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View Poll Results: What would the best chance of getting away be?
Beat into the wind to put as much distance between you and the coast s possible, while you listen to some cool music and pretend you're a action hero. 89 57.05%
Go paralell to the coastline and try to keep your distance while being beat up by the waves, just because you have a thing for self torture. 11 7.05%
Furl the sails and throw in the sea anchor, haul out the portable DVD-player and crawl back into bed with a cup of hot cocoa and watch "Titanic". 61 39.10%
I'm screwed, I'll inflate the liferaft and jump ship tightly hugging the EPIRB. 2 1.28%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 156. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 18-11-2008, 22:16   #31
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Originally Posted by SMcD View Post
I *am* curious: how many of you have been in a situation similar to the one Hampus described? Let's say someone has full-time cruised for about five years...on average, how often might someone find him/herself in that kind of situation?

The odds of a sailor getting caught in something like this are slim unless he is on a long offshore passage. I live on the Texas Gulf coast and we went several years, maybe 10+ without experiencing these type winds.

Course in the past 3 years we have had maybe 4 'canes.


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Old 18-11-2008, 22:40   #32
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Otter,

I think it was implied that you had 100 miles of safe-water between you and the shoreline. From the given information, I think the only thing that possibly could be assumed is that you've been caught by surprise by a fast-moving storm. Presumedly this storm will pass by you long before you're driven ashore. I guess there's another assumption - being this is a cruiser's forum - that you're sailing a small yacht, not a supertanker. Perhaps you can explain to me how your boat's weight factors into this? Given that, just how much farther offshore do you want to be?

Oh yeah - 100 miles off Florida's east coast sees depths of over 400 fathoms, with the exception of the Bahamas banks, but if you're in either bank, you'll be a lot closer than 100 miles to shore.

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Old 18-11-2008, 23:07   #33
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A 49 ft boat witha 20 ft draft? I think it has already turtled and your mast is broken at the first spreader. LOL
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Old 19-11-2008, 21:34   #34
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in answer to the weight question, if you have a very heavy boat that sits low in the water then the wind won't have as much area to push against therefore it will push you less and slower, also if it is a very heavy boat then the currents won't be able to push you as easily. also I pulled the boat specs out of thin air and a 46' boat is more likley to have a draft of 35' or more.
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Old 19-11-2008, 22:02   #35
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Otter,

Weight has very little effect on windage - windage is most affected by the design of the boat - unless of course you're talking tankers or bulk freighters, where ships in ballast obviously have much greater windage. Weight has absolutely no effect on current. And I think you must be mixing your 's with your "s, or you're missing a decimal place (that is a 460 foot ship might have a 35 foot draught).

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Old 20-11-2008, 09:51   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therapy View Post
Give me a break you 60%ers.

You have some skills I never even thought of having.

The weather is severe with a wind of 60 knots, gusts reaching 80. Waves are around 20 feet, some even reaching 30 and breaking...


No one is going to be doing much "sailing"
In those conditions ones not going to be doing much of anything but surviving - but it seems to me this chap is asking from a list how one might choose to survive in the scenario he describes.

My daddy always said best way to survive the ambush is to not go in the gully. IMHO that's true in this case also.

And sorry to sound dumb, but what's a 60%er?
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Old 20-11-2008, 11:24   #37
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John,

I believe 60% probably refers to the number who choose option # 1 - of course that's a moving target, and has (at the time of this post) increased to over 68%. Apparently Therapy and I agree that it is highly unlikely that anyone could sail in those conditions. If the poll was asking what we would choose to do, no matter how unrealistic, then it should have included an option # 5 - "beam me up, scotty"

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Old 20-11-2008, 18:33   #38
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Old 26-11-2008, 06:00   #39
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Hmmm . . . .

I say minimize the trauma to the boat and crew and just try and hold your ground, sea anchor, drogue, storm sail and heave to. . .whatever. Those are pretty bad conditions to be proactive in. More like bare polls and pray.

Also, issue a Pan Pan and make sure that radio is working!

