Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Paul L

If the recreational airplane market is analgous to the boat market and the premise of this thread is true: boomers well leave a glut of boats, then I expect you would already see this in the plane market. Boomers will most likely drop out of the plane market much sooner due to medical reasons and licensing, where they can soldier on much longer on their boats.

There has been a glut of old airplanes for decades, many, many seem to just sit and rot until there is no or little value to them, many are bought as “projects” that get started, but never finished.

Sound familiar?

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Davy J

In contradiction to my first post, it may become increasingly easy to find a glut of cheap boats.............. Finding a place to keep them will be the problem.

What I remember from my first trip to Key West was the surprising number of cheap old boats in what I’m certain was insanely expensive Marina’s, and they had obviously been sitting there for awhile, unoccupied. I mean to me $200 a night for a 40 ft Boat is insane, but I bought one night to let the Wife rest. We had a bad night before.

[Davy J]

I mean to me $200 a night for a 40 ft Boat is insane, but I bought one night to let the Wife rest. We had a bad night before.

When we head to the Key's, we anchor out mostly. When we get to Key West, we spend two or three nights at the Key West Bight Marina. We "kinda-of" considerate it a vacation....... Kinda- of like going to Disney World. My advice is to request a slip on "A" dock. There will be less "junkers".

The dinghy dock shows the reality of it, It's cheaper, to live there, at least right now, to live on a junk boat, at anchor, than to pay rent on land.

[Pegu Club]

Now is the time to buy a older boat.
When we were looking for a sail boat in the thirty foot area, three years ago, there was a lot to choose from that were in very good shape. We purchased a 1977 Bristol 29.9 put a bunch of work into it, including a new engine and came out 50% less cash outlay than buying a new sail boat of the same size, equally equiped. We are presently in the Bahamas 🇧🇸 cruiseing. So do not let anyone tell you that older boats are to far gone to purchase, fix up and sail, it is simply not true.

Fair winds,

[Plutoi]

Here in the US there are many news articles of boomers downsizing and trying to sell heirloom furniture for the price of a car only to find out they can’t even give it away. Their kids don’t want a grand clock and dark heavy furniture; and neither do consignment stores.

Perhaps a similar parallel will happen with their old boats?

I’m a X generation better off than my peers looking for a 5-10 year old 38’ coastal cruiser. Never owned a boat before!

[thinwater]

Originally Posted by Chotu

The trends seem accurate as described here, but why are all the marinas full or on wait list?...

But I would swear there seem to be fewer boats on the water, and more that just sit at the dock.


If you get "Good Old Boat Magazine," read the article on excuses for not going sailing (March-April). I had fun with it.

[thinwater]

Beneteau switch from their prior line of "First" starter boats to the Seascape line. I think the reasons are:
* Starter boats compete with 40 years of second hand starter boats. If the buyer is just starting and looking for value, why buy new?
* Seascape boats are something new. They are sport boats that really fly. They don't compete with all the old starter boats and they appeal to the new "extreme" culture. Since I started with fast multihulls, I get that.


Curiously, The manufactures of the first 3 boats I owned are gone (Prindle, Force Engineering, and PDQ is so restructured it is really a different company). The builder of my current boat (Corsair) is doing fine, I think. But Corsair has continued to evolve to sportier and lighter, and dropped the original mid-size (F-27) that got them started, because the market moved away from that size. It wants either bigger and fancier, or small and extreme. I'm pretty sure they're right.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Pegu Club

Now is the time to buy a older boat.

As an owner of a well cared for classic boat from the 80's, this was unfortunately (for me) just confirmed by a very experienced, long time broker friend in Annapolis. The entire marine market was predictably devastated by the 2007-08 economic crisis. To the extent it's come back for some segments, the older, so-called classic "bluewater" boats are tough sells, and the market has devalued them accordingly. This broker echoed some of the comments made here by attributing it to a combo of older, full-time sailors "aging out," younger generations not being interested in using boats for long-distance passages, and a stronger interest for newer style boats that offer more space & accommodation for daysailing & coastal trips. Given the glut, it's a fantastic opportunity to buy boats that would cost $1M+ to manufacture these days, at a fraction of that amount. Yes, many of these older boats have been neglected and have languished, but others have been well maintained by devoted, long-time owners. Undoubtedly a less expensive alternative to buying new or near-new (even assuming expensive refit costs), but that's apparently not what most buyers are now looking for.

