Who will Buy the Boats?

[NOLA_sailing]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

In August a got a hard top to install on the boat. So I needed a pick up truck to bring the top to the boat. Rented F-150 from U-Haul. Was appalled at the gas gauge moving as I was driving. I drove altogether about 80 miles r/t, no more. Had to put just about $35 worth of gas to bring the needle to where it was when I got it. I calculated it was guzzling 8mpg. And half of my 80 miles were highway miles.

Not to play devil's advocate, but is it possible that the drag or lift created by the hardtop in the truck bed reduced your fuel efficiency?

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by onestepcsy37

Just like the stock market. During the trading day selling brokers are asking a price for a share and buying brokers are bidding a price for the share. Sometimes they settle on a price and sometimes they dont. BUT, at the end of the trading day the closing price for that share is the price that a broker is willing to pay (bid) and not the price that the seller thinks its worth (asked).

Actually, this is incorrect. If the seller thinks it's worth $100 and the buyer only offers $50, the seller won't sell. Eventually someone may give ground (more likely both) but there is no guarantee it will be the seller who gives ground. If it's really worth it, the buyer will eventually pay the price.

The problem with boats is these are not rational buyers and sellers. These are people who have bought into a dream and that often leads to stupid financial choices that otherwise financial smart people would never take.
- Most people consider a car a utility device to get around. As long as it's clean, comfortable and reliable a large percentage of the population doesn't set their self worth based on their car. As a result, while you get the occasional unreasonable pricing, the market tends to hang out fairly close to what the cars are really worth.
- Boats are often much more personal and people often get very hung up on why thiers is better. This makes it very hard to accept that the $500k dream they purchased 5yrs ago is now only worth $150k today.

Another issue is a mass market car may have a production run on the order of 50,000 units per year. The large numbers allow for meaninful research to determine realistic pricing.

A popular boat model may have a production run of 50 units per year. Then the level of customization available for those 50 units is far greater so it becomes hard to compare and get a solid read on what a used boat should cost.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by NOLA_sailing

Not to play devil's advocate, but is it possible that the drag or lift created by the hardtop in the truck bed reduced your fuel efficiency?

That would account for only driving there as the drive back was w/o the top. Also the way we transported it, flat on top of the truck bed would not add too much extra drag, may be even have the opposite effect as it covered the otherwise open bed which is not very aerodynamic. So probably everything else considered placing the hard top fuel wise was a wash.

Even if it were 10-12mpg I still think it is a ridiculous number for 2014. My first car, in the late 70s, was an early 70s Pontiac Catalina 400 which did 8-10mpg in the city and may be 11-12 on the highway. And even then it was considered a gas guzzler.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by avb3

I see no reason to buy an asset which depreciates so quickly in the first few years, vehicle or boat. I am glad, however, that there are people who for whatever personal reasons, buy new, so that there is a ready supply of used ones in the market place.

It makes sense for me, and I'm sure for whatever reason, it makes sense to those who buy new to them.

Ain't the world a wonderful place where diversity in opinion can mean everyone is correct in their own way?

Yup. While I mentioned we've bought both used and new cars, for the past 20 years we've bought new, because while you're right about the depreciation, we tend to use our cars for more than 10 years +/-. It's only been in the last decade or so that cars have become reliable enough to consider new, at least for us. Perhaps our next car will be a used one, since for the same price we can afford a higher end vehicle, but that won't be for another 8 years or so?

You're right, diversity is great. I still won't buy a new boat,though. Can't afford one.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Actually, this is incorrect. If the seller thinks it's worth $100 and the buyer only offers $50, the seller won't sell. Eventually someone may give ground (more likely both) but there is no guarantee it will be the seller who gives ground. If it's really worth it, the buyer will eventually pay the price.

But one must also factor in running costs of owning the boat which are $0 for the buyer until he buys but X for the seller until he sells. So that $100 the seller wants today if he has to spend another $20 until it is sold make the boat realistically worth $80 for the near future. And I agree, very few people can accept the boat's true value without much emotion.

