Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 08-12-2010, 14:38   #16
֍֎֍֎֍֎֍֎֍֎

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 13,042
Quote:
Originally Posted by F51 View Post
HelloSailor has been pretty accurate in the past, but I also have a hard time believing that only 2,000 sailboats were sold last year. Maybe we missed something? Maybe HS could document his source? How about it?
F51, I feel no need to document someone else's statement. I'm quoting the article (URL) that was referred to. Feel free to check it out directly, iit may have been misphrased in the original. If there were only 2000 sailboats resold last year by brokers, and there are 500? 1000? full time brokers in the US, they'd really have to be hungry by now.

"Boat sales in Annapolis, Md., a renowned center for sailing, have hit a dry spot in recent months, with the subprime mortgage crisis " From the URL to the NPR 2007 page. Geez, you think if there's a MORTGAGE CRISIS you need to check th eboating industry first to find out if the economy is tanking??

That's what I love about "economics". If anyone really knew WTF they were talking about, they'd be filthy rich by using that knowledge. Oh, wait, that's right, all economists take a blood oath never to use their super-powers for their own enrichment. ROFLMAO, right?!

I'd heard that in normal good market years, there were only 10,000 sailboats (excluding the "boards") in all sold per year in the US. Haven't really looked into that because I'm not planning to buy in bulk, one's enough.

But with the US Treasury basically unable to sell T-Bills, the market jumping with every press release about anything under the sun, and most of the US haunted by folks out of work, worried about work, or shocked that the ponzi-scheme real estate resale market has collapsed...My only regret is that I didn't take a half million dollar zero-interest no-checkup loan before it all started, so I could have walked away and bought a Deerfoot. Or something in that class. DOH!
__________________

__________________
hellosailor is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 14:47   #17
Registered User

Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Florida on my boat
Boat: catalina 1985 30 -Hello over there
Posts: 107
all back by nada

its backed by your birth certificate
when we took loans from china we gave them birth certificates, as equity

it would be my guess is that these are lumped up like mutual funds
and traded on the market
__________________

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch, Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote." Ben Franklin
beetlejuice30 is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 15:00   #18
֍֎֍֎֍֎֍֎֍֎

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 13,042
China?
Isn't that the country that tried to solve their population problem by aborting young female babies en masse? And then got a better idea, sell them to the wide-eyed barbarians for $50,000 to $100,000 a crack?

The way I see it, in another 10-15 years a lot of young Chinese men looking for ethnic Chinese brides are going to be coming to America. After the Chinese have paid the cost of educating them (which they are btw doing a really good job of).

Now's the time to start making that work to our advantage.
__________________
hellosailor is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 15:16   #19
CF Adviser
Moderator Emeritus
 
TaoJones's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Montrose, Colorado
Posts: 9,850
Here is the relevant sentence from the report:

"November unit sales were 2 percent higher, with 1,938 boats changing hands. That figure exceeded the five-year average for November by 60 boats - the first time in 2010 that a month's sales had beaten the average. Year-to-date unit sales have increased 9 percent from the first 11 months of 2009, with 27,900 boats sold."

Clearly, the 1938 boats reported to SoldBoats.com was the figure for the month of November, 2010, and the aggregate figure for 2010 is 27,900 boats sold through November.

TaoJones
__________________
"Your vision becomes clear only when you look into your own heart. Who looks outside, dreams; who looks within, awakens."
Carl Gustav Jung (1875-1961)
TaoJones is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 15:21   #20
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Cruising NC, FL, Bahamas, TCI & VIs
Boat: 1964 Pearson Ariel 'Faith' / Pearson 424, sv Emerald Tide
Posts: 1,531
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandy daugherty View Post
see:Big-boat sales push brokerage valuations higher

If you've been waiting for the market to bottom out, it has happened. If the type of boat you have been looking for never reached your price, you will have to revise your plans. Just don't let the dream die.
I suspect you are right that the market is at (or very near) the bottom. I am not sure that it is because of a recovery, but the impending softening of the USD. The monetizing of the debt, and corresponding increase in the price of goods is likely to make this a good time to buy.
__________________
s/v 'Faith' is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 15:39   #21
֍֎֍֎֍֎֍֎֍֎

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 13,042
"Clearly, the 1938 boats reported to SoldBoats.com was the figure for the month of November"
Well, that's a relief!

