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Old 26-07-2013, 15:43   #211
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

Humboldt current!?!?

So you guys really think Nina is more likely to end up off Peru than Australia?

I give up. I sure hope the families aren't listening to you.
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Old 26-07-2013, 16:04   #212
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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Originally Posted by opusnz View Post
Humboldt current!?!?

So you guys really think Nina is more likely to end up off Peru than Australia?

I give up. I sure hope the families aren't listening to you.
I'll be happy if they end up in Oz, because that will mean they are still able to sail their boat. It also means they are just slow and don't need rescued. If they are adrift there is a small chance that they are washed up on some desolate shoreline on the North Island of NZ. If they missed NZ they are most certainly on their way to Peru, but because of the Humboldt they'll never reach it. Mark and I have explained why we think they are east. I have yet to see anyone give a physical explanation of how they could end up west, assuming they are disabled and adrift either in the boat or in a raft. I would be happy to hear one if someone can come up with one. I will not accept examples of boats lost further north at the beginning of summer as proof. I want someone to explain how winds and currents could set them west at this time of year. I'm open to any explanation that is based on physical reality.
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Old 26-07-2013, 19:18   #213
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

Firstly, I am not a good sailor, But I get there,

I came across the Pacific and the Coral sea, Between Fiji and Bundaberg,

At night I would set the Genoa just a little bit, and drop my drive leg as an anchor,which kept the boat sailing straight,

The wind was constantly blowing to the North, The sea was going to the north and north west,
I would sail 25 miles to the north over night and then have to sail back the next day to get back to where I was the day before,

I was caught in the trade winds above Fiji and Vanuatu,
I made a mistake leaving Fiji, I should have come out of the bottom of Fiji, not the middle and gone north, Due to sleep,

I could not get my boat to sail South West, With out very heavy sailing and stressing my boat needlessly,

There are two big currents in the coral sea, One east, One west,

The middle of the Coral sea. It goes West.
The bottom of the coral sea it goes East,

I passed two ships, One on the west side of Vanuatu, one in the Coral sea,

Plenty of ships using the Shipping channels, near the east coast of OZ,

The Tasman was the worst ocean I travelled on, It has big nasty waves that are not describable,

3 or 4 metre waves and a crazy chop in the middle,

I tried for Port Maquarie, I was 12 miles south, In the eastern current, Northerly wind howling, I was doing 7 knots on the motor, The wind on the nose,

I was going backwards,
So I tried for Forster, I was losing my whole Dinghy and Supports, The welds had snapped off, It was about to drop into the ocean, Fancy, good looking welds dont stand up to real ocean conditions,

Those currents are quite clearly marked on my charts, and they are very strong currents, They will drag your boat any where they want to go,

With out sails or motor, You are a captive to the currents,

Top of NZ to the Coral sea is approx 1000 miles or there abouts, Its a hell of a big ocean,
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Old 26-07-2013, 19:59   #214
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

I just hope if I'm ever lost at sea...the rescuers USE REAL DATA and NOT pilot charts...

Till you guys go back and look at HISTORICAL DATA and not THEORETICAL data you are making yourselves look silly.
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Old 26-07-2013, 21:31   #215
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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Originally Posted by psneeld View Post
I just hope if I'm ever lost at sea...the rescuers USE REAL DATA and NOT pilot charts...

Till you guys go back and look at HISTORICAL DATA and not THEORETICAL data you are making yourselves look silly.
Hello?

I am sorry to inform you that Bill and I are correct... as are the pilot charts. Yes you will find eddies that go the other way, but generally there aint nuffin thaat goes from NZ to Australia.

Please click on the link to the CSIRO and scroll down to Tasman Sea CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research - Our Research
Also attached, below.

Quote:
Wind-blown from the east

New Zealand lies in the path of eastward-flowing currents, which are driven by winds that blow across the South Pacific Ocean. These winds – the south-east trades to the north, and the roaring forties to the south – drive water along the equator, down Australia’s east coast in the East Australian Current, and across the Tasman Sea. The flow splits around the western side of New Zealand and joins up again near the Chatham Rise, east of the South Island
1. Currents – Ocean currents and tides – Te Ara Encyclopedia of New Zealand
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Old 26-07-2013, 22:40   #216
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

I fail to see any current that could have pushed Nina east of NZ. The maps you show are crude generalizations and are also currents at depth, not the surface.

As I said before, the real time data is here with little arrows for current:

uv

You can click "uv" for a wide area and then click on any date.

Also as I said previously, the currents in the Tasman are much less in the winter. The real time data shows this. The currents in the middle of the Tasman are variable and about .25 m/s which is less than half a knot. The currents go in all directions with many eddies. Compare it to the summer if you want and you will see the currents are much stronger then.

The only appreciable easterly current in the winter is the East Australia Current. To get into it, you need to almost go to Australia and then go south to the latitude of Sydney before it turns east. Even then it only goes a bit before petering out or swirling north and back again....