Last time I checked, there were seven Bristol 47.7's for sale on yacht broker.com, with a wide range of age, condition & asking price. Several had already had steep price cuts. That's 10% of the total number of this model ever produced!

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Exile

As an owner of a well cared for classic boat from the 80's, this was unfortunately (for me) just confirmed by a very experienced, long time broker friend in Annapolis. The entire marine market was predictably devastated by the 2007-08 economic crisis. To the extent it's come back for some segments, the older, so-called classic "bluewater" boats are tough sells, and the market has devalued them accordingly. ...

I heard the same from a broker a few years ago. He actually approached me to see if I’d be willing to sell since he had an interested buyer. Always curious, I asked what the going price for my boat was.

Lets just say, I learned I can’t afford to sell .

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I heard the same from a broker a few years ago. He actually approached me to see if I’d be willing to sell since he had an interested buyer. Always curious, I asked what the going price for my boat was.

Lets just say, I learned I can’t afford to sell .

I hear ya. I don't know if this is just another symptom of the boat ownership illness or unique to me, but I often fluctuate between wanting to sail across an ocean and wanting to sell. Not too many thoughts in between, but that's of course where my boat continues to reside. I think I may need to look up that Good Old Boat article thinwater just pointed us to.

The good news is that, while the used boat market is weak, home rentals where I live are strong. Maybe a sign it's time to go sailing?

[gonesail]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Actually the wealthy are buying boats and airplanes, in record numbers. Just not the boats and airplanes Joe the Plumber used to buy. Sales and deliveries of Mega Yachts I’ll bet are at historic levels, Gulfstream is sold out years in advance for their biggest “Business” jet that starts at $65 million each.

that's what I'm thinking. there will be used boats around but they won't be affordable by many. the agents will sit on them the same way they sit on real estate .. driving the prices up to the point where only a few with money can buy them. sure there will be relics around but not many will have the guts to commit to owning them.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Exile

the older, so-called classic "bluewater" boats are tough sells, and the market has devalued them accordingly. This broker echoed some of the comments made here by attributing it to a combo of older, full-time sailors "aging out," younger generations not being interested in using boats for long-distance passages

When you say bluewater, are you referring to power offshore fishing boats? Or cruising sail boats?

[thinwater]

I've always managed to sell for what I paid. I guess I avoided boats of which there was a glut. I also took very good care and generally up-graded them a fair bit.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

When you say bluewater, are you referring to power offshore fishing boats? Or cruising sail boats?

Cruising sailboats, and specifically ones built in the 70's through 90's designed for living aboard, and built with an emphasis on long-distance cruising across open oceans. Extended passagemaking. Don't know much about power boats.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

It's a relatively small slice of the general public, and yet "boatig" still encompasses such a wide range of activities, from a canoe all the way up to a megayacht...


I don't think there's a meaningful answer to your question.

I'm attempting to forecast the macro trend in US boat prices for 40-80 foot power cruisers over the next 15 years for the purpose of planning a budget. The non-boating public is irrelevant. The average age of retirement is 62 and the boomer demographic is easy to measure. The key is determining when is the average age of retirement from boating with a 40-80 foot cruiser. Using averages is fine for predicting macro trends. The oldest boomers are presently 73, youngest are 55.

Just as a hypothetical guess, if the average age of boating retirement is 60, then there should be increasing inventories of used boats coming onto the market in the next 5 years relative to today's inventories, leading to a buyer's market that is peaking now and over the next 5 years or so. If the average age of boating retirement is 70, then there should be increasing inventories of used boats coming onto the market in the next 15 years relative to today's inventories, leading to a buyer's market in 15 years. On the other hand, the spread in ages, economics, and health might be so broad that there will be only a long, low wave of increased inventories spread out over a few decades. It would just be nice to forecast the macro trends for boats that don't leave the marinas, preferred boat types and lengths, etc. based on collecting more objective information like a poll.