THEN, if you survive, get to shore, get off the damn boat and sell it, because if your weather and routing skills are so utterly pitiful that you got caught in a survival storm only 100 miles at sea. Offshore sailing is not for you.

It's a fun poll and I understand the question seeks spirited debate and that is always fun.

BUT, it's like asking: you just took off in a Cessna 185 and forgot to put fuel in it. You are soon out of gas but too far from the airport to return. You are coming in dead stick over a university campus when the controls go slack because you have not inspected the control systems in 40 years. It is Saturday afternoon. The plane is headed for the stadium and a football game is underway. In fact, it looks like a football team is lining up to take to the field and you are headed right for THEM! And it's YOUR team.

You drank a fifth of Jack Daniels before you took off, so it's hard to focus, very hard, BUT, do you 1) jump out and kill yourself to make SURE you die; or 2) do you stay in the plane and risk surviving?

Truth be told, the ONLY way you get caught in deadly survival storms is by taking chances by sailing out of season and deviating from accepted routes and/or ignoring or underestimating weather systems.

Don't get me wrong, it's still a fun thread, but odds are, if you are fastidious and cautious, you'll never see any truly sustained winds over 30 to 35, and of course the occasional gusts to 50 in passing squalls. . . all very doable with a little bit of experience.

In Bruce Van Sant's book, he states in so many words that "new cruisers are preoccupied with tactics and equipment for use in survival storms that they will never see. Instead, they should be focusing on spare parts, resin and cloth, sheet gasket and tools and skills it takes to repair a boat in remote locations."

Good advice.

All the best,

Buddy
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Old 26-11-2008, 06:15   #40
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This "Chap" likes the way this is going As stated before. The question was part jokingly part serious and there is no answer that's 100% correct. Even if most of us are just "desktop" sailing as we answer this, I still find it interesting.

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Old 26-11-2008, 08:30   #41
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Quote:
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snip
I find your answer
1. Patronising
2. Misleading
3. unhelpfull

apart from that it was ok

It is relatively easy to consider being in those conditions is as a proper long distance cruiser it is at the end of a long voyage, and whilst still taking account of the weather you get caught by something that has rapidly accelerated and changed direction.

This has happened numerous times.

As for telling peple not to pay attention to survival conditions as it is unlikely you will need it as much as you need the other items such as spares, repair etc. I would suggest that you start to learn a bit more about risk management. This should never be a case of either/or, but a case of mitigating risk.
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Old 26-11-2008, 08:31   #42
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I agree - you wouldn't be doing much sailing in those conditions but some storm sails and a trusty windvane might keep you away from shore until the storm abates even though you won't be making many miles. Meanwhile, stay below, keep warm, rested and fed.
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Old 26-11-2008, 08:57   #43
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Old 26-11-2008, 09:58   #44
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I would suggest that you start to learn a bit more about risk management. This should never be a case of either/or, but a case of mitigating risk.
We have all the stuff money can buy, books, equipment and experience.

So, I find your response:

1. Patronising
2. Misleading
3. unhelpful (with only one "l" on the end):

apart from that it was ok

Maybe we are just different in our approach. While you seek to "manage" risks I much prefer to avoid them.

That does not mean you should not have skills nor be ready. But, the truth is that of the thousands and thousands of cruisers going to sea these days, VERY FEW wind up in huge breaking seas and 80 knot winds, and those rare few that did often made a mistake or took a chance that got them there. A compounding of errors, such as taking risky routes, taking out of season passages, or being too tired at the end of a long passage due to poor practices or insufficient crew and making poor decisions.

My message is don't take chances, any chances, and your odds of never being caught with your pants all the way down is very very good.

If you don't find that helpful, well. . . .

Different strokes for different folks.

All the best,

Buddy

PS: You ARE kidding that the probablity of survival storms and needing spare parts are equal, right? Geez, I would not even joke about that and such a statement is, well, simply not true.
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Old 26-11-2008, 10:18   #45
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Oh, geez, Talbot. . . .

I am so sorry. I did not notice you are from Norway!

You guys have to be ready for ANYTHING, RIGHT!

All the best,

Buddy
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