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Old 05-08-2014, 15:18   #61
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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So moderators are not allowed to express their own opinion then?
I would respectfully hold moderators to a higher standard of discourse, and look to them for setting the example. That's all.

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I have the gravest doubts that this could be achieved given the conflicts around the world in the last 30 - 40 years. I suspect man will resolve the problem but not in a humane way.
Not doing anything guarantees failure.
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Old 05-08-2014, 15:18   #62
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

Indeed, the problem with trying to have a rational discussion on some of these subjects is that you invariably run into those who believe their limited observations validate whatever conclusion they dream up.

At any rate, I will try to be clearer. My observations span more than 30 years and include having written scientific papers on this very subject. Including the very first paper that provided evidence that microorganisms invade coral tissues.

My observations of diver behavior come from working with the single largest dive and sail operator in the FL Keys. We put hundreds upon hundreds of people on the reefs. If you have not captained a dive boat and served as a divemaster, you have no idea what you are talking about, when it comes to the subject of recreational divers. Sorry to tell you.

I am not an environmentalist. I am a sailor and diver. So, now, for the third time, and to make it simpler: there are things you can affect and things you cannot. Hurricanes are going to blow, whales will poop. Global climate change is another debate.

If you care to have a discussion on what can be done....that leaves us with things WE can do. If you do not think that people banging on the reef or dragging fishing line over it hurt the reef...then please go back to your beer. If you do....then there is a solution available to you...simply tell the people you know what not to do.

Simple. It will not solve the problem, but it is all any individual can do, and I assume we are all individuals here, not CEO's of multi-national corporations, and politicians.

If you have a better solution, based on what has been published in the scientific literature and from trained observation that is a little more meaningful that the few dives you have made, then, please, have at it.

Are we all good?

Thanks
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Old 05-08-2014, 15:23   #63
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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I just watched a bit of an episode of 'Enviropals' on PBS this morning showing their 'heroic' actions in getting rid of invading Parrot fish.. Must be those pesky brats then.
Invading parrotfish????????

Visit the GBR and see the massive schools of Parrotfish. Important part of the healthy ecosystem. Imagine the amount of coral a couple of hundred of the Giant humpheaded parrots can process.

Plenty of parrotfish over this way.

Feeding humphead parrotfish - Blue Planet - BBC - YouTube
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Old 05-08-2014, 16:00   #64
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"Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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From the same source:
Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone.

The trend for volume of Arctic sea ice is still downward. We need more than one or two abnormally cold winters in certain areas to prove the trend is wrong.

Then....by that same logic....don't we need more than ten or fifteen years of bad news to make a trend OF ANY KIND ??!? Plus it's been FIVE YEARS ....ALMOST SIX.....NOT TWO....You only seem to be seeing what you want to see....if doom and gloom is what you want ? Have at it....I'm done arguing with someone who keeps moving the goalpost.....
Done with you


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Old 05-08-2014, 16:22   #65
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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Invading parrotfish????????

Visit the GBR and see the massive schools of Parrotfish. Important part of the healthy ecosystem. Imagine the amount of coral a couple of hundred of the Giant humpheaded parrots can process.

Plenty of parrotfish over this way.

Feeding humphead parrotfish - Blue Planet - BBC - YouTube
I have no idea if Parrotfish are good bad or indifferent other than they get bad press on local TV here in Florida, but the cloying portrayal for indoctrination of kids on TV like on the 'oh so goody goody 'Enviropals' brats programme who are daily out there saving the planet singlehanded quite frankly sickens me. Kids should be informed but be allowed to make up their own minds, Brainwashing is brainwashing no matter who does it and whether in the name of religion or environmentalism. Interfering with the natural order of things seems all wrong to me, but then what do I know, just a dumb limey (or lamprey as my stoopid spellchecker corrected initially) that likes to sail.
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Old 05-08-2014, 16:24   #66
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

Interesting graph
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Old 05-08-2014, 16:35   #67
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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Then....by that same logic....don't we need more than ten or fifteen years of bad news to make a trend OF ANY KIND ??!?
Hey, it was your link.

I don't own any goalposts. I'm just looking (hoping) for those with genuine objections to the prevailing conclusions around AGW ,or the science behind them, to bring forward some compelling arguments. I'm a fool to look for them here, I guess.
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Old 05-08-2014, 16:41   #68
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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Hey, it was your link.

I don't own any goalposts. I'm just looking (hoping) for those with genuine objections to the prevailing conclusions around AGW ,or the science behind them, to bring forward some compelling arguments. I'm a fool to look for them here, I guess.
You seem hellbent in the pursuit of your foolishness it seems though.

Coops.
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Old 05-08-2014, 16:57   #69
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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You seem hellbent in the pursuit of your foolishness it seems though.
... Yes. I'll own that. Fair cop.

(Not windy enough to be out is the real problem, though.)

I read a great line about evolution today. Paraphrasing, it says; You don't 'believe' or 'not believe' in evolution; you either understand it or you don't.