Please show me the current or wind that could have pushed Nina east of NZ using the real time data.
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Old 27-07-2013, 04:28   #217
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

yep...every airline pilot I know looks up wind patterns from historical data...asking the tower what the winds are NOW for takeodff would be silly.

not saying you can't generalize...but every SAR mission I was on used REAL TIME wind/current data....
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Old 27-07-2013, 04:28   #218
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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Originally Posted by psneeld View Post
I just hope if I'm ever lost at sea...the rescuers USE REAL DATA and NOT pilot charts...

Till you guys go back and look at HISTORICAL DATA and not THEORETICAL data you are making yourselves look silly.
Although Pilot Charts do not necessarily represent current conditions; they ARE precisely Historical Data.
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Old 27-07-2013, 04:49   #219
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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Although Pilot Charts do not necessarily represent current conditions; they ARE precisely Historical Data.
OK ya got me on semantics...I meant till you use the weather and current data DURING THE TIME PERIOD of the SAR mission....then it's a crap shoot on how accurate your guess is.

Pilot charts are using decades or centuries of averages...not what was happening at the time people may have been drifting.

Surface current can be as much as 100% opposite as a prevailing current when the wind blows strong. Predicting drift is altered greatly using realtime data.
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Old 27-07-2013, 08:32   #220
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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I fail to see any current that could have pushed Nina east of NZ. The maps you show are crude generalizations and are also currents at depth, not the surface.

As I said before, the real time data is here with little arrows for current:

uv

You can click "uv" for a wide area and then click on any date.

Also as I said previously, the currents in the Tasman are much less in the winter. The real time data shows this. The currents in the middle of the Tasman are variable and about .25 m/s which is less than half a knot. The currents go in all directions with many eddies. Compare it to the summer if you want and you will see the currents are much stronger then.

The only appreciable easterly current in the winter is the East Australia Current. To get into it, you need to almost go to Australia and then go south to the latitude of Sydney before it turns east. Even then it only goes a bit before petering out or swirling north and back again....

Please show me the current or wind that could have pushed Nina east of NZ using the real time data.
Ok, I had a look at the real time current data. I saw nothing in it that would indicate a westward movement to a drifting object. Except in a couple of eddies the currents have an easterly component. They would actually be lucky if they got caught in an eddy as it would slow their easterly progress. There seems to be a strong and persistant eddy near their last reported position. It is possible that a floating object could get trapped in it. If they didn't get trapped in that eddy then they are most certainly east of their last position. If they are not in that eddy and they have missed the NZ coast then they are on their way to SA. My actual opinion is that there is only a very small chance they are still alive, but on that small chance the logical place to look is east, but I would rule out the eddy first just because it is a much smaller place to search.
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Old 27-07-2013, 12:54   #221
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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Hello?
Hello Mark,

Very good post. Do not assume though that many people will read in. The point is most will just glide over, esp. those that think they know better. Rejecting prior to reading is common these days and is not limited to clergy.

You can post relevant data over and over again but you will drown in the ocean of chatter, noise and uneducated misunderstandings.

Good try. I owe you a beer and it is not the first one.

barnakiel
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Old 27-07-2013, 16:11   #222
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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Hello Mark,

Very good post. Do not assume though that many people will read in. The point is most will just glide over, esp. those that think they know better. Rejecting prior to reading is common these days and is not limited to clergy.

You can post relevant data over and over again but you will drown in the ocean of chatter, noise and uneducated misunderstandings.

Good try. I owe you a beer and it is not the first one.

barnakiel
If you think "generic current charts" are the only relevant data...glad you never worked in my OPCEN....

Not to say they aren't good info to a point and that all these SAR threads are full of opinions that wouldn't find a fly in a cocktail glass.
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Old 27-07-2013, 16:14   #223
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What's the purpose. The sea took them , what's so hard to understand.

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Old 27-07-2013, 16:16   #224
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East west ? North South ? How about down ? The fact is if there is any flotsam from Nina it could be anywhere in the southern hemisphere. It's all very sad, but maybe a lesson to be learned.
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Old 27-07-2013, 18:55   #225
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Re: The (Official) "Lets Bash the Nina Thread" - sponsored by Bazzer :-)

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(...) glad you never worked in my OPCEN (...)
No problem. Never applied. With me, you see, it is the other way round: I elect with whom and for whom I work.

I too am sad with the news and, like some others, hope Niña and her crew will get to somewhere or get found. I know such stories do happen. It is only that with every passing day, their chances seem slimmer.

Frankly, the only posts that send me off somewhat are there where some of us claim that the boat should have had this or that onboard, that her skipper had no respect and other suchlikes. This is the sign of the times. Everything is taken care of, everything is insured. But this is not how life is, this is not where adventure is, this is not me. I am a dreamer. One that was lucky enough to be out there, doing sailing, in a boat that some of us would bash ...

Sursum corda.

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