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Old 09-03-2008, 09:44   #1
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Good Destinations in Event of Global Economic Depression?

I was reading an article online last night concerning the imminent collapse of the U.S. economy (they predicted 3rd quarter of 08) and was wondering if this did happen what would you pick to be the best destinations to weather the storm... especially considering the economic, political, etc. effects it would have on the destination country?
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Old 09-03-2008, 10:26   #2
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I was reading an article online last night concerning the imminent collapse of the U.S. economy (they predicted 3rd quarter of 08) and was wondering if this did happen what would you pick to be the best destinations to weather the storm... especially considering the economic, political, etc. effects it would have on the destination country?

I'm not an economist or anything just a normal joe blow who reads the news. It is my humble opinion that the US economy has already collapsed and anybody who would argue against that is kidding themselves.
But where to ride out the storm? Forget Europe the US dollar cant buy too many Euros these days same with Canada plus it's too cold. Maybe Cuba I'll bet they still love a dollar down there, maybe Dominican republic or Venezula or how about the next superpower China? Plus you can watch the Olympics while your there.
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Old 09-03-2008, 11:13   #3
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The economy IS going to collapse. The question is whether or not the US Govt. and Fed can push short term band aids large enough to yet again push this collapse off a few more years into the future. They are pulling out all stops.... even to the point of literally passing out money (both to individuals and to banks).

But it even if this does work, it won't work for long. There is no escaping the impact of $50 Trillion in debt and $1 Trillion + annual deficits. The credit markets collapse will at some point become complete when it spreads to include US Treasury Bonds.

As to where to go..... This is something I have and do give a great deal of thought too. New Zealand? Marshall Islands? As China and India continue to expand their new wealthy and middle classes will become active tourists. I think this could be a boon for beautiful, pristine places that are not too far off. Also, perhaps some of those places would be less susceptible to a depression of their own in response to the US collapse?

Another key thing to consider is where to place assets to avoid having your cruising kitty hyperinflated to nothing. As entitlement shortfalls explode over the next 5+ years, it is not a question of if the US will monetize its debt its just when.



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Old 09-03-2008, 12:00   #4
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As to where to go..... This is something I have and do give a great deal of thought too. New Zealand? Marshall Islands? As China and India continue to expand their new wealthy and middle classes will become active tourists. I think this could be a boon for beautiful, pristine places that are not too far off. Also, perhaps some of those places would be less susceptible to a depression of their own in response to the US collapse?


Terry
Hmmm... I think such places would quickly become "un-beautiful, un-pristine". Not sure it this would be a boon but agree that some would find that to be economically advantageous.
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Old 09-03-2008, 12:04   #5
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Originally Posted by Tspringer View Post
The economy IS going to collapse. The question is whether or not the US Govt. and Fed can push short term band aids large enough to yet again push this collapse off a few more years into the future. They are pulling out all stops.... even to the point of literally passing out money (both to individuals and to banks).

But it even if this does work, it won't work for long. There is no escaping the impact of $50 Trillion in debt and $1 Trillion + annual deficits. The credit markets collapse will at some point become complete when it spreads to include US Treasury Bonds.

As to where to go..... This is something I have and do give a great deal of thought too. New Zealand? Marshall Islands? As China and India continue to expand their new wealthy and middle classes will become active tourists. I think this could be a boon for beautiful, pristine places that are not too far off. Also, perhaps some of those places would be less susceptible to a depression of their own in response to the US collapse?

Another key thing to consider is where to place assets to avoid having your cruising kitty hyperinflated to nothing. As entitlement shortfalls explode over the next 5+ years, it is not a question of if the US will monetize its debt its just when.



Terry
It is good to know we have a prophet on the board so maybe we can get Terry to post the lottery numbers on the board for the big drawings. The US or any economy is anybodies guess at any time and some folks will be right and some will be wrong. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. In any economy some make money and some lose no matter where you live. You can pack up your cash and move to another country and the next day the government is overthrown and your funds are seized and you are imprisoned as an enemy of the state. That can even happen in the good old USA. Not a political point guys, but trying to make the point that no place is 100% safe and no one can foresee the future. You can plan your investments safely, relatively speaking, for economic downturns withour hiding your money in a mattress in a jungle hut. A good experienced money manager can help with that better than advise on a cruising forum. having said all of that we have friends that could not live on their retirement in places like the US, Canada or Europe. They now live quite well and very happily in Panama, Guatemala, and Costa Rico. Their money goes a lot farther, FOR NOW the governments are stable and there are large American communities there so they don't feel too home sick.
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Old 09-03-2008, 12:08   #6
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Three of us ( 2 Americans & 1 English) were discussing this same thing last night during happy hour in our marina in southern Spain. We all decided the best place to be was on a sailboat. The dollar may be incredibly weak, but our berth is still only $300 a month and the food is great and not expensive. And a good bottle of wine is under $6. Others plan to move to Turkey where it's warmer and even cheaper. With a boat it's possible to be almost anywhere.
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Old 09-03-2008, 12:10   #7
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The FairTax would resolve this.
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Old 09-03-2008, 12:16   #8
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Another thread followed this theme and was eventually closed. Post wisely!