Given the strong scientific consensus around AGW, I sort of consider it in those terms as well. It's happening, the only unknowns are what exactly the effects will be, and when, and what we can or should do about it.

Anyways. Coral. Others have made a pretty strong case for more immediate steps that will help reduce damage.
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Old 05-08-2014, 17:09   #70
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

This story was the topic of discussion on the Diane Rehm show today, if anyone cares to listen to the podcast;
The Environmental Outlook: The Health and Future of Our Coral Reefs | The Diane Rehm Show from WAMU and NPR
There is discussion on the varied reasons for their decline and some constructive ideas on what might be done. Poverty is considered a systemic cause among other things. It was pointed out that the USVI Nation Park has lost 80% of the coral population and had it been Redwoods in the Redwood forest……well there would be a larger percent of the general population concerned about it.
So my thinking is we could somehow get PADI and novice divers to switch gears and promote education and conservation on the topic. Certainly educating people and getting the word out is something all of us can do. The fishing industries in wealthy countries should certainly be concerned as well. Reducing our use of fertilizers helps. Fighting poverty takes more effort. There is quite a lot an individual can do to help improve the quality of the environment. There is no need to argue about why the state of the ocean is so poor, or to point fingers about how it got that way. The ocean environment is sick and needs recovery. I’d think that if the ocean, its varied species, its important role in weather patterns, its role in balancing c02, and in sustaining most all life forms on the planet we know, would be reason to make even a small effort to make it well again.
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Old 05-08-2014, 17:16   #71
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

You say there is a strong scientific consensus in favour of the belief/understanding. There is also no doubt a strong scientific consensus against it. You demand folks of the latter belief to prove their point to you. Why?

Why cannot you just accept that folks who do not believe in the doom and gloom point of view have as much right to believe in their readings and understandings as you do in yours? Calling them little put down tags like "deniers' does nothing to win them over to your argument at all, more likely to close their minds to it on principal.

I am an atheist by development. If a person mentions to me that he is religious, of any persuasion, I just accept that and we move on enjoying our conversation. I have no wish to argue with him that my opinions should be his, and I have certainly no wish to demean what he believes in. If, however, he wishes to try and force his beliefs on me, then we will go our separate ways immediately and we shall miss out on whatever else that we had in common and could have enjoyed in the discourse.

The same with this argument here. Why destroy a subject/thread by demanding that all see things the way that you do?

I do not mean this to be aimed specifically at you LE and apologise if it appears that way initially, but it seems that the eco evangelistic fervour adopted by some can actually be harmful to the cause and drive people away rather than selling the idea.

Coops.
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Old 05-08-2014, 17:51   #72
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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Invading parrotfish????????

Visit the GBR and see the massive schools of Parrotfish. Important part of the healthy ecosystem. Imagine the amount of coral a couple of hundred of the Giant humpheaded parrots can process.

Plenty of parrotfish over this way.

Feeding humphead parrotfish - Blue Planet - BBC - YouTube
Herbivory versus corallivory: are parrotfish good or bad for Caribbean coral reefs?
Quote:
August 2009
ABSTRACT
With coral cover in decline on many Caribbean reefs, any process of coral mortality is of potential concern. While sparisomid parrotfishes are major grazers of Caribbean reefs and help control algal blooms, the fact that they also undertake corallivory has prompted some to question the rationale for their conservation. Here the weight of evidence for beneficial effects of parrotfishes, in terms of reducing algal cover and facilitating demographic processes in corals, and the deleterious effects of parrotfishes in terms of causing coral mortality and chronic stress, are reviewed. While elevated parrotfish density will likely increase the predation rate upon juvenile corals, the net effect appears to be positive in enhancing coral recruitment through removal of macroalgal competitors. Parrotfish corallivory can cause modest partial colony mortality in the most intensively grazed species of Montastraea but the generation and healing of bite scars appear to be in near equilibrium, even when coral cover is low. Whole colony mortality in adult corals can lead to complete exclusion of some delicate, lagoonal species of Porites from forereef environments but is only reported for one reef species (Porites astreoides), for one habitat (backreef), and with uncertain incidence (though likely <<10%). No deleterious effects of predation on coral growth or fecundity have been reported, though recovery of zooxanthellae after bleaching events may be retarded. The balance of evidence to date finds strong support for the herbivory role of parrotfishes in facilitating coral recruitment, growth, and fecundity. In contrast, no net deleterious effects of corallivory have been reported for reef corals. Corallivory is unlikely to constrain overall coral cover but contraints upon dwindling populations of the Montastraea annularis species complex are feasible and the role of parrotfishes as a vector of coral disease requires evaluation. However, any assertion that conservation practices should guard against protecting corallivorous parrotfishes appears to be unwarranted at this stage.
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Old 05-08-2014, 18:01   #73
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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My experience is that the Bahamian reefs are dying at an alarming rate. The amount and variety of fish have gone way down, the remaining fish are smaller, and the dead coral/living coral ratio is getting greater. Of course, it may be part of some natural cycle that I am unaware of. Judging from the rate that I observe, it is not an unreasonable extrapolation that the Caribbean coral will be wiped out in 20 years.

