggest strapping down the boat and leaving it, but you also have to be able to get off the island - I'd think getting a flight might be problematic.
I'm sticking with my plan

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Old 06-09-2008, 07:43   #27
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HUD,
Your chart is so uplifting
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:27   #28
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The 11:00 AM advisory shifts Ike's track further south. Still not south of Cuba, but running along the backbone of the island. The forecast has the storm weakening over Cuba, but breaking into the Gulf on a NW track, strengthening to cat 3 and headed .......... where else? - straight for New Orleans.

Of course, this would not have happened if Lodesman had decided to run North.
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:11   #29
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So far I am looking pretty good sitting in Nassau, and I can purchase more fuel
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Old 06-09-2008, 12:15   #30
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Lodesman,

I take your point about hurricanes moving generally west and then curving northward. That's almost always the case. The comment I made in my first post here was that Ivan's actual track was well south of successive forecasts made by the NHC. It doesn't show in the graphic, but Ivan did make a juke south just before it smashed into Grenada. The eye passed over the bays where hundreds of sailboats had sought shelter.

Hurricanes are fickle beasts, though, and defy generalities. 1999 Hurricane Lenny is still spoken of with awe here on Nevis. It came through the "wrong way", according to the locals, hitting the island from the southwest. Winds weren't the issue, rather the storm surge and the swells. Thirty foot waves on top of a 10' surge wiped out the Four Seasons Resort, flooded much of Charlestown, and many other sites on the Caribbean side of the island.

Then it headed southwest. Lenny

(graphic from wunderground.com)
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