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Old 17-03-2008, 11:22   #76
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Here chick, chick.

Have we finally found "Chicken Little?

Gee, if the sky really does fall, what will my sailboat be worth?

Let's see, if the costs of everything becomes more astronomical as "things go up" because of dollars going down, the person with "the most things" may end up the winner after all.

So in the "Rat Race" the "rats" really have won.

What a depressing batch of commentaries......
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Old 17-03-2008, 11:25   #77
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Originally Posted by Steve Rust View Post
Somewhat tongue in cheek but what is the point in discussing extremely unlikely,worst case, read it on the internet scenarios, other than for entertainment purposes.

Well, to take a line from my days in Physics: These are thought experiments.

Not really any different than our "surviving the killer storm" threads. Probably none of us will ever get caught in a life-threatening storm (due to good weather data, etc...), but we still might want to know what to do if ever caught in one.

I think that's why we discuss these issues.
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Old 17-03-2008, 11:49   #78
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Hey, maybe all the charter boats will disappear from the Caribbean, then the locals might be pleased to see a few impoverished yotties. See, not all bad, is it?
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Old 17-03-2008, 12:13   #79
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Originally Posted by HAwkcharter View Post
Gee, if the sky really does fall, what will my sailboat be worth?
Let's see, if the costs of everything becomes more astronomical as "things go up" because of dollars going down, the person with "the most things" may end up the winner after all.
So in the "Rat Race" the "rats" really have won.
What a depressing batch of commentaries......
Only if the Rat has accumulated the right things.

If we were talking an “end of days” collapse of civilization, only “useful things” would have increased value.
Formerly expensive designer clothes, jewelry, and Ferrari’s would have little practical utility, and thus little value.
Food and water, being the essential elements that all human beings must have in order to live , would have an appropriately higher value.
Given a finite ability to store these essentials, the means of acquiring new supplies of food and water would also have high value. These means would include growing and catching implements and skills.

I’d recommend investing in education, as the human brain can store many more skills, than even the largest yacht could store provisions or hardware.

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Hey, maybe all the charter boats will disappear from the Caribbean, then the locals might be pleased to see a few impoverished yotties. See, not all bad, is it?
Yes, I'm certain the locals will welcome we who come to catch their fish, eat their fruit, and crap in their waters.
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Old 17-03-2008, 12:14   #80
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Does anyone actually think, that the country that controls 60% of the worlds wealth(USA), can go through an economic downfall without the other countries in the world suffering some dificulties?
Yep! Because as I said earlier, it's a different time and different world today. The US no longer has the same controll. Many NZ companies are already heading toward buying and selling using the Euro. It is only the US that is sinking at the mo. And the suction is dragging down any country that is tied to it. But this time many countries will cut the ties and drift. There is no hold anylonger. NZ is starting to do it and I can assure you that the rest of the world will soon follow. It is simply narrow minded tunnel visioned thinking to think the US has any global influence to the point where countries are going to go down with it in todays Global economy. You watch them all bail soon.
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Old 17-03-2008, 12:52   #81
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It is simply narrow minded tunnel visioned thinking to think the US has any global influence to the point where countries are going to go down with it in todays Global economy. You watch them all bail soon.
I agree that we americans are narrow minded and I hate the fact that our BIG attitude is what got us in this mess in the first place. Major markets understand that although they may not go down with our market that we would significantly impair theirs to the point they will try to bail us out, not jump ship. Like I posted earlier New Zealand was a major player along with japan, US, UK and a few others in bailing out the Euro in its early stages. We as a global market have to be balanced or the ripple effect will be felt far and wide.

NZD news today:
17:59 GMT March 17th The Kiwi opened at 0.8030 in NY and aside from a brief bounce early in the session, continued to come under selling pressure as specs unwound JPY carry trades and with a sharp fall in commodities weighing on dollar bloc currencies. The commodities were sold for two reasons, on fears of a global slowdown and reportedly due to profit-taking as investors used the proceeds to offset carry trades. The CRB, base metals, and Baltic Dry Index were all lower with the slump in the US NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index and the fall in US industrial production raising fears of a US slowdown that will feed through
to lower global growth.
NZD/USD triggered stops under 0.7950 in the afternoon to trade to 0.7922. 0.7900 and 0.7870/75 are the next support levels.


The NZD/USD is down from .8204 to current .7960

Thank you for hosting a wonderful forum. Although this indirectly pertains to sailing, I appreciate you allowing it to "float" .


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Old 17-03-2008, 14:50   #82
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Reasons to worry about the IMPENDING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE and one possible WAY OUT.

A. The U.S. economy collapses and you and your boat are still in the U.S. Your boat is taken over by squatters, looted, or stolen by someone with a bigger gun than you.
B. You manage to get out of the U.S. but the collapse of the U.S. economy has triggered a global collapse. The country you flee to may have a less developed economy and has been hit even harder. You look pretty well off with your fancy shiny boat to the desperate locals. Your boat is taken over by squatters, looted, or stolen by someone with a bigger gun than you.
C. You manage to get out of the U.S. with your money. You arrive someplace that has managed to stave off the collapse but you find out that not many people want your now worthless dollars. It takes a suitcase full to buy a few gallons of diesel fuel or food for a few days. Your safe haven is eventually overrun with even more refugees. Your boat is taken over by squatters, looted, or stolen by someone with a bigger gun than you.
D. You arrive at some undiscovered tropical paradise and live off the land like..........yeah, right.
E. You have the biggest gun around.....you might just be alright.