The IUCN summary says that a main driver is the overfishing of parrotfish. That is surprising to me; I am unaware of the practice of taking parrotfish. Is that a real thing?

The actual report is weak on cause-and-effect interactions of the Caribbean ecosystem. The decline of the parrotfish may be due to factors other than fishing, such as exotic pathogens imported by freight ships, and exotic predators, such as lionfish. I have seen the lionfish population explode and I'm seeing bigger individuals as time goes on. No telling what I can't see.
Parrotfish to aid reef repair| BBC
Quote:
A vividly coloured fish could be the key to saving the Caribbean's coral reefs from plummeting into terminal decline, scientists claim.

Their research forecasts that reefs risk being damaged beyond repair by the influx of seaweed.
But urgent action such as protecting parrotfish, which graze upon the floral invaders, may prevent the ecosystems from reaching this tipping point..

The seaweed growth is boosted by human activity, such as fertilizers washing off from agricultural land into the coastal waters, and over-fishing, Professor Mumby explained.

"Then to compound these problems you have the climate stresses that are more and more inevitable now, which cause major problems with warming waters and hurricanes," he added...

One simple measure to prevent reefs from becoming damaged beyond repair, he said, would be to protect parrotfish that live around the reef.
"Parrotfish cruise around, grazing away much of the seaweed. They play a very important role in the ecosystem," the researcher explained.

However, these tropical fish are under threat. They are a sought-after delicacy in many parts of the Caribbean and are susceptible to becoming caught in fish traps.

Professor Mumby said: "We need to manage them as a fishery and maintain large numbers of these fish.

"The ability of a reef to recover is much more difficult if you remove parrotfish."
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Old 05-08-2014, 18:09   #74
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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August 2009
ABSTRACT
With coral cover in decline on many Caribbean reefs, any process of coral mortality is of potential concern. While sparisomid parrotfishes are major grazers of Caribbean reefs and help control algal blooms, the fact that they also undertake corallivory has prompted some to question the rationale for their conservation. Here the weight of evidence for beneficial effects of parrotfishes, in terms of reducing algal cover and facilitating demographic processes in corals, and the deleterious effects of parrotfishes in terms of causing coral mortality and chronic stress, are reviewed. While elevated parrotfish density will likely increase the predation rate upon juvenile corals, the net effect appears to be positive in enhancing coral recruitment through removal of macroalgal competitors. Parrotfish corallivory can cause modest partial colony mortality in the most intensively grazed species of Montastraea but the generation and healing of bite scars appear to be in near equilibrium, even when coral cover is low. Whole colony mortality in adult corals can lead to complete exclusion of some delicate, lagoonal species of Porites from forereef environments but is only reported for one reef species (Porites astreoides), for one habitat (backreef), and with uncertain incidence (though likely <<10%). No deleterious effects of predation on coral growth or fecundity have been reported, though recovery of zooxanthellae after bleaching events may be retarded. The balance of evidence to date finds strong support for the herbivory role of parrotfishes in facilitating coral recruitment, growth, and fecundity. In contrast, no net deleterious effects of corallivory have been reported for reef corals. Corallivory is unlikely to constrain overall coral cover but contraints upon dwindling populations of the Montastraea annularis species complex are feasible and the role of parrotfishes as a vector of coral disease requires evaluation. However, any assertion that conservation practices should guard against protecting corallivorous parrotfishes appears to be unwarranted at this stage.
Now that's interesting! A nicely balanced view of a delicate balance in a natural process.

Thanks for posting it.

Jim
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Old 05-08-2014, 18:12   #75
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Re: "Most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years"

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You say there is a strong scientific consensus in favour of the belief/understanding. There is also no doubt a strong scientific consensus against it. You demand folks of the latter belief to prove their point to you. Why?
There is absolutely no (nada, zilch) scientific consensus against global warming!!!

Scientific opinion on climate change | WIKIPEDIA


Quote:
Why cannot you just accept that folks who do not believe in the doom and gloom point of view have as much right to believe in their readings and understandings as you do in yours? Calling them little put down tags like "deniers' does nothing to win them over to your argument at all, more likely to close their minds to it on principal.
Calling a person a "denier" may in fact be a poor way to win a person to your point of view, but when it comes to empirical, scientific argument, there really is only one rational side to the debate.
Quote:
I am an atheist by development. If a person mentions to me that he is religious, of any persuasion, I just accept that and we move on enjoying our conversation. I have no wish to argue with him that my opinions should be his, and I have certainly no wish to demean what he believes in. If, however, he wishes to try and force his beliefs on me, then we will go our separate ways immediately and we shall miss out on whatever else that we had in common and could have enjoyed in the discourse.

The same with this argument here. Why destroy a subject/thread by demanding that all see things the way that you do?

I do not mean this to be aimed specifically at you LE and apologise if it appears that way initially, but it seems that the eco evangelistic fervour adopted by some can actually be harmful to the cause and drive people away rather than selling the idea.

Coops.
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