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Old 09-03-2008, 12:41   #9
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Originally Posted by Captkev View Post
I was reading an article online last night concerning the imminent collapse of the U.S. economy (they predicted 3rd quarter of 08) and was wondering if this did happen what would you pick to be the best destinations to weather the storm... especially considering the economic, political, etc. effects it would have on the destination country?
Well if you read it online it must be 100% accurate. I am going to rush to the bank and withdraw all my money tomorrow when and if it opens. Hopefully I will beat the rush and the vaults won't be empty. While a recession may be very likely it is hardly an economic collapse. Let's try and keep the economic soothsaying out of it and keep the focus on places to go where the weaker dollar will go a little farther.
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Old 09-03-2008, 13:28   #10
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Good destinations in event of global economic depression?

Probably the same destinations as I have always liked. Protected anchorage, good holding, nice shoreline, a couple of other boats (but not too many), fine weather with good sailing breeze, a small town a day or so's sailing away, no internet access. This is my reason for sailing but I am sure there are just as many other valid reasons and so destinations.
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Old 09-03-2008, 13:30   #11
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We're definitely going through a "bump in the road" right now, but capitalism and free enterprise are resilient, especially when the poliiticians are limited in their ability to mess things up.

What we're going through now is somewhat reminiscent of the savings and loan debacle of the late 80's followed by the recession that contributed to the first George Bush's reelection loss.

And this is nothing compared to the nightmares we went through the first few years of this decade ("y 2 k" paranoia; '2000 election & the supreme court'; 9/11 and the economic meltdown following; SARs outbreak; DC sniper; Anthrax in the mail; Enron/Worldcom/etc.; Iraq war; etc. etc.

The boat construction and charter businesses suffered body blows during those years.

Long term, the fundamentals prevail -- we're part of an ever-increasing population that need goods and services, and almost all those goods and services get used up or worn out and must be replaced or repaired. And the businesses that offer those goods and services efficiently and at a profit keep growing and making money.

But, it all goes in cycles, and it's usually geopolitical events that mess things up.

No way to know how bad or painful this downstretch will be, but we'll adapt and compete -- KEEP THE FAITH !!!

And for those that have the cash to invest, these market pullbacks create great buying opportunites.
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Old 09-03-2008, 13:51   #12
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Well if you read it online it must be 100% accurate. I am going to rush to the bank and withdraw all my money tomorrow when and if it opens. Hopefully I will beat the rush and the vaults won't be empty. While a recession may be very likely it is hardly an economic collapse. Let's try and keep the economic soothsaying out of it and keep the focus on places to go where the weaker dollar will go a little farther.
The level of sarcasm in this post is bizarre.

If you read my post again (with a clear head) you'll see that the focus is the question-What would be a good destination if this DID happen and not "economic soothsaying" (which you then go into yourself)

Again, I'm not looking for everyone's opinion about the U.S.,the current monarchy,whether Hillary Clinton is the antichrist (Obama is!) blah,blah,blah

More like if this DID happen...no matter how outrageously unlikely it is- what in your opinion would be the best places to be. Not so much to get the most for your money, but good people, good climate, good goverment etc.
Thanks!
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Old 09-03-2008, 13:55   #13
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I think we should all sell our boats, hide the money in our matress, and never leave the house again. Then we'd all be completely secure financially and otherwise and life would be wonderful. LOL
I'm going sailing. Someone call me and let me know when the world ends.
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Old 09-03-2008, 14:00   #14
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Captkev, Read all of my post, especially the last part and you will see a couple of recommendations.
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Old 09-03-2008, 14:05   #15
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A couple of things to remember about decamping to the 3rd world is that.........they also have inflation and their currencies can also appreciate.
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