The Market Has Turned

[hellosailor]

Originally Posted by F51

HelloSailor has been pretty accurate in the past, but I also have a hard time believing that only 2,000 sailboats were sold last year. Maybe we missed something? Maybe HS could document his source? How about it?

F51, I feel no need to document someone else's statement. I'm quoting the article (URL) that was referred to. Feel free to check it out directly, iit may have been misphrased in the original. If there were only 2000 sailboats resold last year by brokers, and there are 500? 1000? full time brokers in the US, they'd really have to be hungry by now.

"Boat sales in Annapolis, Md., a renowned center for sailing, have hit a dry spot in recent months, with the subprime mortgage crisis " From the URL to the NPR 2007 page. Geez, you think if there's a MORTGAGE CRISIS you need to check th eboating industry first to find out if the economy is tanking??

That's what I love about "economics". If anyone really knew WTF they were talking about, they'd be filthy rich by using that knowledge. Oh, wait, that's right, all economists take a blood oath never to use their super-powers for their own enrichment. ROFLMAO, right?!

I'd heard that in normal good market years, there were only 10,000 sailboats (excluding the "boards") in all sold per year in the US. Haven't really looked into that because I'm not planning to buy in bulk, one's enough.

But with the US Treasury basically unable to sell T-Bills, the market jumping with every press release about anything under the sun, and most of the US haunted by folks out of work, worried about work, or shocked that the ponzi-scheme real estate resale market has collapsed...My only regret is that I didn't take a half million dollar zero-interest no-checkup loan before it all started, so I could have walked away and bought a Deerfoot. Or something in that class. DOH!

[beetlejuice30]

all back by nada

its backed by your birth certificate
when we took loans from china we gave them birth certificates, as equity

it would be my guess is that these are lumped up like mutual funds
and traded on the market

[hellosailor]

China?
Isn't that the country that tried to solve their population problem by aborting young female babies en masse? And then got a better idea, sell them to the wide-eyed barbarians for $50,000 to $100,000 a crack?

The way I see it, in another 10-15 years a lot of young Chinese men looking for ethnic Chinese brides are going to be coming to America. After the Chinese have paid the cost of educating them (which they are btw doing a really good job of).

Now's the time to start making that work to our advantage.

[TaoJones]

Here is the relevant sentence from the report:

"November unit sales were 2 percent higher, with 1,938 boats changing hands. That figure exceeded the five-year average for November by 60 boats - the first time in 2010 that a month's sales had beaten the average. Year-to-date unit sales have increased 9 percent from the first 11 months of 2009, with 27,900 boats sold."

Clearly, the 1938 boats reported to SoldBoats.com was the figure for the month of November, 2010, and the aggregate figure for 2010 is 27,900 boats sold through November.

TaoJones

[s/v 'Faith']

Originally Posted by sandy daugherty

see:Big-boat sales push brokerage valuations higher

If you've been waiting for the market to bottom out, it has happened. If the type of boat you have been looking for never reached your price, you will have to revise your plans. Just don't let the dream die.

I suspect you are right that the market is at (or very near) the bottom. I am not sure that it is because of a recovery, but the impending softening of the USD. The monetizing of the debt, and corresponding increase in the price of goods is likely to make this a good time to buy.

[hellosailor]

"Clearly, the 1938 boats reported to SoldBoats.com was the figure for the month of November"
Well, that's a relief!

I'd hate to think of a thousand brokers all starving come winter.

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by s/v 'Faith'

I suspect you are right that the market is at (or very near) the bottom. I am not sure that it is because of a recovery, but the impending softening of the USD. The monetizing of the debt, and corresponding increase in the price of goods is likely to make this a good time to buy.

Actually, the loss of purchasing power of the US dollar isn't impending, at all - it has been an engineered certainty since the founding of the Federal Reserve Board in 1913. Although the professed basis for the establishment of the Fed was to assure the trustworthiness of the US dollar, in practice it sees its purpose as assuring that its member banks stay in business and turn a profit.

So, how has it done at assuring the trustworthiness of the US dollar? A 2010 dollar has approximately 3% of the purchasing power of a 1913 dollar.

As far as now being a good time to buy tangible assets in anticipation of loss of purchasing power / increased prices later on - the only way to game that outcome is to buy on credit with as little capital as possible invested up front, a financing term as long as you can convince someone to provide and at a low rate of interest.

TaoJones

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by TaoJones

As far as now being a good time to buy tangible assets in anticipation of loss of purchasing power / increased prices later on - the only way to game that outcome is to buy on credit with as little capital as possible invested up front, a financing term as long as you can convince someone to provide and at a low rate of interest.