When I was getting my 36 footer I was following 3 or 4 sister boats for sale at the time. All were priced considerably more but were in substantially the same shape except one which was fully redone and was asking X3 more. My seller told me that he too initially priced it "like everyone else" and had no offers for over a year or even longer. Once he dropped it to what my research and advise from knowledgeable sea salts felt was the magic number I matched his asking price without much haggling (other than some this and that to replace, altogether under $1K). I kept up with the other sister boats out of curiosity. None sold within the next year. All kept dropping their prices. One eventually, 4 yrs later (!!!), sold for $5K less than what I paid. Another 2 boats 2-3 years later went for about what I paid and one (the total refit) is still on the market but now for 1/2 of its asking price back then. Now if you calculate what the owners of those boats paid for the storage, upkeep, insurance, etc. in these extra years of trying to sell them they are way behind my seller even if they nominally got a little more money at the end.

[NOLA_sailing]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

My first car, in the late 70s, was an early 70s Pontiac Catalina 400 which did 8-10mpg in the city and may be 11-12 on the highway. And even then it was considered a gas guzzler.

The MPG for my Catalina varies greatly with wind speed and direction (or lack thereof)...

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

But one must also factor in running costs of owning the boat which are $0 for the buyer until he buys but X for the seller until he sells. So that $100 the seller wants today if he has to spend another $20 until it is sold make the boat realistically worth $80 for the near future. And I agree, very few people can accept the boat's true value without much emotion.

When I was getting my 36 footer I was following 3 or 4 sister boats for sale at the time. All were priced considerably more but were in substantially the same shape except one which was fully redone and was asking X3 more. My seller told me that he too initially priced it "like everyone else" and had no offers for over a year or even longer. Once he dropped it to what my research and advise from knowledgeable sea salts felt was the magic number I matched his asking price without much haggling (other than some this and that to replace, altogether under $1K). I kept up with the other sister boats out of curiosity. None sold within the next year. All kept dropping their prices. One eventually, 4 yrs later (!!!), sold for $5K less than what I paid. Another 2 boats 2-3 years later went for about what I paid and one (the total refit) is still on the market but now for 1/2 of its asking price back then. Now if you calculate what the owners of those boats paid for the storage, upkeep, insurance, etc. in these extra years of trying to sell them they are way behind my seller even if they nominally got a little more money at the end.

That was intended more towards the stock market comparison, where in general you would expect the price to keep rising for a profitable company.

As a depretiating asset with significant ongoing expenses, you are correct that a boat is different.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by NOLA_sailing

Not to play devil's advocate, but is it possible that the drag or lift created by the hardtop in the truck bed reduced your fuel efficiency?

My guess is the calculation is incorrect or he had one heck of a lead foot.

I get better than 8mpg with my 4door, long bed 4x4 F250 with the V-10...


Of course that's pulling a 28' 5th wheel (9-10mpg typically with 15mpg just driving around town)

[MarkSF]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

God please save me from Government regulation, as an Aviation mechanic / inspector / Commercial pilot / Test pilot / aircraft manufacturer, I've had my share, let me tell you Guvment regulation is only good for stifling an industry, it does not improve the product or safety

Ok, I can't let that slide. Over the decades since commercial air travel really began to boom, the accident rate has been driven down, and down, and down. How? Mainly thanks to the superb investigate work of the NTSB (a government agency), and their findings being fed back into industry regulation (government regulation) and the general pilot's knowledge base. As a result, air travel is about 10 times safer in western countries right now, than it is in third world countries and Asia. This has been a brilliant success story. The best indication of a country's commercial aviation safety, is the effectiveness of their accident investigation branch and regulatory body.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by avb3

I compare a boat to the cars/trucks/vans I have owned.

The last new one was bought when I was 21. My last car payment was made when I was 24. Every one of my vehicles have been used since then.

I see no reason to buy an asset which depreciates so quickly in the first few years, vehicle or boat. I am glad, however, that there are people who for whatever personal reasons, buy new, so that there is a ready supply of used ones in the market place.

It makes sense for me, and I'm sure for whatever reason, it makes sense to those who buy new to them.

Ain't the world a wonderful place where diversity in opinion can mean everyone is correct in their own way?

It took me much longer to come to that realization, first used car I bought in a very long time was a 97 Miata, I bought it as that was the last year of the pop up headlights and I had sold one my wife liked years ago and this one was to replace that one, that model was no longer available new, anyway the car was well maintained and has turned out to be an excellent little car, so why buy new and absorb all the depreciation?
I don't plan on every buying another new car, my airplanes have always been used as I just can't bring myself to buy a four place single engine airplane with fixed gear and pay over 400K.
No boats, cars, airplanes are all deprecating assets, best to let someone else eat the depreciation.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by sailorchic34

What is growing is the number of people that are living full time at anchorages. That number has tripled in the last 4 years.