Somewhat tongue in cheek but what is the point in discussing extremely unlikely,worst case, read it on the internet scenarios, other than for entertainment purposes.

Exactly what I have been thinking. Especially D.


With the US as the biggest consumer, if it's dollar can't buy stuff then stuff won't be bought. Just who are the sellers going to sell to then?
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Old 17-03-2008, 14:58   #83
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[QUOTE=delmarrey;141564]Another thread followed this theme and was eventually closed. Post wisely!

Interesting thread, to say the least. Certainly these types of discussions might become a little touchy.
I am curious as to why the earlier thread was discontinued. (admin.??)

It's interesting to hear what folks think in terms of options for locales and their rationale.

Maybe a floating nation of cruisers would be a good choice. We could develop our own economy based on boat stuff and services. Who would like to be Head Skipper?

As for myself (and politics aside), I can be poor anywhere.

cheers,
m.m.
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Old 17-03-2008, 15:03   #84
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Just another note:......
When it all comes down, here is what will be "valuable"

spices and incense.
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Old 17-03-2008, 17:14   #85
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I just heard Larry Kudlow from CNBC, (a financial channel in the USA) on the radio.
He has a lot of experience in the finance world and he says when everybody is screaming that it's the end of the world as we know it (like now) it usually marks the bottom of the economic cycle. Something to think about.

As for what to do in a downturn when you expect an inflationary cycle to come, if you have a good secure job, buy stuff on a fixed interest rate and pay back later with cheapo dollars. This happened to us in the late '70's. We bought waterfront land in 1970 which seemed way expensive at the time. We then built a house a stick at a time as we acquired the money. By the time it was done, we would have been better off charging everything at first to build it quickly even with the interest payments.

When we paid off the land mortgage several years later, the inflation had lessened the financial hit caused by the monthly payment so much that it was almost laughable.

Steve B.
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Old 17-03-2008, 17:51   #86
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It's going to be interesting to see how the current economic chaos plays out.

But, be careful about assuming the Euro will maintain its current strength and momentum. When it was first created it's value was 115 to the dollar; it then dropped to as low as about 85 per dollar before it began its nice run to current levels.

So far the ECB (the group that determines European interest rates) has chosen to keep interest rates relatively high. The result is that the Euro is prospering, but most European stock markets are down several per cent more than the U.S. stock markets, and unemployment is much higher in most European countries than in the US.

In the US, the Fed (the group that determines US interest rates) has chosen to err on the side of lower interest rates to try to avoid a recession and keep people working. And, the problems the US faces are exaggerated by too much "easy" money being loaned in recent years to non-creditworthy borrowers and its many ramifications -- it will cause a good bit of pain for awhile, but it will work its way out.

If/when the current cycles reverse, and in time they probably will, the dollar will strengthen and the Euro will retreat, as will oil and gold prices.

Granted, the world is less economically dependent on the U.S. (though last night's/today's very large drops in Asian and European stock markets suggest there may not be as much unlinking as many thought), and there's more interdependence between more countries than almost any time in modern history -- and both of those are good things. The more we all need each other and trade together, the less likely we are to war on one another.

Which, by the way, raises another thorny issue, and one that may be too political and potentially volatile to raise here (but it is nautical related) is -- with the saber rattling Russia has been doing lately, and with China's military expansion, is it safe and prudent for the U.S. to cut it's expenses and shrink it's Navy and Naval presence in the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans????
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Old 17-03-2008, 21:20   #87
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OK folks. This thread has gone on long enough with off topic discussions. The topic was where does someone go in global collapse. Can we please come up with options of where one would go. Otherwise I think it is time to close this thread.
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Old 17-03-2008, 21:21   #88
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Interesting thread, to say the least. Certainly these types of discussions might become a little touchy.
I am curious as to why the earlier thread was discontinued. (admin.??)
It got too far off the money talk and zero'd in on certain people, countries and political parties.

Money and politics are hard to separate but, if it cannot, it should not be discussed here. This discussion should be based on the markets and exchange rates, beyond that it becomes controversial and usually leads to a verbal battle which is out of the tone that we would like the forum to exist!

Now a statement like:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightfin
Which, by the way, raises another thorny issue, and one that may be too political and potentially volatile to raise here (but it is nautical related) is -- with the saber rattling Russia has been doing lately, and with China's military expansion, is it safe and prudent for the U.S. to cut it's expenses and shrink it's Navy and Naval presence in the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans????
starts to stir the pot and should not be responded to! It's a little thorn we may allow off hand but it keeps our eyes open for further errors. If it continues, then that's it! Hope that answers y'r question!

BTW It was not I who closed that earlier thread.
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Old 17-03-2008, 21:34   #89
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Bocas Del Toro Panama!!! When I was down there 2 years ago I watched football (US version, played mostly with hands ) had chicken wings, pizza, played poker, drank beer and after 11 hours hanging out with the Colorado native owner of La Rumba(if i remember correctly, alot of beer!!) my tab was $28.50. If our dollar continues on its current pace my tab would be adjusted to $41.25.... still not bad for a day considering my fiance and I went out Sunday to watch some college hoops 5 beers, 10 wings, chicken wrap, and appetizer and 2 hours cost $58 with tip .
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Old 17-03-2008, 21:39   #90
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Oh if anyone decides to run to Bocas, definitely check out Hotel La Rumba - Home page very friendly and cheap!!! I am trying wheels .
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