TaoJones

Like re-finance my house and buy a BIG boat now?

[s/v 'Faith']

No only is your reply reasonable... but I will add that it is FAR easier to go to wind on a sailboat then a bar of gold.

Originally Posted by TaoJones

Actually, the loss of purchasing power of the US dollar isn't impending, at all - it has been an engineered certainty since the founding of the Federal Reserve Board in 1913. Although the professed basis for the establishment of the Fed was to assure the trustworthiness of the US dollar, in practice it sees its purpose as assuring that its member banks stay in business and turn a profit.

So, how has it done at assuring the trustworthiness of the US dollar? A 2010 dollar has approximately 3% of the purchasing power of a 1913 dollar.

As far as now being a good time to buy tangible assets in anticipation of loss of purchasing power / increased prices later on - the only way to game that outcome is to buy on credit with as little capital as possible invested up front, a financing term as long as you can convince someone to provide and at a low rate of interest.

TaoJones

[beowulfborealis]

If the fed had any brains, they would have bundled up those toxic assets and sold 'em to the Chinese, instead of us. What the fed calls "Quantitative Easing" is going on big time right now. The money supply (the value of all cash, coin, and electronic value in banks) is about 10 trillion dollars. But the Fed wants to buy 600 billion in T-bills from the Treasury, since nobody else is buying that paper anymore. The funny thing is that people with a lot of assets, money, and income are doing great. I saw a report the other day that said the net worth of members of congress went UP like 17% last year. It might be because Charles Rangel got into some trouble for not reporting assets, and everyone is covering their backsides now. But its the working stiffs out there that are suffering major deflation on their homes, cars, businesses, and IRAs. I don't see it getting better any time soon for them. But wealthy people like Senator John Kerry who just bought a 7 million dollar yacht, are doing fine. In fact, Wall Street investment banks have had the two best years ever in 2009, and 2010. Strange how they needed to be bailed out in 2008. Something really smells if you ask me.

[Mambo]

Originally Posted by s/v 'Faith'

the impending softening of the USD.

Nothing "impending" about it. We're getting smoked!

[tsmwebb]

Originally Posted by beowulfborealis

...the Fed wants to buy 600 billion in T-bills from the Treasury, since nobody else is buying that paper anymore...

What are you talking about? The auctions have been going perfectly well--over-subscribed as usual. Lots of entities are willing to buy US bonds at very low rates. The fed is trying to deal with different problems -- "disinflation" and high unemployment -- using unconventional policies because they are at the zero bound. I think you may be confusing the bond buying with other Fed purchasing actions.

Why is this on a multihulls list anyway?

Tom

[boatman61]

The Boat Market will never change... what u can and what u cant....
Every time you look you'll see the one You want but cannot afford... and if you can you wont be reading this thread...

[maxingout]

Originally Posted by speakeasy

The stock market's up so folks feel richer and confidence rises, particularly if one drinks the koolaid passed around from the fed and the media. The fed is buying up toxic assets at a $5 billion a day clip that's going on our collective tab. Many if not most of that paper is only good for wiping your butt and will never be worth more in order to make the banks whole. In the next two years or longer we are going to continue to see sovereign debt crises abroad and eventually here. No government in history has paid off massive debt. They default. We owe them billions, listed as assets on their books and they owe us billions listed as assets on our books. All backed by nada.

Over half of US homes are underwater with inventory not shrinking. The financial system if now global, not local any longer. A butterfly flaps her wings and a chain reaction of events seemingly unrelated begins here. I suspect we'll see even lower boat prices ahead, but even if prices hold this plateau for a bit, they aren't going back up to peak prices of 5 years back. Neither will real estate, unless and until we begin to get a strong inflationary spiral. Then money will be worthless progressively and people will fling it at hard assets to try and preserve value. Bernanke has been successful so far in outlawing that, as he slowly smothers savers and old folks on fixed incomes with zero interest rates, while food, raw materials, metals and the like continue to increase in price at a 25% clip of speculation. This will not end well, IMHO.

I think you are right about what you are saying. Things are not sustainable the way they are. Something has got to give soon in the monetary system, and I don't think what happens is going to benefit the middle class. It may be a good time to surrender and get a small yacht and sail over the horizon.

[simonmd]

Here in Europe, the main factor that is holding the market back is lack of finance. Even people with a good credit rating and a reasonable income are getting turned down. You used to be able to get a proper 'boat mortgage' but that has all but been stopped now.

I am currently selling my motoryacht and have had a few good viewings, however, finance has been the sticking point so far and people like me are at the mercy of pure cash buyers. The boat market, like the property market, can't/won't recover until the banks start lending again.