I'd hate to think of a thousand brokers all starving come winter.
__________________
hellosailor is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 15:48   #22
CF Adviser
Moderator Emeritus
 
TaoJones's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Montrose, Colorado
Posts: 9,850
Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v 'Faith' View Post
I suspect you are right that the market is at (or very near) the bottom. I am not sure that it is because of a recovery, but the impending softening of the USD. The monetizing of the debt, and corresponding increase in the price of goods is likely to make this a good time to buy.
Actually, the loss of purchasing power of the US dollar isn't impending, at all - it has been an engineered certainty since the founding of the Federal Reserve Board in 1913. Although the professed basis for the establishment of the Fed was to assure the trustworthiness of the US dollar, in practice it sees its purpose as assuring that its member banks stay in business and turn a profit.

So, how has it done at assuring the trustworthiness of the US dollar? A 2010 dollar has approximately 3% of the purchasing power of a 1913 dollar.

As far as now being a good time to buy tangible assets in anticipation of loss of purchasing power / increased prices later on - the only way to game that outcome is to buy on credit with as little capital as possible invested up front, a financing term as long as you can convince someone to provide and at a low rate of interest.

TaoJones
__________________
"Your vision becomes clear only when you look into your own heart. Who looks outside, dreams; who looks within, awakens."
Carl Gustav Jung (1875-1961)
TaoJones is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 15:58   #23
Senior Cruiser
 
Therapy's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: W Florida
Boat: The Jon boat still, plus a 2007 SeaCat.
Posts: 6,894
Images: 4
Quote:
Originally Posted by TaoJones View Post

As far as now being a good time to buy tangible assets in anticipation of loss of purchasing power / increased prices later on - the only way to game that outcome is to buy on credit with as little capital as possible invested up front, a financing term as long as you can convince someone to provide and at a low rate of interest.

TaoJones
Like re-finance my house and buy a BIG boat now?
__________________
Therapy is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 15:58   #24
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Cruising NC, FL, Bahamas, TCI & VIs
Boat: 1964 Pearson Ariel 'Faith' / Pearson 424, sv Emerald Tide
Posts: 1,531
No only is your reply reasonable... but I will add that it is FAR easier to go to wind on a sailboat then a bar of gold.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TaoJones View Post
Actually, the loss of purchasing power of the US dollar isn't impending, at all - it has been an engineered certainty since the founding of the Federal Reserve Board in 1913. Although the professed basis for the establishment of the Fed was to assure the trustworthiness of the US dollar, in practice it sees its purpose as assuring that its member banks stay in business and turn a profit.

So, how has it done at assuring the trustworthiness of the US dollar? A 2010 dollar has approximately 3% of the purchasing power of a 1913 dollar.

As far as now being a good time to buy tangible assets in anticipation of loss of purchasing power / increased prices later on - the only way to game that outcome is to buy on credit with as little capital as possible invested up front, a financing term as long as you can convince someone to provide and at a low rate of interest.

TaoJones
__________________
s/v 'Faith' is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 16:12   #25
Registered User
 
beowulfborealis's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 89
If the fed had any brains, they would have bundled up those toxic assets and sold 'em to the Chinese, instead of us. What the fed calls "Quantitative Easing" is going on big time right now. The money supply (the value of all cash, coin, and electronic value in banks) is about 10 trillion dollars. But the Fed wants to buy 600 billion in T-bills from the Treasury, since nobody else is buying that paper anymore. The funny thing is that people with a lot of assets, money, and income are doing great. I saw a report the other day that said the net worth of members of congress went UP like 17% last year. It might be because Charles Rangel got into some trouble for not reporting assets, and everyone is covering their backsides now. But its the working stiffs out there that are suffering major deflation on their homes, cars, businesses, and IRAs. I don't see it getting better any time soon for them. But wealthy people like Senator John Kerry who just bought a 7 million dollar yacht, are doing fine. In fact, Wall Street investment banks have had the two best years ever in 2009, and 2010. Strange how they needed to be bailed out in 2008. Something really smells if you ask me.
__________________
beowulfborealis is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 16:17   #26
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: USA
Boat: Cape Dory
Posts: 439
USD

Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v 'Faith' View Post
the impending softening of the USD.
Nothing "impending" about it. We're getting smoked!
__________________
Mambo is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 17:06   #27
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Hawaii
Boat: Atlantic 42 Catamaran
Posts: 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by beowulfborealis View Post
...the Fed wants to buy 600 billion in T-bills from the Treasury, since nobody else is buying that paper anymore...
What are you talking about? The auctions have been going perfectly well--over-subscribed as usual. Lots of entities are willing to buy US bonds at very low rates. The fed is trying to deal with different problems -- "disinflation" and high unemployment -- using unconventional policies because they are at the zero bound. I think you may be confusing the bond buying with other Fed purchasing actions.

Why is this on a multihulls list anyway?

Tom
__________________
tsmwebb is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 17:30   #28
Freelance Delivery Skipper..
 
boatman61's Avatar

Community Sponsor
Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK/Portugal
Posts: 20,209
Images: 2
Send a message via Skype™ to boatman61
pirate

The Boat Market will never change... what u can and what u cant....
Every time you look you'll see the one You want but cannot afford... and if you can you wont be reading this thread...
__________________


Born To Be Wild
boatman61 is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 18:33   #29
Senior Cruiser
 
maxingout's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Fort Pierce, Phoenix
Boat: Privilege 39 Catamaran, Exit Only
Posts: 2,606
Quote:
Originally Posted by speakeasy View Post
The stock market's up so folks feel richer and confidence rises, particularly if one drinks the koolaid passed around from the fed and the media. The fed is buying up toxic assets at a $5 billion a day clip that's going on our collective tab. Many if not most of that paper is only good for wiping your butt and will never be worth more in order to make the banks whole. In the next two years or longer we are going to continue to see sovereign debt crises abroad and eventually here. No government in history has paid off massive debt. They default. We owe them billions, listed as assets on their books and they owe us billions listed as assets on our books. All backed by nada.

Over half of US homes are underwater with inventory not shrinking. The financial system if now global, not local any longer. A butterfly flaps her wings and a chain reaction of events seemingly unrelated begins here. I suspect we'll see even lower boat prices ahead, but even if prices hold this plateau for a bit, they aren't going back up to peak prices of 5 years back. Neither will real estate, unless and until we begin to get a strong inflationary spiral. Then money will be worthless progressively and people will fling it at hard assets to try and preserve value. Bernanke has been successful so far in outlawing that, as he slowly smothers savers and old folks on fixed incomes with zero interest rates, while food, raw materials, metals and the like continue to increase in price at a 25% clip of speculation. This will not end well, IMHO.

I think you are right about what you are saying. Things are not sustainable the way they are. Something has got to give soon in the monetary system, and I don't think what happens is going to benefit the middle class. It may be a good time to surrender and get a small yacht and sail over the horizon.
__________________
Dave -Sailing Vessel Exit Only

http://SailingUNI.com
http://maxingout.com
http://PositiveThinkingSailor.com
maxingout is offline  
Old 08-12-2010, 20:23   #30
Registered User
 
simonmd's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sant Carles, S Spain
Boat: 30ft Catalac 900 "Rubessa"
Posts: 876
Here in Europe, the main factor that is holding the market back is lack of finance. Even people with a good credit rating and a reasonable income are getting turned down. You used to be able to get a proper 'boat mortgage' but that has all but been stopped now.

I am currently selling my motoryacht and have had a few good viewings, however, finance has been the sticking point so far and people like me are at the mercy of pure cash buyers. The boat market, like the property market, can't/won't recover until the banks start lending again.
__________________

__________________
Previous owner of a 1994 Catalac 900, now sadly SOLD
simonmd is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Buyer's Market or Seller's Market ? rourkeh Dollars & Cents 31 11-10-2010 11:52
Turned to the Dark Side swagman Europe & Mediterranean 15 08-09-2010 13:52
Just Turned 62 (Woo-Hoo) - My Life Is Mine! Bill Burgette Meets & Greets 8 29-10-2009 19:23
The alternator gets turned off. mestrezat Electrical: Batteries, Generators & Solar 1 12-12-2008 06:21
Manta Display at Miami Show 2008, why I was turned off Turnone Multihull Sailboats 34 21-02-2008 08:41



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 19:48.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.