I'm convinced the average Joe is drowning now, first the wives went to work and that kept the status quo for awhile, then they pulled the equity out of their houses. Now there is nothing left to pull from and since their income on average is pretty stagnant. Many are now finding alternate life styles so to speak. Subsistence living where you move to the back country and raise your food etc is booming, "tiny houses" where people essentially build a house like a Lowes utility barn is becoming popular and I am sure living at anchorages in boats too.
I don't care what the politicians say, it cost a lot more to live today than ten years ago, but I do not believe incomes are keeping up.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by MarkSF

Ok, I can't let that slide. Over the decades since commercial air travel really began to boom, the accident rate has been driven down, and down, and down. How? Mainly thanks to the superb investigate work of the NTSB (a government agency), and their findings being fed back into industry regulation (government regulation) and the general pilot's knowledge base. As a result, air travel is about 10 times safer in western countries right now, than it is in third world countries and Asia. This has been a brilliant success story. The best indication of a country's commercial aviation safety, is the effectiveness of their accident investigation branch and regulatory body.

And you base this no doubt on the Airlines, correct?
WTH has that got to do with the rest of aviation?
And I'll tell you as a little bit of an insider, safety has improved more in spite of the FAA, not because of it.
It is because of the FAA, that there is essentially do difference at all in a brand new general aviation engine and one that was made 50 yrs ago.

Next thing your going to tell me that automobiles are better because of the NHTSA

No, almost in every instance due to competitiveness between the manufacturers, products have improved, in spite of government regulation, not because of it. Whatever the consumer wants, he gets, and safety sells

[rbyham]

While boat ownership will never be cheap I think a major if not the major factor that limits those wishing to jump in is slip rental. Many can make the initial investment and more can handle the maintenance bill via diy, but that monthly nut piled on top unless you are liveaboard is a tough one to get over. Not sure what the solution is but once you go wet slip you can never go back to trailering.

[Yeti]

Originally Posted by rbyham

While boat ownership will never be cheap I think a major if not the major factor that limits those wishing to jump in is slip rental. Many can make the initial investment and more can handle the maintenance bill via diy, but that monthly nut piled on top unless you are liveaboard is a tough one to get over. Not sure what the solution is but once you go wet slip you can never go back to trailering.

This is a tough one.

When I first bought my boat I lived aboard and the liveabaord slip fee ($760) was reasonable as the boat was my residence. It was about 75% of the cost of an apartment. A year later and I find myself living at my girlfriends apartment and now my boat is on a mooring that costs me $140 a month. I can manage that just fine.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by MarkSF

Ok, I can't let that slide. Over the decades since commercial air travel really began to boom, the accident rate has been driven down, and down, and down. How? Mainly thanks to the superb investigate work of the NTSB (a government agency), and their findings being fed back into industry regulation (government regulation) and the general pilot's knowledge base. As a result, air travel is about 10 times safer in western countries right now, than it is in third world countries and Asia. This has been a brilliant success story. The best indication of a country's commercial aviation safety, is the effectiveness of their accident investigation branch and regulatory body.

Guvment regulation is only good for stifling an industry, it does not improve the product or safety

Yep, just ask the folks in Ohio whether they'd like the "Flaming" Cuyhoga River back. Even "my hero" Richard Nixon started the EPA.

There are undoubtedly many overzealous regulations, but to paint all of them as stifling is patently unfair, unrealistic and against facts.

Originally Posted by a64pilot

No, almost in every instance due to competitiveness between the manufacturers, products have improved, in spite of government regulation, not because of it. Whatever the consumer wants, he gets, and safety sells

WRONG. Didn't happen that way. The very regulations that automobile makers fought endlessly, like improved gas mileage and seat belts, have actually increased their sales.

The end result of unregulated capitalism is to end up killing the very consumers the industry need as customers.

Henry Ford had it right: Pay your workers enough to buy the product.

How's that workin' these days for the greedy 1%?

We take you back to regularly scheduled boating stuff...